• Dave Schwartz
    187
    For years, we've all been saying how pace is dead.
    But what if it isn't?


    In this video:
    • Artificial Morning Line Object (aML)
    • Picking contenders using PSR (Just deadly)
    • Building a dynamic pace model from composites

  • RanchWest
    277
    Interesting, Dave. What is PSR? I don't necessarily mean specifically, but is that a speed number of some sort?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Interesting, Dave. What is PSR? I don't necessarily mean specifically, but is that a speed number of some sort?RanchWest

    PSR is a proprietary rating from Handicapper's Data Warehouse (HDW). It closely resembles BRIS' Prime Power rating.

    We have 3 such ratings, all similar, yet different.
    All 3 get 30-32% winners on the top-ranked horse in each race.
    (Which really is similar to BRIS' number.)
  • Bill Madsen
    7
    All 3 get 30-32% winners on the top-ranked horse in each race.Dave Schwartz

    That's a pretty helacious hit rate.
    Surely that can be turned into profit somehow?

    Madsen
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Surely that can be turned into profit somehow?Bill Madsen

    All such factors - and others that are high level - correlate so closely with the tote board that it makes it almost impossible to profit from them directly.

    In fact, one would do better tossing such horses.
    Except that they will will win crushing percentage of races.

    In Percentages & Probabilities 2022 I showed how those factors could be used for profit but not in the conventional way.
  • Colty
    3

    That was an interesting video.
    I especially liked the use of PSR to pick the primary contenders. Really very simple and straightforward.

    May have to start some more coaching with you. As you said the game is very difficult these days. Im not getting killed but not able to say I'm winning either.
  • Bill Madsen
    7
    All such factors - and others that are high level - correlate so closely with the tote board that it makes it almost impossible to profit from them directly.Dave Schwartz

    But certainly some go off at higher prices.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    But certainly some go off at higher prices.Bill Madsen

    Yes.
    And they become profitable at around 11/1 (as I recall).
    Across all races, at all tracks, you'd find about 3-4 bets per day.
  • Bill Madsen
    7
    Across all races, at all tracks, you'd find about 3-4 bets per day.Dave Schwartz

    That's not so terrible if they're really profitable.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    That's not so terrible if they're really profitable.Bill Madsen

    Just imagine that you have to actually watch EVERY SINGLE RACE to pull the trigger.
  • Bill Madsen
    7
    Okay. Get it now. Makes for a pretty boring day.
  • Bill Madsen
    7
    So, how do we become profitable then
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    So, how do we become profitable thenBill Madsen

    An easy answer does not exist.

    And if it did, I think most players would resist because it will necessitate a change in what they're doing.

    If there's anything I know about horse players it is that they like what they're doing - even if it isn't serving them well.
  • Bill Madsen
    7
    I can tell you that I'm sick of loosing.

    There's nothing I wouldn't do to be profitable.
  • RanchWest
    277
    I've done some research that is a little bit similar.

    Most serious researchers probably know that chaos races are easy to spot after the fact, but not quite so easy beforehand. Well, I think chaos ensues when none of the horses in the race really want to exert early energy. But I define that a little differently from most folks. I am only talking about dirt racing because grass tends to be late more often than dirt.

    Sartin followers are probably familiar with %M (percent median). It shows in which part of a race a horse exerts energy, early or late. I believe this is the true running style of the horse. But, from which race? I think all of them. Huh? I take the median of all of the %M's available and refer to it as M%M.

    Through a little research, I split the M%M figures into somewhat equal categories and those are my E, E/P, P, P/S, S and L running styles.

    I then assign numbers to those 6 running styles, 1 for E down to 6 for L.

    Then I average the running style numbers for all of the horses in the race. So, a typical race will be somewhere around 2.0 to 3.0.

    So, when that race running style is high (at least 3.2), I find the race becomes more likely to be chaotic. Why? I think it is because some horse or horses are called on to atypically expend early energy and that is not what they are accustomed to doing and the other horses try to keep up and many tire. You end up with a horse that has relatively poor speed figures winning the race coming from off the pace... chaos.

    So, which horse wins? I find that it is often a horse with low Quirin speed points and has shown an ability to close in recent races, in position and/or lengths, preferably both. Yes, even if it only went from 9th to 4th or even 5th to 4th. Not backing up is the key.

    Admittedly this is somewhat theoretical at this point. I haven't fully proven it. And, I am still looking for more criteria as to when to utilize it.

    It should be noted that my running styles are often much different from published running styles. In my opinion, the published styles tend to be better correlated to position rather than fractional speed.

    Also, this often does not work when there is a clearly superior horse in the race.

    Any thoughts?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187


    May I suggest that this topic is TOO GOOD to languish as a response in a thread?

    Perhaps copy/paste it into its own topic?
  • RanchWest
    277
    Dave, I have created a new topic. You may delete it from this thread if you wish. I don't think I know how to delete a post here.
  • RanchWest
    277
    Just imagine that you have to actually watch EVERY SINGLE RACE to pull the trigger.Dave Schwartz

    My state does not allow ADW's anymore. Are conditional wagers still available? Odds of 11/1 or more are probably not going to drop significantly in the last seconds, are they?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    My state does not allow ADW's anymore. Are conditional wagers still available? Odds of 11/1 or more are probably not going to drop significantly in the last seconds, are they?RanchWest

    Up or down.
    So, 8/1 is a pass and pays $28 but was missed, while the 12/1 that went off at 7/1 was a loser.

    It's like they have a mind of your own: "Dave is playing this system. Let's mess with his head."
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Great discussion!!! I attended the session last evening and it was very thought provoking.
    I recall speaking to HDW regarding another product and I was led to believe that the PSR rating is actually a projection of what each horse is expected to run today. Speed/pace, class, form, jockey and trainer were among the list of factors used to construct the rating.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    PSR rating is actually a projection of what each horse is expected to run today. Speed/pace, class, form, jockey and trainer were among the list of factors used to construct the rating.Tony Kofalt

    That is correct.
    Of course, at the end of the day, it is just a number, right?

    BTW, the biggest challenge with PSR is that it includes a jockey rating. Therefore, technically when there is a jockey change, the rating is invalid.

    Still, it is one heck of a number.

    We also have what we call cPower - an older version of PSR. Similar, but grandfathered in from before PSR came about in the early 2000s. It has a slightly different flavor - not quite as powerful and correlates with the tote board a little less.

    Then there is my own rating - simply called RTG. It is a composite factor because it is made up of 28 other factors and most of those are composites as well. Because only HSH users have RTG, it does not correlate near as much as cPwr or PSR, but still has a hit rate of 30% on the top horse.

    None of these produce anything resembling profit and are best used for predicting the final odds, although they can be way off-base at times. I like to say that using our Artificial Morning Line object predicts how the public SHOULD bet.

    The other thing that these high-level factors are good for is to pick contenders, which, logically, should correlate closely with the tote.

    I know that nobody likes hearing that. They'd rather be able to say, "My top horse in this race paid $42!" But the reality is that if your handicapping is any good, your top horse should be the favorite (or close to it) in almost every race.

    Not saying "best bet" or "horse to bet," but if you really thing that all those 8/1 & 12/1 horses are really the best horses in the field, your handicapping is probably not reality-based.

    Your thoughts?
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Dave, you know that I am always searching for a way to include price horses on my tickets. But you are correct as most of the races I handicap correlate to the tote board. The favorite in most races is my first or second selection. Seldom is a 20-1 shot one of my two top choices.
    I project a fig for each horse in every race. Intentionally, I attempt to project it higher or lower than the horses last race. That is why the PSR number caught my eye when I was reviewing ThoroManager. By projecting a number unlike a last race I think I distance myself from mimmicking the public to a small degree.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    That is why the PSR number caught my eye when I was reviewing ThoroManager. By projecting a number unlike a last race I think I distance myself from mimmicking the public to a small degree.Tony Kofalt

    I'll tell you a way to use that if you have the ability.

    Look down the PPs for each horse at the previous PSRs.
    wjwwxlao9b0ty22i.jpg
  • HorseSense
    5
    newbie here....
    Just watched the video....
    With this complicated software , your resorting to PSR with Early and Late?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    With this complicated software , your resorting to PSR with Early and Late?HorseSense

    The game is more difficult than ever and I have no interest in playing without long-term profitability.

    I'm always ready to be taught something - simple or complicated - that allows me to continue to win.

    Do you have anything to offer?
  • HorseSense
    5
    First off , going down to 4th place is a must.....a lot of price horses will end up there
    Plus NO half field + 1 stuff...4 is enough
    Next & most important handicap the race favorite ....find holes
    If fav has holes then you have your 3 to look at
    Plus for $1600 & $150 data this is not worth it.....
    I can get this info in Bris PDF for free
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Actually, you've described the basis of my handicapping - although for me it all begins with the low odds horses.
  • RanchWest
    277
    I can get this info in Bris PDF for freeHorseSense

    Why are you here? You're obviously smarter than any computer could ever be.
  • Jack Price
    16
    Just my 2 cents…. I don't have actual HSH PSR's, but something very similar.

    In reviewing the last three years in my database, I show the top 3 PSR’s (includes any ties for 3rd) captures 67.5% of all winners; however, this does not include the 2 point “gap” requirement separating 3rd and 4th place…this is the top 3 ranks only. At present, I don’t have PSR set up to properly perform gap analysis so I really can’t comment on the “statistical” viability of Dave’s approach….

    In my opinion, I would want at least 80% potential winners in any contender methodology and I am skeptical that Dave’s approach would accomplish this goal; however, using a “gap” approach has given me several ideas to pursue….

    Although, I am not an HSH subscriber, I do own most all of Dave’s other products from which many golden “nuggets” have been gleaned…. Dave, thanks for sharing your work…. I personally appreciate all that you do for your fellow horseplayers!
  • HorseSense
    5


    Of course the low odds horses are the favorites I'm mentioning......
    Does HSH have any proprietary factors to combat this?
  • HorseSense
    5


    I'm here to see if anybody is smarter than me.....or has stuff unforeseen in past 40 years :)
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