Interesting, Dave. What is PSR? I don't necessarily mean specifically, but is that a speed number of some sort?

Interesting, Dave. What is PSR? I don't necessarily mean specifically, but is that a speed number of some sort? — RanchWest

PSR is a proprietary rating from Handicapper's Data Warehouse (HDW). It closely resembles BRIS' Prime Power rating.

We have 3 such ratings, all similar, yet different.
All 3 get 30-32% winners on the top-ranked horse in each race.
(Which really is similar to BRIS' number.)

Surely that can be turned into profit somehow? — Bill Madsen

All such factors - and others that are high level - correlate so closely with the tote board that it makes it almost impossible to profit from them directly.

In fact, one would do better tossing such horses.
Except that they will will win crushing percentage of races.

In Percentages & Probabilities 2022 I showed how those factors could be used for profit but not in the conventional way.

But certainly some go off at higher prices. — Bill Madsen

Yes.
And they become profitable at around 11/1 (as I recall).
Across all races, at all tracks, you'd find about 3-4 bets per day.

That's not so terrible if they're really profitable. — Bill Madsen

Just imagine that you have to actually watch EVERY SINGLE RACE to pull the trigger.

So, how do we become profitable then — Bill Madsen

An easy answer does not exist.

And if it did, I think most players would resist because it will necessitate a change in what they're doing.

If there's anything I know about horse players it is that they like what they're doing - even if it isn't serving them well.

I've done some research that is a little bit similar.

Most serious researchers probably know that chaos races are easy to spot after the fact, but not quite so easy beforehand. Well, I think chaos ensues when none of the horses in the race really want to exert early energy. But I define that a little differently from most folks. I am only talking about dirt racing because grass tends to be late more often than dirt.

Sartin followers are probably familiar with %M (percent median). It shows in which part of a race a horse exerts energy, early or late. I believe this is the true running style of the horse. But, from which race? I think all of them. Huh? I take the median of all of the %M's available and refer to it as M%M.

Through a little research, I split the M%M figures into somewhat equal categories and those are my E, E/P, P, P/S, S and L running styles.

I then assign numbers to those 6 running styles, 1 for E down to 6 for L.

Then I average the running style numbers for all of the horses in the race. So, a typical race will be somewhere around 2.0 to 3.0.

So, when that race running style is high (at least 3.2), I find the race becomes more likely to be chaotic. Why? I think it is because some horse or horses are called on to atypically expend early energy and that is not what they are accustomed to doing and the other horses try to keep up and many tire. You end up with a horse that has relatively poor speed figures winning the race coming from off the pace... chaos.

So, which horse wins? I find that it is often a horse with low Quirin speed points and has shown an ability to close in recent races, in position and/or lengths, preferably both. Yes, even if it only went from 9th to 4th or even 5th to 4th. Not backing up is the key.

Admittedly this is somewhat theoretical at this point. I haven't fully proven it. And, I am still looking for more criteria as to when to utilize it.

It should be noted that my running styles are often much different from published running styles. In my opinion, the published styles tend to be better correlated to position rather than fractional speed.

Also, this often does not work when there is a clearly superior horse in the race.

Any thoughts?

May I suggest that this topic is TOO GOOD to languish as a response in a thread?

Perhaps copy/paste it into its own topic?

Dave, I have created a new topic. You may delete it from this thread if you wish. I don't think I know how to delete a post here.

Just imagine that you have to actually watch EVERY SINGLE RACE to pull the trigger. — Dave Schwartz

My state does not allow ADW's anymore. Are conditional wagers still available? Odds of 11/1 or more are probably not going to drop significantly in the last seconds, are they?

My state does not allow ADW's anymore. Are conditional wagers still available? Odds of 11/1 or more are probably not going to drop significantly in the last seconds, are they? — RanchWest

Up or down.
So, 8/1 is a pass and pays $28 but was missed, while the 12/1 that went off at 7/1 was a loser.

It's like they have a mind of your own: "Dave is playing this system. Let's mess with his head."

Great discussion!!! I attended the session last evening and it was very thought provoking.
I recall speaking to HDW regarding another product and I was led to believe that the PSR rating is actually a projection of what each horse is expected to run today. Speed/pace, class, form, jockey and trainer were among the list of factors used to construct the rating.

PSR rating is actually a projection of what each horse is expected to run today. Speed/pace, class, form, jockey and trainer were among the list of factors used to construct the rating. — Tony Kofalt

That is correct.
Of course, at the end of the day, it is just a number, right?

BTW, the biggest challenge with PSR is that it includes a jockey rating. Therefore, technically when there is a jockey change, the rating is invalid.

Still, it is one heck of a number.

We also have what we call cPower - an older version of PSR. Similar, but grandfathered in from before PSR came about in the early 2000s. It has a slightly different flavor - not quite as powerful and correlates with the tote board a little less.

Then there is my own rating - simply called RTG. It is a composite factor because it is made up of 28 other factors and most of those are composites as well. Because only HSH users have RTG, it does not correlate near as much as cPwr or PSR, but still has a hit rate of 30% on the top horse.

None of these produce anything resembling profit and are best used for predicting the final odds, although they can be way off-base at times. I like to say that using our Artificial Morning Line object predicts how the public SHOULD bet.

The other thing that these high-level factors are good for is to pick contenders, which, logically, should correlate closely with the tote.

I know that nobody likes hearing that. They'd rather be able to say, "My top horse in this race paid $42!" But the reality is that if your handicapping is any good, your top horse should be the favorite (or close to it) in almost every race.

Not saying "best bet" or "horse to bet," but if you really thing that all those 8/1 & 12/1 horses are really the best horses in the field, your handicapping is probably not reality-based.

Your thoughts?

Dave, you know that I am always searching for a way to include price horses on my tickets. But you are correct as most of the races I handicap correlate to the tote board. The favorite in most races is my first or second selection. Seldom is a 20-1 shot one of my two top choices.
I project a fig for each horse in every race. Intentionally, I attempt to project it higher or lower than the horses last race. That is why the PSR number caught my eye when I was reviewing ThoroManager. By projecting a number unlike a last race I think I distance myself from mimmicking the public to a small degree.

That is why the PSR number caught my eye when I was reviewing ThoroManager. By projecting a number unlike a last race I think I distance myself from mimmicking the public to a small degree. — Tony Kofalt

I'll tell you a way to use that if you have the ability.

Look down the PPs for each horse at the previous PSRs.

With this complicated software , your resorting to PSR with Early and Late? — HorseSense

The game is more difficult than ever and I have no interest in playing without long-term profitability.

I'm always ready to be taught something - simple or complicated - that allows me to continue to win.

Do you have anything to offer?

Actually, you've described the basis of my handicapping - although for me it all begins with the low odds horses.

I can get this info in Bris PDF for free — HorseSense

Why are you here? You're obviously smarter than any computer could ever be.

Just my 2 cents…. I don't have actual HSH PSR's, but something very similar.

In reviewing the last three years in my database, I show the top 3 PSR’s (includes any ties for 3rd) captures 67.5% of all winners; however, this does not include the 2 point “gap” requirement separating 3rd and 4th place…this is the top 3 ranks only. At present, I don’t have PSR set up to properly perform gap analysis so I really can’t comment on the “statistical” viability of Dave’s approach….

In my opinion, I would want at least 80% potential winners in any contender methodology and I am skeptical that Dave’s approach would accomplish this goal; however, using a “gap” approach has given me several ideas to pursue….

Although, I am not an HSH subscriber, I do own most all of Dave’s other products from which many golden “nuggets” have been gleaned…. Dave, thanks for sharing your work…. I personally appreciate all that you do for your fellow horseplayers!

Of course the low odds horses are the favorites I'm mentioning......
Does HSH have any proprietary factors to combat this? — HorseSense

Not so much proprietary , but of course.
We build OBJECTS - which are from 1 to 6 factors weighted together.

In my opinion, I would want at least 80% potential winners in any contender methodology and I am skeptical that Dave’s approach would accomplish this goal; however, using a “gap” approach has given me several ideas to pursue…. — Jack Price

I would contend (small pun coming) that the issue is not the win% on the top contenders.
The issue is figuring out which low odds horses to remove BEFORE selecting those contenders.

As you can imagine, the low odds horses will ALWAYS be at the top of the PSR list. If they aren't, then toss them as well.

I'm here to see if anybody is smarter than me.....or has stuff unforeseen in past 40 years — HorseSense

Dave always asks the big question - "Are you a winning player, then?"

Instead of telling us how smart you are, how about you show us some of those smarts?

I'm here to see if anybody is smarter than me.....or has stuff unforeseen in past 40 years :) — HorseSense

You've lost me. You can get everything out of free PP's. Who could be smarter than you?

You guys gotta know that winning players never share their secrets..... — HorseSense

That's funny.

Morning Line can you you that too.... — HorseSense

FYI: Top 3 MLO ranks (including ties) = 70.5% of all winners...that's a little short of 80%!

You guys gotta know that winning players never share their secrets.....

I just gave you the most important piece of the game....

Head it and go forward — HorseSense

My experience is that winning players - and especially professional players - absolutely do share what they do.

After all, if WINNING PLAYERS really are that smart (and we are), how would anyone know if information wasn't shared?

Ping @Tony Kofalt @Rich Val

I would contend (small pun coming) that the issue is not the win% on the top contenders.
The issue is figuring out which low odds horses to remove BEFORE selecting those contenders. — Dave Schwartz

Yes, big fan of your RVM (Race Value Metric) used to determine a playable race!

My experience is that winning players - and especially professional players - absolutely do share what they do.

After all, if WINNING PLAYERS really are that smart (and we are), how would anyone know if information wasn't shared? — Dave Schwartz

Summed it up perfectly.

But Dave - just remember that trolls can be fun.

@Rich Val

Just so you guys know, a few years ago I was struggling to win. Rich valentine came out of the woodwork and offered to coach me. We did 7 sessions over a couple of weeks that put me back on track.

Remember that, Rich?

Remember that, Rich? — Dave Schwartz

Of course.
Then you built a product from it - which is not in the store any more. I forget the name of it but the lessons were great.