ZaML - Special version of the standard aML object that has been calibrated for improved accuracy. (No more 32/1.)
Magnitudes from the top - Instantly shows how much better the top horse is compared to the rest of the field in terms of hit rate.
Imagine you have a strong horse on top. Now imagine this horse is THREE magnitudes better than his closest competitor. (Win-Dutch screen - right next to the "R" column.)
How to separate your contenders - Imagine that you've picked the 1,2,3 as contenders and want to know how to separate them. There is now a technique for Automatically deciding which objects to use for that.
Enhanced Pace Analysis - Added 3 new dynamic objects to Winning Profiles. (LP, E2,SR)
Using this strategy you can now KNOW with a single click which pace objects should be used in this race.
Added the 0-1-2-3+ Running Style to Dynamic Filters - This is FAR SUPERIOR to using the current 5+ ES points approach (i.e. +/- 4 points).

GAME CHANGER
Combine all of this together and you have a huge edge on the competition.

LOOK FOR THIS NEXT WEEK.

This is a FREE UPGRADE.
____________________________________________
Special note: If you ever bought HSH, you can come back with a new install at no cost.

You're still rocking them Conley!! — William Zayonce

Thanks William! Yes I am trying my hardest to squeeze out a few more winners before the meet is over on next Monday

Been kinda slow for that but I hope Friday and Monday will be good plays

You're still rocking them Conley!!

9/22/2022 Results
3/9 Top (33.3%)
5/9 T2 (55.5%)
8/9 T3 (88.8%)
8/9 T4 (88.8%)

172/439 Top (39.1%)
260/439 T2 (59.2%)
315/439 T3 (71.7%)
352/439 T4 (80.1%)

9/19/2022 Results
3/9 Top (33.3%)
4/9 T2 (44.4%)
7/9 T3 (77.7%)
8/9 T4 (88.8%)

2022 Season Stats
169/430 Top (39.3%)
255/430 T2 (59.3%)
307/430 T3 (71.3%)
344/430 T4 (80.0%)

Horses with poor speed numbers, poor pace potential, poor pace lines and poor connections just don’t win often enough to make them worthwhile win bet potential wagers, especially if you are making a single win wager.

↪Ken Fee

Good topic.

I am reading Ziemba’s Exotic Betting at the Racetrack, just getting started. He points up how many heavy favorites win.

So, in my opinion, there’s usually up to 4 horses in a race with a shot. Those 4 are horses that figure. My reason for going to a longshot is pace… always pace, with the setup for speed or close.

I look to see what the horses did in their pace line race. Then, the speed and class of their recent races. Then, figure how all that fits to the form cycle.

Board seems a bit quiet lately so I thought I would start a conversation. I have been seriously reviewing my approach. As a result of age and medical issues I'm always looking to cut back the number of races I'm playing. For the longest time I have looked for bad ML Fav's. This has always resulted in booms and busts.I have in the last week added another dimension. Historically, whenever I played I would play these races automatically. Since this wasn't working I stood back and thought for a change :grin: Going through my records and then the races, I found that there were too many low price horses winning in the majority of races I played. My choice of a bad low price was usually right on. The problem was a lot of times the winning horse was also a low price horse. This was a win 2 lose one and be back where I began or worse win 6 lose 4 and have a losing day. Other days I'm on the high paying horse and doing fine. Still it just felt like I was a hamster on the wheel. So this week I started looking at the race itself. What percentage of favorites won this exact type of race and what was the median payoff. Playing live this week I cut my plays by 2/3 and have managed to make a decent profit every day. (I went back 2 months and tested it first, but live testing always best for me). Since this is a test period I'm keeping my $$ low. Will run it for a month and then increase bets. Sorry, this was going to be a conversation about which races people pass but I got into my own mind.

↪Conley

I'd be remiss in my duties as Head Sarcasiast if I didn't mention that yesterday you went MINUS 34 for 9.

Just sayin'.
:)

9/17/2022 Results
6/9 Top (66.6%)
7/9 T2 (77.7%)
7/9 T3 (77.7%)
8/9 T4 (88.8%)

2022 Season Stats
166/421 Top (39.4%)
251/421 T2 (59.6%)
300/421 T3 (71.2%)
336/421 T4 (79.8%)

↪Conley

We all make mistakes.

158 +2 = 160 ..not 200.. — William Zayonce

Yep I see that now stupid me thanks for keeping me in check my good friend

158/403 on 9/12 , then 200/412 on 9/14.
9 races increased your total by 42 — William Zayonce

Yes on 9/12 that is what my record was then I had 2 winners on 9 races

158+2=200
403+9=412

So my win % jumped that much from 39.2 to 48.5 which makes sense

I respect your opinion and you having a positive relationship with me but I am still very confused with what you are saying, William

↪William Zayonce

You are probably correct I just don’t see that error honestly like 42 winners on top you mean or where I am confused here

Your top horse is hitting 48% winners? — Dave Schwartz

Correct! :)

9/14/2022 Results
2/9 Top (22.2%)
6/9 T2 (66.6%)
7/9 T3 (77.7%)
7/9 T4 (77.7%)

2022 Season Stats
200/412 Top (48.5%)
244/412 T2 (59.2%)
293/412 T3 (71.1%)
328/412 T4 (79.6%)

Hit 200 winners last night! Congrats to all! See you Friday!

9/12/2022 Results
3/9 Top (33.3%)
5/9 T2 (55.5%)
7/9 T3 (77.7%)
9/9 T4 (100.0%)

2022 Season Stats
158/403 Top (39.2%)
238/403 T2 (59.0%)
286/403 T3 (70.9%)
321/403 T4 (79.6%)

Great news Ranch=wishing you a speedy recovery

It’s been going surprisingly well. Lots of pain, but I may be released Monday. Tubes are out and that was the cause of most of the pain.

An outstanding performance, Conley!!

Hoping all goes well with your bypass surgery today Ranch! — William Zayonce

Wishing the same Ranch

Hoping everything goes over well and you can be on the road for a speed recovery!

9/7/2022 Results
5/9 Top (55.5%)
9/9 T2 (100.0%)
9/9 T3 (100.0%)
9/9 T4 (100.0%)

2022 Season Stats
148/385 Top (38.4%)
226/385 T2 (58.7%)
272/285 T3 (70.6%)
305/385 T4 (79.2%)

9/6/22 R7 TDN

6-2 paid $5.10 on $1.

9/6/22 R7 TDN

R8) 6 looks much the best at 1/2. Looking for a late run from 1 or 2 for second.

9/6/22 R7 TDN

6 took a lot of late money and went off as favorite. The 4 won. DH for 2nd,5 and 6. 4-6 exacta paid $3.40 on $1. My odds line had 4-6-2-5.

9/6/22 R7 TDN

At 2 MTP the 4 is even. While i don't particularly see the horse as bet against, I also don't see it as bet for. I'll take the 6 at 5/2.

As Barry Meadow so accurately concludes in the introduction of his book, The Skeptical Handicapper, “we are all winners…because we are horseplayers”.

So, my fellow “horseplayers”, let me say again, I was very lucky that a few of my selections found the wire first…. We all made good picks to “live” contenders; but, it’s Saratoga…it takes a huge amount of good fortune to get into the winner’s circle! I sincerely believe we could have the same contest ten different times and have ten different winners….

Ranch, thanks for doing all the heavy lifting…sending prayers your way for continued good health!

Good luck and good fortune to all my fellow “horseplayers”!

Ranch,
Thanks for all your hard work running things for a looooooong time!
Congrats to the top 3.

btw, has JACK ever written a book on handicapping?

↪Conley

Thank you. They're going to check out my heart. Hopefully I'll be better soon.

I had the best day today with a profit. — RanchWest

Congrats Ranch! We both managed to get a profit on the Spa's biggest race day!

Are you guys enjoying the Saratoga contest? Do you look forward to another contest? Do you like the win bet format?

Back when AQU had an inner dirt course, I participated in a P4 contest. Play one P4 per day, 200 minimum units. In the early days, there was no cap and I liked that format. I'm thinking that might be a good contest to have for the regular AQU meet (not the Belmont at Aqueduct meet). What do you think? I know some of you like horizontals.

I'm thinking having short-term contests in the meantime. Maybe one day or one week, various tracks.

But I am open to suggestions. Tell me what you think.

Pretty cool!! — William Zayonce

↪Conley

You did well!
:up: — Dave Schwartz

Thanks, guys! I hope to be on again next Friday with a new sound check lol!

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1BRKjngYeejKw

This was my very first live handicapping show with Belmont Beth talking about Race #3 at Saratoga

Have a look and let me know what you think!

PS: Sorry about the feedback need to change that next time

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