Derby winners are 0 - 14 after the Derby-- past 3 years. Have to go back to Mandaloun to find a Derby horse that won races after the Derby. Only two (2) horses have won the derby with 8 or more career starts since 2000. Mind That Bird (8) and California Chrome (10). Several theories are out there. My opinion is breeding and the effects of medication. Horses need to be lightly raced to attempt the 1 1/4 mile Derby or think about the Triple Crown.

years past a 9f race run in 1:48+ with a BSR of 105 or higher was next to an automatic bet. today they have a hard time running a 100 BSR. The point is: being lightly raced and thrust into a high pressure race like the derby is disastrous to them. Post derby -the past few winners have dismal records. I just think they don't have the proper "bottom" for long term racing and that's the difference from "then" to now. just saying

What’s surprising is that I finally figured out how to format my posts.

Field       Rank     Starts   Pays   Pay%   $Net     IV    PIV    ExW   PExW
1606 rjtOvr  1-1         11      2   18.2 $13.38   3.50   2.78    0.6    0.7
1607 rjtSurf 1-1         11      2   18.2 $13.38   3.50   2.99    0.6    0.7
 152 rcJky   1-1         11      1    9.1 $12.75   1.75   1.39    0.6    0.7
1608 rjtOff  1-1         11      1    9.1 $12.75   1.75   1.94    0.6    0.5
  26 rWork8  1-1         14      3   21.4 $11.39   4.13   2.39    0.7    1.3
  30 rWorkL1 1-1         16      3   18.8  $9.96   3.60   2.08    0.8    1.4
  36 rJkyRtg 1-1         15      1    6.7  $9.35   1.29   0.94    0.8    1.1
  27 rWork14 1-1         16      1    6.3  $8.99   1.20   1.04    0.8    1.0
1575 r2f06   1-1         12      2   16.7  $5.45   3.22   3.12    0.6    0.6
1559 rSp2f1y 1-1         13      2   15.4  $5.03   2.96   3.03    0.7    0.7
1580 r2f11   1-1         13      2   15.4  $5.03   2.96   3.03    0.7    0.7
   1 rPubCh  1-1         11      6   54.5  $4.85  10.50   2.83    0.6    2.1
1582 r2f13   1-1         14      2   14.3  $4.67   2.75   2.89    0.7    0.7
 180 rfDS    1-1         11      3   27.3  $4.18   5.25   2.96    0.6    1.0
 182 rfSpr   1-1         11      3   27.3  $4.18   5.25   2.96    0.6    1.0
1624 rtEP    1-1         17      3   17.6  $3.91   3.38   2.09    0.9    1.4
1650 rgSCHi  1-1         17      3   17.6  $3.91   3.42   2.16    0.9    1.4
  74 rSCAV4  1-1         19      4   21.1  $3.86   4.05   2.09    1.0    1.9
 176 rML     1-1         11      5   45.5  $3.82   8.75   2.55    0.6    2.0

https://archive.org/details/scientifichandic0000iras

I tend to play quite a lot of longer priced horses and like to employ the exacta as a place bet strategy. I will generally wheel these horses front and back with the two betting favorites in the race in the exacta. So being able to potentially eliminate some of these low priced horses from the bottom of the exacta would be advantageous.

Dave: I assume that your research is for cases where low odds horses can be tossed from win consideration. Has your research also come across situations where the low odds horse or horses can be tossed from the place hole as well?

I'll be working through live races with the simplified flow (E4+LP4) and also looking at ways to confirm/eliminate contenders with the other AI Pace objects. I'm focusing just on AI Objects for for now.

↪Dave Schwartz

I didn't much time yesterday. Will look at it a little more closely over the next few days. Here's a couple I noticed from yesterday.
05APR2025 AQU R12 (Wood Memorial). #1 Rodriguez. PED E. Click thru the Pace-- E 3 until the finish-- Mag 1's. Speed on the Rail and good cEP and cFT-- paid $9.30.
05APR2025 SAX R12. #2 Lammas. 10-1 ML. AI BH 1 1. RED E. Passes most of the Pace E's, EP's and LP's-- and all of the E, EP and LP psr and cls. Went off at 6-1, below the ML and AI (Neal)-- paid $14.40.

I've been using seems to be doing very well nice and quick and easy just the way I like it I also have been using an object from HSH called Pace Strength to either justify a contender or eliminate one with some success

↪Dave Schwartz

Flip-side. 25 Dirt races at MVR, PRX, GPX and TAM (no MSW, MdClm or 4-horse races). RED Running Styles EP, LP and SR. Only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
16 Turf races at GPX and TAM (EP, LP and SR)-- no 8 or 7 ES point winners.
15 Tapeta races at GPX (EP, LP and SR)-- only 1 winner with 8 or 7 ES points.
Sample size is small. But it does appear that ES 8 and 7 front runners struggle when the RED Running Style is not E.

Here's a good BALO check (unfortunately it doesn't happen all that often). NOTE: I've been testing all races except MSW, MdClm and 4-horse races.
Dirt races with the Red Running Style E or EP on the My Hcp screen. Horses with Running Style (RS - 402) 4 and 5 with Early Speed points (ES - 202) 0 or 1 Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
Turf races with the RED E (NOTE: I tested GPX and TAM). Horses with 0 or 1 Early Speed points only win about 10% of the time.
GPX Tapeta races with the RED E. Have tested the last 28 Tapeta races with the RED E-- have not come across a horse with 0 or 1 Early Speed points that won.
It takes a pretty good horse with 0 or 1 ES points to close and win a Running Style E race.

Dave messaged me with the following:

Please make a post in HANDICAPPING.
Big vulnerability in BALOs.
Must be morning line favorites.
Don't throw out 2nd choices.
(3rd or worse can probably be tossed.) — Dave S

He also said that this actually IMRPOVED his results.

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