i had a buddy who I knew didn't have much money, but he would bet $100 to win. That's probably several times that in today's dollars. So, I asked him... why so much?
So, he said, well I figured out... if I have money, i have women. If i have women, I have no money. So, the money is going away one way or the other. i might as well try to win enough to try to keep a woman just a little bit longer. — RanchWest
I think that the most under utilized thing is our own minds, our imagination. We can often become lost in the data and miss opportunities that arise in the roughly 30% of races that lie "outside the numbers. "
Imagining alternative possible scenarios can be productive. Looking backward, I would guess that roughly 10% of all races would have been unhittable because the races were unplayable or the winners won only because of unpredictable events occurring during their running.That leaves 20% of winners at good odds that might have been playable given an alternative perspective to the data alone. We look at a 20% win percentage as very good for a horse,jockey or trainer so why would we want to omit this group from consideration?
One simple ,practical demonstration of what I mean is to quickly handicap a race BEFORE considering the data . Ignore the speed and pace figures and focus on the running lines and the human connections and "imagine" a scenario in which each horse could win. THEN consult the data and compare results. Often they'll be similar but sometimes you'll find a nice overlay that just doesn't "seem to fit the numbers profile". Perhaps what I'm getting at, is the need to think about the race in addition to "calculating " it. Therein may lie that "something new to discover". — William Zayonce
what I mean is to quickly handicap a race BEFORE considering the data — William Zayonce
Is there anything new to discover?
I think there’s still a lot as to what is prioritized and what is used together. There’s also a lot that is under-utilized.
I construct my PP’s by importing data from Access to Excel — Jack Price
Another baseball quote I like is from Stan Musial. When asked his secret to being a great hitter, he replied, "Wait for your pitch and swing hard." — RanchWest
If I may, I'm going to play a little devil's advocate here for the sake of discussion and say when selecting a single representative paceline to predict today's outcome, This may give you the runner's "ability level"...but would seem to ignore the condition and form cycle pattern of the runner when that particular representative paceline was earned...which could have no relationship to the current condition and form cycle pattern...which greatly affects today's "ability level." Thanks guys. — Dustin Korth
.but would seem to ignore the condition and form cycle pattern of the runner — Dustin Korth