• Jim Pommier
    57
    Gulfstream, Woodbine, Turfway and soon Belmont. I recall in one of the BALO videos that there was no indicator for Woodbine being a synthetic track. I did see a "T" for turf. I wasn't sure if synthetic was left out intentionally or if there are plans to add it? Maybe there's an indicator that I didn't see.

    I also recall in one of the videos for turf races that you weren't too concerned with a horse not being a Mag 1 for Early Pace. I wasn't sure if any similar analysis has been done for synthetic tracks? Not sure if it's true, but some handicappers say that synthetic plays somewhat the same as turf. I'm not sure if this is true or not. Or is this something that can be analyzed during Beta?
  • Dave Schwartz
    303


    REALLY GREAT QUESTION!
    The results across all poly is inconclusive, with a tiny leaning towards only a very slight impact change.
    IOW, from a modeling POV, there are no hard-and-fast rules that fit, as with turf. More so in turf routes and almost none in turf sprints. (Anecdotally, they are too short and the turns too tight to be anything but a positional battle to the 1st call.)

    Instead, the internal "modeling" seems to handle this. Frankly, I am shocked that it works so well, considering that there is no data; no model being kept.

    Still, it is capable of looking at a race and saying, "This is what an E-style (or EP, etc) Winner's profile should look like."

    But I believe you're real interest is in THE GREEN NUMBERS.
    During the BALO Test video, I went aside looked at a couple of dozen turf races (from other days), and the results were really quite obvious - that strict enforcement of the 1s all the way across would be folly.

    Remember that the REAL WORK has been done.
    That is, the creation of the pace objects and the 1 thru 4 comparison to the whale betting. (Green Numbers)

    But personal interpretation of the output is what prevents us all from being on the same horses!
    Logically, you will make your own distinctions in your early experiences.


    ._________________
    There is a typo (apparently) in the new pars for WO dirt - which has been corrected.
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