• William Zayonce
    22
    The. Quirin definition...witin 2 lengths in a sprint or 3 lengths in a route. Steven
  • Steven
    108
    So we're saying a good race is:

    Within 90 days
    and
    (Horse was first
    or
    Horse finished second
    or
    Horse finished third
    or
    Horse was within 2 in a sprint
    or
    Horse was within 3 in a route)

    Am I right on the finished second/third?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    How would you define a good race?Steven

    Standard definition is from Dr. William Quirin (found in Percentages & Probabilities.)

    ukskkhkkudw7yvas.png
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Steven, you need not limit it to 90 days. Just dont go back beyond a 90 day layoff
  • Steven
    108
    I think this should cover it.
    Attachment
    GPX2021_DirtSprint (11K)
  • Steven
    108
    It's the last column

    GR%_RANK_49
  • William Zayonce
    22
    I think this should cover it.
    Attachment
    GPX2021_DirtSprint(11K)
    Steven
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Steven.
    Thank-you for your kind efforts!
    But I'm unable to open your attachment on my device ( PDF only). Can you suggest an app that will work for me?
  • Steven
    108
    Give me a bit. I’ll print it in pdf.
  • Steven
    108
    PDF
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_DirtSprint (226K)
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Steven.
    This is an interesting and eye opening study. Just a bit disappointed with the results.Thought there would be an edge there. Thank-you!
    Just wondering...does your software allow for isolating occasions where just one entry has a certain attribute?
  • Steven
    108
    Most everything I do is hard coded into the software (a result of self training). I would need to know what specifically you're looking for before I could really give you an answer.

    And FYI for dirt routes, turf sprint & routes.
    CATEGORIES:
    #1's
    #2's
    #3's
    TOTAL
    $WON
    $BET
    $NET
    ROI
    # WINS
    WIN%


    DIRT ROUTES
    GR%_RANK_49
    111
    78
    83
    1172
    $202.80
    $222.00
    -$19.20
    1.91
    22
    19.8%

    TURF SPRINTS
    GR%_RANK_49
    47
    43
    40
    541
    $82.60
    $94.00
    -$11.40
    1.88
    10
    21.3%

    TURF ROUTES
    GR%_RANK_49
    62
    54
    38
    688
    $58.40
    $124.00
    -$65.60
    1.47
    11
    17.7%
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Essentially, I'm looking to test factors that apply to 1 and only 1 entrant . For example; the only 1 to reach the 5pt threshold in QES pts, or perhaps being the only 1 to have 2 wins in last 10 starts .The list is long. My idea is to find which "unique" attributes can complement each other to boost a 20% hit rate to 30+%
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Two examples of simple "angles" that I like are these; "1 : the only entrant to win its last race ( combined with a few "complemenary " factors) ."2 : the only entrant to finish 2nd or "good" race ( again with qualifications).
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Two examples of simple "angles" that I like are these; "1 : the only entrant to win its last race ( combined with a few "complemenary " factors) ."2 : the only entrant to finish 2nd or "good" race ( again with qualifications).William Zayonce

    Interesting approach to spot plays.
    I have a project on my agenda for the spring which is called Subset Handicapping.

    It begins with a subset of horses and asks the question "What makes ________ horses win?"

    My concern about your current approach is that these angles you mention above are just not as exciting as you'd think.

    I know you have tacked on some other conditions to your angle but the bottom line is that the difference between "Good Race Last = YES" and "Good Race Last = NO" is really negligible. Sure, the IV & hit rate is higher but it does almost nothing for the $net ($2 is break even) because the gains are destroyed by the huge downward tick in the average odds .

    (from P&P, 2012)
    jolx9pxs3a4ylbff.png
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Interesting approach to spot plays.
    I have a project on my agenda for the spring which is called Subset Handicapping.

    It begins with a subset of horses and asks the question "What makes ________ horses win?"
    Dave Schwartz
    These are precisely the sorts of insights and stats that I'd like to see . While a "naked" angle might not be productive in isolation but shows a 20% or better win% , results might improve with the addition of "complementary" factors.
  • Steven
    108
    William, your angles would involve much more programming and work than I want to take on right now.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187


    Be aware that this will be a PRODUCT - as opposed to something free.
  • William Zayonce
    22

    Be aware that this will be a PRODUCT - as opposed to something free.
    5mReplyOptions1
    .Of course! Wouldn't expect you to do all the heavy lifting without compensation! Im certain that it'll be worth the investment.
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Steven.

    • William, your angles would involve much more programming and work than I want to take on right now.
      Thanks for your help so far Steven! I understand that it's a large and cumbersome project.
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