• Tom
    48
    About a year ago, Dave got me interested in a new handicapping idea, and I began doing some research. After several ideas failed to deliver, I went back to basics and watched some DS videos and read up on Reynolds numbers and set out to find what wins at FL and Belmont. FL was easier, no turf, only a handful of 2yo races.....I have 100 races in my model, and things are looking promising. I would like to post the sheet here and invite comments, suggestions, and share the information with the group.
    If I can't post the data here, I set up a link to it.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    If I can't post the data here, I set up a link to it.Tom

    Sure.
    What format do you want to post it in?

    Worksheet or PDF file?
    Click the Upload file button.
    (Let me know if it doesn't appear on your toolbar.)

    Graphics?
    Just drag & drop.
  • Conley
    296
    Can't wait to see your work Tom!
  • Tom
    48
    OK, the attached spreadsheet is my model for FL race track in beautiful downtown Farmington. The data comes right off the 7 columns at the bottom of the BRIS ULTIMATE PPs, Speed last race, back speed, current class, average competitive level, prime power, early pace last race and late pace last race. I also added the E/L rankings 0r the place horse as well, out of curiosity.

    The numbers were taken as is, no substitutes, no influence from me. The summary box in the upper right corner is the "7-4-1" scoring for each column. Field size is included so I can look at small and large fields.

    Next step is break it down by sprint-route, and make Reynolds fields.
    Attachment
    WHAT WINS AT FL.ods (30K)
  • Dave Schwartz
    187

    Maybe some column heading descriptions?
  • Tom
    48
    SRL SPEES LAST RACE
    SRB BACK SPEED
    CCL CURRENT CLASS LEVEL
    ACL AVERAGE COMP LEVEL
    PP PRIME POWER
    E EARLY PACE LAST RACE
    L LATE PACE LAST RACE
    E EP LAST, PLACE HORSE
    L LP LAST, PLACE
    PAY WIMN PAYOFF
    NH NUMBER OF HORSES
  • Tony Kofalt
    277


    Thanks Tom- can't wait to dig into this
  • Tom
    48
    I have enough races at Belmont to post after this weekend.
    Some interest stuff going on there.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187

    I look forward to hearing about it.
  • Conley
    296
    Quick question for Tom:

    Do you include all races in your model or do you "filter" races that you like? (Claimers/Allowance etc)
  • Tom
    48
    I use most all races, unless it is a MSW with mostly FTS, but if there are 4 horses, I use it. That's why I put notes for MSW 2yos, so I can filter them out.
  • Steven
    108
    I thought this was most interesting so I went back and reviewed WHAT WINS - Dave Schwartz and worked up the attached for the spring meet at Keeneland. I am not to the point where I could actually use this data but I thought that some one else might have an insight or three and would share.

    Most headings I hope are self explanatory but if not.... (the _# is just to help keep me straight in the code, it's not relavent to much of anything else)

    TRK_1 track name
    DATE_2 date of race
    RACE_3 race number
    ML_10 morning line odds
    FINSH_15 finish
    PT_ODDS_16 post time odds
    WIN_17 win payoff
    PLACE_18 place payoff
    SHOW_19 show playoff
    ML_RANK_20 morning line odds rank
    PT_RANK_21 post time odds rank
    PRIMEP_RANK_22 prime power rank
    EP_RANK_23 early pace (my version) rank
    LP_RANK_24 late pace (my version) rank
    SAR_RANK_25 some combination of Sartin fps numbers (I would have to look closely to see the computations)
    B_365_RANK_26 best speed in 365 days rank
    BL2_RANK_27 best of last two speeds rank
    TR/JO_RANK_28 combined trainer jockey win percentage rank
    LRS_RANK_29 last race speed rank
    Attachment
    KEE_SPRNG.CSV (8K)
  • Conley
    296
    I use most all races, unless it is a MSW with mostly FTS, but if there are 4 horses, I use it. That's why I put notes for MSW 2yos, so I can filter them out.Tom
    Ok that’s probably a good idea to filter those out. Thanks for the explanation!
  • Dave Schwartz
    187

    This looks like good work, Steven! :clap: :clap:

    It was work like this that allowed me to turn everything right side up a couple of months ago.

    Much of that development was the result of working with a couple of other guys. I just cannot emphasize enough how important collaboration is.

    Aside from splitting the workload, it also provides a different POV; different ideas.

    Of course, Steven, our paths have crossed before. I know your work is top notch.

    (Could use an extra 500 columns, maybe. LOL)
    (Dang, was that my BIG DATA outlook showing through?)
  • Ralph
    1
    Here some ES data for all from this weekend Tracks, Bel,Keen,Sa,Gulf
    The Results pretty much speaks for it self Dave win Rate from Video 6 was 13.6% Well this weekend even worst at a 10.53% .. I think it is a great data info for this tag line Finding out what wins ...even though the sample size is small 3 day 4 tracks it correlates with the BIG sample to a extent..
    Hopefully this will help get the wheels turning for ways you like to play or not. I just wanted to see what the recent numbers where for myself. A little side note no matter what the ES rating was of the horse was above 11 to 1 odd or greater record was 1 out of 59 horses the winner paid $50 bucks you can do the math im sure. Also this is for all turf dirt claming stakes as long as there was a ES horse in the race it got logged, Have a nice day all
    E horses only
    winners	payouts	Total starters	win pct	cost		$net	
    18	        $192.5	 171	                10.53%	$342	1.1257309942	very sad
    							
    rating	wins  	starts	payout$				
    e8	        3	        26	            23.4				
    e7	        1	        15                50				
    e6	        7	        46	            45.3				
    e5	        5	        37	            39.8				
    e4	        2	        23	            34				
    e3	        0	        10	            0				
    e2	        0	          2	            0				
    e1	        0	          4	            0				
    e0	        0	          8	            0
    
  • Dave Schwartz
    187


    Good work.
    It does dominate.

    BTW... Tried to straighten out your columns a little with code tags.
    Will have to get some vids & screenshots going for how to use those.

    Basically, write it in a text editor that lets you use COURIER (a fixed-width font), then paste it in. Finally, wrap that in "code tags." (The 5th icon from the left that looks like <>)
  • Ralph
    1
    yes looks much better thank you Dave .. I just didn't want to post the spread sheet rather just give a quick overview...Thank you Dave as always for the Quality info and insight. Have a great week.
  • Steven
    108


    Thank you Dave, that's very kind of you.

    This is (as well as I am) still a work in progress and I hope to add to the What Wins program/spreadsheet as I go along. I'm all for massive amounts of data, I'm just not sure what would be worth putting in there. I have added Quirin Early Speed points and I'm looking for other factors to add. I don't think I'll ever get to 500 but I am already set up for about 100 (I just need factors). Anybody got something they want to look at (low level type factor, best speed at distance or track for example would be okay. Nothing that involves too many calculations)?
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Highest QES points percentage (of field total) might be interesting.
  • William Zayonce
    22
    How much of an advantage ( in percentage) is needed to produce a profitable play.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Highest QES points percentage (of field total) might be interesting.Zayonce William


    Surprisingly, that is a very disappointing factor.
    Check out the Early Speed series, if you haven't already.

    How much of an advantage ( in percentage) is needed to produce a profitable play.Zayonce William
    You have to see it from an "out-perform the tote board" point of view.
    If you've not read this book, Percentages & Probabilities, there is a lot in it like that.
  • Steven
    108
    What's Winning at GPX 2021 Dirt Sprints

    If you have any questions on anything, please let me know
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_DirtSprint (12K)
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Here's a factor that I'd like to see stats on.
    Number or percentage of wins and or "good" races in past 12 ,excluding "irrelevant" races and races prior to a 90 day layoff and including/excluding QES or Speed rating rank.A high percentage ( 80% or better) has been 1 of my tools but knowing the actual long term win % would i be helpful .
  • William Zayonce
    22
    If these stats are already included in "Percentages and probabilities " please advise, I'll order a copy.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    If these stats are already included in "Percentages and probabilities " please advise, I'll order a copy.Zayonce William

    Good races and some other stuff are in PAST 10 and a bunch of items in LAST 90 DAYS are included.
    There are HUNDREDS of factors.

    There are also those SAME HUNDREDS of factors (data tables) spread across 25 different kinds of races. Over 1,300 extra pages!

    Buy it here.

    wrqudq0q5736v3tz.png

    • Allowances Sprints & Routes
    • Claiming Sprints & Routes (including N2L)
    • Graded Sprints, Routes, Turf
    • Maidens, etc.
    • Young Horses
    • Marathons
  • Steven
    108

    Zayonce, can you explain this mathmatically? I have to program this all in and I don't really follow what you're asking.
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Thanks Steven.
    What Im curious about is a win percentage for entries which have a minimun of 3 good races in their last 10 with at least 1 win and boast the highest percentage of good races in the field . The other factors are finetuning( eliminating irrelevant races and races prior to a 90 day layoff.)
  • Steven
    108
    How would you define a good race?
bold
italic
underline
strike
code
quote
ulist
image
url
mention
reveal
youtube
tweet
Add a Comment

Please register to see more

Forum Members always see the latest updates and news first. Sign up today.