HQ COURSES STORE PRICING ABOUT
  • Tony Kofalt
    403
    Couple of horses at Bel on thursday that may open a clear lead over their rivals. Can either get home?
    Race 4- Musical America
    Race 8- Q F Seventy Five
    Both figure to offer fair value. Any thoughts?
  • RanchWest
    503
    Here's my time decayed BRIS pace on those two for 2F, 4F, 6F and LT
    R4:
    Musical America 205 218 204 114
    R8
    Q F Seventy Five 190 191 201 177

    So, I'd say Musical America is very likely to fade.
    Q F Seventy Five has a much better chance of closing the deal. Of course, on the turf it is tougher for the speed to hold. But my pace line is the 4th line and if you don't mind it being slightly over a year old, it suggests that this one looks good in this field. My form factors all look good on this one and the BRIS Prime Power is third highest in the field. I would include him on a horizontal.
  • Tom
    90
    R4 Musical America, upside, looks positionally to be alone out there, downside, terrible trainer and rider, but that could really boost your price.
    The 2 has shown early speed before, under today's jock, and could be in the mix, but has inferior early pace figs.

    8 QF75 looks to be verly lonely out there and should be able to hold on.
  • RanchWest
    503
    In R8, the ML fave looks to be likely closest early to QF75, but I don't think can go on late. I see that as a positive for QF75, but he will still have to hold off the late rush from 6, 7, 3, 9, 8.
  • Tom
    90
    TFUS agrees with you on the 8th race
  • RanchWest
    503
    Okay, so the 4 is scratched in R8. That will relieve some pressure on QF75.

    There is the matter of Pletcher's #5 having debuted on turf followed by two all-weather trips and now returning to turf off his three foreign races. A bit of an unknown factor.
  • RanchWest
    503
    Musical America didn't even have the lead at any call and faded to 4th.
  • RanchWest
    503
    #1 stayed closer than usual and closed the deal in R8.
  • Tony Kofalt
    403
    You guys hit the nail on the head! Neither horse was able be a factor in the lane. I am surprised that Musical America didnt fight for the lead. Not that I expected a win I just thought he would make a better account of himself in a soft race.
  • RanchWest
    503
    The foreign horse in R8 went out 2nd early and was taken up.
  • Tom
    90
    Welcome to Belmont.
    Somedays, it's like a big surprize party! lol.
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