Couple of horses at Bel on thursday that may open a clear lead over their rivals. Can either get home?
Race 4- Musical America
Race 8- Q F Seventy Five
Both figure to offer fair value. Any thoughts?
Here's my time decayed BRIS pace on those two for 2F, 4F, 6F and LT
R4:
Musical America 205 218 204 114
R8
Q F Seventy Five 190 191 201 177
So, I'd say Musical America is very likely to fade.
Q F Seventy Five has a much better chance of closing the deal. Of course, on the turf it is tougher for the speed to hold. But my pace line is the 4th line and if you don't mind it being slightly over a year old, it suggests that this one looks good in this field. My form factors all look good on this one and the BRIS Prime Power is third highest in the field. I would include him on a horizontal.
R4 Musical America, upside, looks positionally to be alone out there, downside, terrible trainer and rider, but that could really boost your price.
The 2 has shown early speed before, under today's jock, and could be in the mix, but has inferior early pace figs.
8 QF75 looks to be verly lonely out there and should be able to hold on.
In R8, the ML fave looks to be likely closest early to QF75, but I don't think can go on late. I see that as a positive for QF75, but he will still have to hold off the late rush from 6, 7, 3, 9, 8.
Okay, so the 4 is scratched in R8. That will relieve some pressure on QF75.
There is the matter of Pletcher's #5 having debuted on turf followed by two all-weather trips and now returning to turf off his three foreign races. A bit of an unknown factor.
You guys hit the nail on the head! Neither horse was able be a factor in the lane. I am surprised that Musical America didnt fight for the lead. Not that I expected a win I just thought he would make a better account of himself in a soft race.