• Tony Kofalt
    295
    Couple of horses at Bel on thursday that may open a clear lead over their rivals. Can either get home?
    Race 4- Musical America
    Race 8- Q F Seventy Five
    Both figure to offer fair value. Any thoughts?
  • RanchWest
    423
    Here's my time decayed BRIS pace on those two for 2F, 4F, 6F and LT
    R4:
    Musical America 205 218 204 114
    R8
    Q F Seventy Five 190 191 201 177

    So, I'd say Musical America is very likely to fade.
    Q F Seventy Five has a much better chance of closing the deal. Of course, on the turf it is tougher for the speed to hold. But my pace line is the 4th line and if you don't mind it being slightly over a year old, it suggests that this one looks good in this field. My form factors all look good on this one and the BRIS Prime Power is third highest in the field. I would include him on a horizontal.
  • Tom
    71
    R4 Musical America, upside, looks positionally to be alone out there, downside, terrible trainer and rider, but that could really boost your price.
    The 2 has shown early speed before, under today's jock, and could be in the mix, but has inferior early pace figs.

    8 QF75 looks to be verly lonely out there and should be able to hold on.
  • RanchWest
    423
    In R8, the ML fave looks to be likely closest early to QF75, but I don't think can go on late. I see that as a positive for QF75, but he will still have to hold off the late rush from 6, 7, 3, 9, 8.
  • Tom
    71
    TFUS agrees with you on the 8th race
    Attachment
    qf75 (24K)
  • RanchWest
    423
    Okay, so the 4 is scratched in R8. That will relieve some pressure on QF75.

    There is the matter of Pletcher's #5 having debuted on turf followed by two all-weather trips and now returning to turf off his three foreign races. A bit of an unknown factor.
  • RanchWest
    423
    Musical America didn't even have the lead at any call and faded to 4th.
  • RanchWest
    423
    #1 stayed closer than usual and closed the deal in R8.
  • Tony Kofalt
    295
    You guys hit the nail on the head! Neither horse was able be a factor in the lane. I am surprised that Musical America didnt fight for the lead. Not that I expected a win I just thought he would make a better account of himself in a soft race.
  • RanchWest
    423
    The foreign horse in R8 went out 2nd early and was taken up.
  • Tom
    71
    Welcome to Belmont.
    Somedays, it's like a big surprize party! lol.
  • Conley
    402
    r4; 88/91/83/88
    Projecting the stretch to be the slowest time/split of the race
    r8; 80/83/85/86
    Projecting the start to be the slowest time/split of the race

    In R#4 I was projecting a somewhat fast pace going from the 1/2 to 3/4 and for R#8 I was projecting a slow race to start and then pick up after

    Race 4 was favouring E E/P at the meet but was 50/50 during the week for E and P horses
    Since I thought the pace would be fast at the 1/2 way mark of the race I would eliminate the E and P horses which were #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 but I did keep #2 #3 #5 #6 since I thought they would keep their stamina and also showed strong #ers at the end now with the #1 and #1a I would keep them both because they are late closers and figured they would be around in the end so now I have the contenders of #1/1a #2 #3 #5 #6; Now we narrow down our horses to 3 which I would keep #1/#1a for late closing #2 showing strong #ers at the end #3 showing good #ers but throw out the #5 and #6 for having early speed so our new top 4 are 1-1a-2-3 which the #3 won 1a was 2nd and 2 was 3rd!

    Race 5 was favouring E and P horses 50/50 for the meet but was 100% of P horses during the week so I would eliminate E horses due to myself projecting the P and S horses to favour due to the slow pace upfront so that eliminates the #2 #4 and #8 out of contention; So now lets narrow down the rest of the field! (not in order) Keeping #7 #1 #6 #3 #10 showing strong #ers later on and we will throw out #9 #8 not showing strong #ers late; Now narrowing our contenders to 4 which we will do with the best #ers late which were #7 #6 #1 and #3 throw out #10 just narrowly getting beat by #3 numbers so our Top 4 are now 1-3-6-7 which #1 won #7 was 2nd #3 was 3rd and #6 was 4th!

    I am still learning all of this and sorry for past posting but projecting the pace with my own numbers will soon pay off which it did in both of these races! And showing this as an example not for bragging rights
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