• RanchWest
    278
    Here's something I found on another board. It actually works better than I thought it would.

    (1) I take last 6 races , write down the 3 highest speed ratings.
    (2) Horse's finish For 1st 20 points, 2nd 16 points 3rd 13 points
    (3) Add speed ratings and finish point (0 if they have no 1st,2nd,or 3rd) just use their speed score.
    (4) Add score and when you get total subtract the lengths back of their finish of the 3 races
    (5) Place in order those are the class.

    I disagree on it being the class, but I do find it to be a reasonable figure for ability. If I want it to be more standardized, I divide it by the race par. Seems to be at least as good as most of the computations I've seen.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187


    Here's an idea that has stood the test of time for over 2 decades.

    1. Build COLLECTIVE SPEED
    Take every speed rating for every horse and put them into an array.
    i.e. 10 horses, with 10 pacelines each = 100 speed ratings.

    2. Sort Speed Ratings from Best-to-Worst

    3. Any horse above 8/1 that has a rating in the top 6...
    ... is a bet to run exactly 2nd.
    Thus...
    • bet to place
    • key in 2nd position in exactas, trifectas, supers

    4. Special Note: They RARELY WIN!
  • RanchWest
    278
    Is that 8/1 on the tote board?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Is that 8/1 on the tote board?RanchWest

    Yes.

    Thus, you'll occasionally get burned by a horse at 8/1 at gate time who goes down. Truth is that it's the double-digit horses that perform the best.
  • RanchWest
    278
    From my observations, most horses above 6/1 go up near post time. There's always the exceptions.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187


    Except the ones that are very well-intended.
  • RanchWest
    278
    Except the ones that are very well-intended.Dave Schwartz

    Yes, I followed a horse yesterday that went slowly from 6/1 to 5/2 and then floated up to 3/1 and won. I think that was the one I mentioned to Tony.
  • Biniak
    48
    Interesting discussion fellas. Boy Dave you really like that 8/1 threshold.
  • RanchWest
    278
    Interesting discussion fellas. Boy Dave you really like that 8/1 threshold.Biniak

    That's probably, in part, because the average payout is, I think, around 9/2. That's average. The median is lower, somewhere around 5/2. Dave can tell us more precisely. The average gets skewed way up by the infrequent 50/1 and such horses.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    That's probably, in part, because the average payout is, I think, around 9/2. That's average. The median is lower, somewhere around 5/2. Dave can tell us more precisely. The average gets skewed way up by the infrequent 50/1 and such horses.RanchWest

    I'd say that you're pretty close. Probably a little higher; used to be way higher. (Like $12.80.)
  • Biniak
    48
    Thanks Dave and Ranch. It's not often you find a Place Strategy that works especially that long!
  • RanchWest
    278
    Yes, and Sartin and Quirin are among those who pointed out that Place and Win are not selected the same way.
  • Biniak
    48
    Dave,

    I could use a clarification from P&P 2022 videos. Are you suggesting the BE SR, B2E SR and B2ofL3 have the highest ratio of ratios (around 1.15 - 1.16) ?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Kind of difficult to recall precisely which are which - but 1.15 or so is pretty high.
  • Biniak
    48
    So they have wager value?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    So they have wager value?Biniak

    The videos show that those point to factors that SHOULD do well when low odds horses that are ranked 1st don't win.
  • Steven
    108
    I'll put this here and in the Ultimate Odds Line thread but here is Tom's Ultimate Odds Lince Calculator V2.5 WITH COLLECTIVE SPEED! No complete instructions yet (if I get there) but there is a new button "COLLECTIVE SPEED" and a new column "COLL".

    The COLL column is just the sum of all of the horses speed figures as per Dave above and when you double click a race you'll get a single race view but if you click the "COLLECTIVE SPEED" button, you will get a complete card view. And I don't want to to make this too easy, so you may have to click the "COLL" heading a couple of times to get them in descending order.

    Post questions and comments in the Ultimate Odds Line thread please.
  • Biniak
    48
    Steven,

    Very nice of you to do this. Does this work with other file formats other than BRIS?
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