Here's an idea that has stood the test of time for over 2 decades.

1. Build COLLECTIVE SPEED
Take every speed rating for every horse and put them into an array.
i.e. 10 horses, with 10 pacelines each = 100 speed ratings.

2. Sort Speed Ratings from Best-to-Worst

3. Any horse above 8/1 that has a rating in the top 6...
... is a bet to run exactly 2nd.
Thus...

• bet to place
• key in 2nd position in exactas, trifectas, supers

4. Special Note: They RARELY WIN!

Is that 8/1 on the tote board?

Is that 8/1 on the tote board? — RanchWest

Yes.

Thus, you'll occasionally get burned by a horse at 8/1 at gate time who goes down. Truth is that it's the double-digit horses that perform the best.

From my observations, most horses above 6/1 go up near post time. There's always the exceptions.

Except the ones that are very well-intended.

Except the ones that are very well-intended. — Dave Schwartz

Yes, I followed a horse yesterday that went slowly from 6/1 to 5/2 and then floated up to 3/1 and won. I think that was the one I mentioned to Tony.

Interesting discussion fellas. Boy Dave you really like that 8/1 threshold. — Biniak

That's probably, in part, because the average payout is, I think, around 9/2. That's average. The median is lower, somewhere around 5/2. Dave can tell us more precisely. The average gets skewed way up by the infrequent 50/1 and such horses.

That's probably, in part, because the average payout is, I think, around 9/2. That's average. The median is lower, somewhere around 5/2. Dave can tell us more precisely. The average gets skewed way up by the infrequent 50/1 and such horses. — RanchWest

I'd say that you're pretty close. Probably a little higher; used to be way higher. (Like $12.80.)

Yes, and Sartin and Quirin are among those who pointed out that Place and Win are not selected the same way.

Kind of difficult to recall precisely which are which - but 1.15 or so is pretty high.

So they have wager value? — Biniak

The videos show that those point to factors that SHOULD do well when low odds horses that are ranked 1st don't win.

I'll put this here and in the Ultimate Odds Line thread but here is Tom's Ultimate Odds Lince Calculator V2.5 WITH COLLECTIVE SPEED! No complete instructions yet (if I get there) but there is a new button "COLLECTIVE SPEED" and a new column "COLL".

The COLL column is just the sum of all of the horses speed figures as per Dave above and when you double click a race you'll get a single race view but if you click the "COLLECTIVE SPEED" button, you will get a complete card view. And I don't want to to make this too easy, so you may have to click the "COLL" heading a couple of times to get them in descending order.

Post questions and comments in the Ultimate Odds Line thread please.