Board seems a bit quiet lately so I thought I would start a conversation. I have been seriously reviewing my approach. As a result of age and medical issues I'm always looking to cut back the number of races I'm playing. For the longest time I have looked for bad ML Fav's. This has always resulted in booms and busts.I have in the last week added another dimension. Historically, whenever I played I would play these races automatically. Since this wasn't working I stood back and thought for a change
Going through my records and then the races, I found that there were too many low price horses winning in the majority of races I played. My choice of a bad low price was usually right on. The problem was a lot of times the winning horse was also a low price horse. This was a win 2 lose one and be back where I began or worse win 6 lose 4 and have a losing day. Other days I'm on the high paying horse and doing fine. Still it just felt like I was a hamster on the wheel. So this week I started looking at the race itself. What percentage of favorites won this exact type of race and what was the median payoff. Playing live this week I cut my plays by 2/3 and have managed to make a decent profit every day. (I went back 2 months and tested it first, but live testing always best for me). Since this is a test period I'm keeping my $$ low. Will run it for a month and then increase bets. Sorry, this was going to be a conversation about which races people pass but I got into my own mind.
I am reading Ziemba’s Exotic Betting at the Racetrack, just getting started. He points up how many heavy favorites win.
So, in my opinion, there’s usually up to 4 horses in a race with a shot. Those 4 are horses that figure. My reason for going to a longshot is pace… always pace, with the setup for speed or close.
I look to see what the horses did in their pace line race. Then, the speed and class of their recent races. Then, figure how all that fits to the form cycle.
Horses with poor speed numbers, poor pace potential, poor pace lines and poor connections just don’t win often enough to make them worthwhile win bet potential wagers, especially if you are making a single win wager.
It seems that you've found the solution to your "too many plays" problem. Passing races in which we have a poor win rate or which we find confusing can only help to boost our win rate and profit.. Personally, I tried to play only those races in which I had a strong and "articulatable" opinion.
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