Comments

  • Picking Losers is the Best Whale Killer
    Of course ,I'm aware that the participation rate will necessarily fluctuate from pool to pool, which is why I suggested "average" participation. Am I correct in assuming that the ROI of +7.5% to 9% is factoring in the rebates?William Zayonce

    Yes.
  • What should an odds line be?
    The "process" is certainly not unique but it's objective is find selections which are "unique in that field". A white horse is not unique (there are plenty of white horses in the world) however ,a white horse in a field of horses which are not white is unique in that field. This is,of course, not a relevant handicapping factor ( unless we know that white horses run faster than nonwhite ones and a large portion of players can't see that it's white )William Zayonce

    We see this differently.
  • What should an odds line be?
    Ah... I was referring to unique permutations.
  • Picking Losers is the Best Whale Killer
    Have I made an inaccurate assumption?William Zayonce

    You'll have to be the judge of that, but I would say "no."

    Not +/- 3% but rather precisely -3.5% has been the target.
    This allows an ROI of +7.5% to +9%.
    The model calls for the bankroll to be churned 125x per year.

    Limited to 30/35% depends upon the track takeout & rebate.

    Odds levelling out: They do not "level out." They skew towards the efficient -3.5% for them, which equates to almost pure takeout rates for us.
  • Picking Losers is the Best Whale Killer
    3: the possibility that many players are simply getting more efficient, perhaps by using computer programs .?William Zayonce

    This is the real challenge.

    4 people out of a 1000 win.
    6 out of 6 whales win.

    There's the math.
  • What should an odds line be?
    The higher the rebate, the higher the percentage of whale money at the track.
    About 34% of total win pool at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    About 10% of total win pool at tracks like SA, CD, etc.

    The higher the rebate, the greater the percent of pool that shows up after the gate opens.
    About 60% of total win pool at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    About 45% of total win pool at tracks like SA, CD, etc.

    Using that math, for every $100 wagered "late"
    $57 will be whale money at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    (34 / 60 = 56.7%)
    $22 will be whale money at tracks like CD, SA, etc.
    (10 / 45 = 22.2%)
    William Zayonce

    Well, it was WRONG.
    Using that math, for every $100 wagered "late"
    $57 will be whale money at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    (34 / 60 = 56.7%)
    $22 will be whale money at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    (10 / 45 = 22.2%)
  • What should an odds line be?
    Fixed MY typo in the original and your repost.
  • What should an odds line be?
    Well, if it's working, keep doing it.
  • What should an odds line be?
    There's also the horses that match what you know works and nobody has it.RanchWest

    Nobody has it for the same reason.
  • What should an odds line be?
    I built such a product years ago: Vulnerable Favorites.
  • What should an odds line be?
    I would think it's the same process that identifies false, vulnerable or" play against" choices in the top 2 spots.William Zayonce

    I'd completely agree.

    Do you have such a process yourself?

    If so, how effective is it?
  • What should an odds line be?
    What about an engine that identifies win candidates in the 40% of races that those top 2 lose?William Zayonce

    How do you identify just those race?
  • What should an odds line be?
    Finding which contenders will likely take the most action is plenty good enough for my purposes.William Zayonce

    I built that engine.
    It loses 4-6% per wagered dollar for me.
  • What should an odds line be?
    Wait...
    Are you speaking of their bet size relative to:
    A. Total Pool size (i.e. they're eating their own profit)
    or
    B. Their total bankroll (i.e. optimum bet theory)

    Of course they have A covered.
    That is basic tote math.
  • What should an odds line be?
    "Liability" is the risk factor for failure.William Zayonce

    Sorry, that does match anything I am aware of.

    Can you lay that out for me?
  • What should an odds line be?
    Thanks for your time Dave . After crunching, and understanding your numbers you've given me my answer. Clearly the track rebate is critical when choosing which one to play. Picking a high rebate track will mean bucking huge off swings by the 56.7% of whale generated "late" money. While at SA they only influence the odds to the tune of 22.2% of the "late" money.William Zayonce

    Methinks you are right but for the wrong reason.

    Yes, you are right but the fact that you think the smaller swings are going to allow you to use the old make-a-line-and-bet-into-it approach.

    @RanchWest is right about that approach being dead.
    It's as dead as a doornail.

    So, what do you do?
    Ranch and I have had some conversations and I think he's close.

    It's found in anti-handicapping.
    Loosely speaking, it's found in predicting who the whales are and aren't going to bet.
  • What should an odds line be?
    They don't view their liability as the other money in the pool. Their liability is something weird happening.RanchWest

    I don't understand that.
  • What should an odds line be?
    I'm wondering how they calculate their bet sizing when they don't know the final pool totals . I would have thought that they'd have a "liability threshold" , a % of the total pool, beyond which they would be at severe risk. Perhaps my assumption that their bet sizes were predicated upon the dollar amounts already in the pools.William Zayonce

    Here's what they have:
    • Excellent global How-They-Bet models
    • An almost 2-decade history of tote data.

    My newest release of HSH includes a much-improved How-They-Bet engine, that will make a huge difference for HSH users if they choose to use it.

    What we don't have is that 2nd part: a tote model.

    What the whales DON'T HAVE is a good handle on how the OTHER WHALES are going to bet.

    I have that.
  • What should an odds line be?


    Maybe I misunderstood your question.

    But the point is that the whales bet ZERO money early enough for it to be viewed on the toteboard while you could still make a bet.
    ___________________
    Without explaining the math - which is a bit rigorous - here are a few key points.

    The higher the rebate, the higher the percentage of whale money at the track.
    About 34% of total win pool at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    About 10% of total win pool at tracks like SA, CD, etc.

    The higher the rebate, the greater the percent of pool that shows up after the gate opens.
    About 60% of total win pool at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    About 45% of total win pool at tracks like SA, CD, etc.

    Using that math, for every $100 wagered "late"
    $57 will be whale money at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    (34 / 60 = 56.7%)
    $22 will be whale money at tracks like SA, CD, etc.
    (10 / 45 = 22.2%)

    CONCLUSIONS
    The pools at high rebate tracks have 2.6x the percentage of whale money LATE!
    ($57 / $22 = 2.59)
    Since that money is (effectively) in the hands of JUST FIVE BETTORS, the pool swings will be FAR MORE VOLATILE at higher rebate tracks.
    (Meaning: When they agree, you can easily see 4/1 become 4/5.)

    Hope this helps.
  • What should an odds line be?
    What percentage of that final wagering amount do you think might be "whale "money and how much is due to late betting from online ADWs & OTBs ?William Zayonce

    None of it.

    All the whale money shows up AFTER the gate is open.

    Just like yours and mine.