• Dave Schwartz
    414
    Course: How to Be Competitive in the Age of the Whales
    Chapter-00_My_First_Frame-100x.png
    9. The 5 Columns in Action (58:58)
    This is a long, race-by-race workout of the 5 Column approach.
    Try to remember that this is about YOUR 5 COLUMNS.
    If you reach the point when you're getting, and get tired of watching, just make sure that you watch the Ind03 race (52 minute mark).
  • Steven
    114
    May I ask what goes into computing stretch run (SR) and best horse (BH)?
  • Dave Schwartz
    414
    May I ask what goes into computing stretch run (SR) and best horse (BH)?Steven

    First, a little history.
    My AI has two primary AI designs.

    GA 47: The biggest is an engine that (essentially) created 200 "systems" and uses the "shape of the race" (as defined by the AI) to decide which system to use in each race. BTW, there are actually 2 different types - one for previous starters and one for FTS and foreign shippers.

    Thus, there are actually 200 x 200 systems - resulting in 40,000 combinations.
    ("GA47" is a reference to this engine being my 47th Genetic Algorithm.)
    ________________________________
    GA 37: This was a code-only system that I first developed about 15 years ago.
    The purpose of GA37 was that it was MY PERSONAL TOOL for building power HANDICAPPING OBJECTS for HSH.
    ________________________________
    Now, to your question...
    I've continued developing GA37 to the point where it now does an excellent job of "integrating my specific goals directly into a fitness function." In other words, with relatively simple code, I can get "Core AI" to generate DIRECTED OPTIMIZATION towards a WELL-DEFINED SUBSET of data.

    Specifically, I "told it" to bias all results in favor of horses that did not figure to be low odds.

    HSH has, at it's core, about 3,500 factors, of which perhaps 500 have even an outside shot and having any real impact in the end result. (As the whales get better - i.e. the pools become more efficient - the core factors slip in value and the outliers' importance increases.

    The end result was to generate 30 weighted factors for each column. These factor sets change depending upon the "AI's perceived shape of race.

    Then, those factors are used at race time in a Monte Carlo Simulation.
    ________________________________
    So, the final answer to your question...
    May I ask what goes into computing stretch run (SR) and best horse (BH)?...

    is, "I don't actually know."
  • Steven
    114
    LOL‼️ I was really expecting something like well, it is just too high a factor rating to be able to explain it. I don’t know is in the same neighborhood.

    Thanks for taking the time to explain all this.
bold
italic
underline
strike
code
quote
ulist
image
url
mention
reveal
youtube
tweet
Add a Comment

Please register to see more

Forum Members always see the latest updates and news first. Sign up today.