Do you keep the notes?

WOW!

Won 4/1, $10.00
ytd, B 8 W 26.20, profit 18.20 — RanchWest

Nice play!
You've been performing consistently well.

Any chance of taking you on a percentage basis? :)

Good fortune to you with this.

Thanks Dave, but I think the term "excellent" is overly generous. — William Zayonce

Winning is a fragile state.
Anyone who can win consistently - and your picks over time have shown that you do that - is to be respected.

Even being close to breaking even is an indicator of (at least potential) greatness.

I salute you.

You really are excellent.

Got an ETA on that, Dave? — RanchWest

I've got a TARGET DATE but it keeps moving back.
The website is finished, as is the store. But no content yet.

Also need to hook the store to the new software to handle subscriptions and provisioning (of software on start up).

The stumbling block is finishing the software's output. Under the hood is 90% finished, but the output is barely started. The good news is that the output is the easiest part.

Meanwhile, in the background, the AI engine is doing its thing - developing artificial AGENTS who handicap and give opinions.

Really some cool stuff coming out of this WHEN I get it together.

Until then, it's all just vaporware and speculation.

There is a 200 & 300.
We lost a streaming site a while back.

They will be up when the new website & store go up.

I suppose there are another hundred hours or so.

What's your specific interest?

Update on this entire project.
The AI appears to be training so well that the new factors may well have to wait until a later version.

Shocked at how good this looks.

Pushing to make my self-imposed deadline.
Getting closer.

I'm familiar with the thread.

Thank you.

I'm not ready to make screenshots of the new software yet.

Still working on creating the factors.

We'll dump some of the old ones - maybe 2,000 or so - and add about 1,000 back.

Some of them are mind blowers.
Like one I got from AUS - "Ran like a favorite" (or 2nd choice, 3rd choice, etc).

Also, classing the races by mix of horses rather than a rigid class system.

Thus, a $16k claiming race that is loaded with horses who should be able to run much faster, will show as such. Hint: Using high-level factors to make those class distinction. ("High level" means PSR, BRIS Prime Power, etc.)

Oh, and there are now three factors that are similar to BRIS Prime Power. TWELVE if you use the HSH download!

The list goes on and on.

How about the HSH Getting Started video manual?

Hi Dave, decided to join your Horsestreet blog site and I was just perusing. One of the questions I wanted to ask in terms of the HDW website and it's data is what Past Performance Data do you use. Is it Bris, Equibase, Drf? Also, one of your factors, or can or is this built-in, is horses in cycles tend to show either losing speed on the turn or from 2nd Call to the stretch as negative length loss. I tend to look for horses that have gone 1-2 races whereby this happens particularly if they are chasing and not close to the lead. I have had sucess with these types or will wait to they show improvement in their running. — Charles Lucas

1. Only HDW data.
Cost is $142 per month for all tracks with results.

2. Yes, there are several factors that refer to that.
Things like positions/length lost between calls.

Those are shown in several formats.
Last race
Per race in a graph
Time-decayed
Averages
_______________
Truth: Our suggested approach to speed already recognizes that the 2nd call (i.e. EP) is not as important as it is made out to be.

Of the 52% of all winners that are within 1 length at the 2nd call, 44% of those were already on the lead at the 1st call.

IOW, the 2nd call challengers only account for 8% of all winners and their prices are low.
________
"Do you know what you call a horse who makes a big move on the turn?"
The odds-on favorite.
________

WOW!
Congratulations, @Conley!

Nice article.

TVG and Del Mar this year. — Tom

Sad, isn't it?

Have a chowder for me.

LOL
You're one of us - therefore, we root for your success.
You can do some advertising.

Be reasonable, of course.

Advertising is not allowed.
But you're one of us.

&

Tony is correct.
The challenge is that a $16k claiming race may really be anything from a $10 to a $25k race. Usually plus/minus 2 levels.

That's why I recommend using a strength of race rating instead of par.

My new software is really getting closer now.
It will blow your mind with stuff just like what you're talking about.

I guarantee that you've seen nothing even approaching it before.

Stay tuned.

Do you mean "Have ever run to today's par?"

I like this idea.

I am aware of no such tool, but it could be accomplished with some code in my future software - target for release is a few weeks away.