• What should an odds line be?
    Finding which contenders will likely take the most action is plenty good enough for my purposes.William Zayonce

    I built that engine.
    It loses 4-6% per wagered dollar for me.
  • What should an odds line be?
    Are you speaking of their bet size relative to:
    A. Total Pool size (i.e. they're eating their own profit)
    B. Their total bankroll (i.e. optimum bet theory)

    Of course they have A covered.
    That is basic tote math.
  • What should an odds line be?
    "Liability" is the risk factor for failure.William Zayonce

    Sorry, that does match anything I am aware of.

    Can you lay that out for me?
  • What should an odds line be?
    Thanks for your time Dave . After crunching, and understanding your numbers you've given me my answer. Clearly the track rebate is critical when choosing which one to play. Picking a high rebate track will mean bucking huge off swings by the 56.7% of whale generated "late" money. While at SA they only influence the odds to the tune of 22.2% of the "late" money.William Zayonce

    Methinks you are right but for the wrong reason.

    Yes, you are right but the fact that you think the smaller swings are going to allow you to use the old make-a-line-and-bet-into-it approach.

    @RanchWest is right about that approach being dead.
    It's as dead as a doornail.

    So, what do you do?
    Ranch and I have had some conversations and I think he's close.

    It's found in anti-handicapping.
    Loosely speaking, it's found in predicting who the whales are and aren't going to bet.
  • What should an odds line be?
    They don't view their liability as the other money in the pool. Their liability is something weird happening.RanchWest

    I don't understand that.
  • What should an odds line be?
    I'm wondering how they calculate their bet sizing when they don't know the final pool totals . I would have thought that they'd have a "liability threshold" , a % of the total pool, beyond which they would be at severe risk. Perhaps my assumption that their bet sizes were predicated upon the dollar amounts already in the pools.William Zayonce

    Here's what they have:
    • Excellent global How-They-Bet models
    • An almost 2-decade history of tote data.

    My newest release of HSH includes a much-improved How-They-Bet engine, that will make a huge difference for HSH users if they choose to use it.

    What we don't have is that 2nd part: a tote model.

    What the whales DON'T HAVE is a good handle on how the OTHER WHALES are going to bet.

    I have that.
  • What should an odds line be?

    Maybe I misunderstood your question.

    But the point is that the whales bet ZERO money early enough for it to be viewed on the toteboard while you could still make a bet.
    Without explaining the math - which is a bit rigorous - here are a few key points.

    The higher the rebate, the higher the percentage of whale money at the track.
    About 34% of total win pool at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    About 10% of total win pool at tracks like SA, CD, etc.

    The higher the rebate, the greater the percent of pool that shows up after the gate opens.
    About 60% of total win pool at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    About 45% of total win pool at tracks like SA, CD, etc.

    Using that math, for every $100 wagered "late"
    $57 will be whale money at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    (34 / 60 = 56.7%)
    $22 will be whale money at tracks like MNR, CT, DED, etc.
    (10 / 45 = 22.2%)

    The pools at high rebate tracks have 2.6x the percentage of whale money LATE!
    ($57 / $22 = 2.59)
    Since that money is (effectively) in the hands of JUST FIVE BETTORS, the pool swings will be FAR MORE VOLATILE at higher rebate tracks.
    (Meaning: When they agree, you can easily see 4/1 become 4/5.)

    Hope this helps.
  • What should an odds line be?
    What percentage of that final wagering amount do you think might be "whale "money and how much is due to late betting from online ADWs & OTBs ?William Zayonce

    None of it.

    All the whale money shows up AFTER the gate is open.

    Just like yours and mine.
  • What should an odds line be?

    I agree with what you've written.

    Value today is a challenge, that's for sure.

    Most people confuse Price with Value anyway.
  • Have you ever?
    My Dog, I hope I'm not getting dyslexia!Tom

  • Have you ever?
    What is the address for the store?Tom
  • Have you ever?
    The All Button

    A viable idea!

    This caused me to add a handful of columns to the AI engine in the new software: the All Button.
  • HSH 9.1 (Pre-Release Announcement)
    It was released weeks ago.
  • Have you ever?
    ThoroBrain is coming back in this new software.

    You and I will be discussing that on Thursday.
  • Odds movement calculation help
    I think what you're looking for are the booking percentages.

    Pct = 100 / (odds + 1)

    3/1 = 100 / (3 + 1 ) = 25%
    2/1 = 100 / (2 + 1 ) = 33%
    3/2 = 100 / (1.5 +1)= 40%

    So, a horse who was bet down from 3/1 to 3/2 would see an increase in percent of pool of 15% (i.e. 40 - 25 = 15).

    Hope this helps.
  • Improve and Decline Rediscovered

    Prices could be high.

    And nobody off a layoff?
  • Improve and Decline Rediscovered
    One thing I am seeing so far is a good way to just say a race is not worth the rest of the work and move on.Tom

    How do you arrive at that?

    Please tell me it's not about all questionable horses, because those are the BEST races to play.
  • Improve and Decline Rediscovered

    A trip down memory lane.

    Form Cycle has its own page in HSH. It's in the Pace Module.

    Dick Schmidt used to refer to that page as Those Sheet-Like-Things.

    The concept still works much as it did back over a decade ago, but the prices have changed drastically.

    Basically, today it points to 2 different kinds of horses:
    • In form at 5/2 or below
    • In form at long odds but severely out-classed.

    It is pretty rare to see an out of form horse bet down into the low odds ranges.

    Probably the best use is to confirm longshots that you liked a little anyway.
  • Win Parlays vs Pick N

    The first disadvantage is the takeout is higher when you parlay.
    Sure, the takeout is lower in the win pool, but if you're betting a 3-horse parlay instead of a P3, you get taxed THREE TIMES instead of once.

    More importantly (to me), as @William Zayonce said, the inability to change your bet or even pass, is more important.
  • HSH Error message: Date Violation
    #HSH #Corrupt Installation

    First, the bad news.
    As per our phone conversation a few minutes ago, let me begin by saying that you are probably hosed.

    This is because almost every mechanical restoration approach will completely destroy your application because, as thou said above, it MIXES old files that it could restore with the newer files.

    Because database files are relational -- meaning they work together -- a partial restoration causes complete destruction of the system.

    In your case, this was made worse by the fact that it restored a program version that was from 3 years ago, despite the fact that your last backup was in June.

    BTW, if that backup is usable, you should be able to simply change to that drive, locate the HSH folder, and run from there. My guess is that you won't be able to because it is not a true, full copy of the folder.

    Hope I am wrong.

    Now the Good News.
    What you need is simply...
    • a brand new installation.
    • replacement of your data.

    This is an easy fix.
    • You don't send us a USB.
    • We assemble what you need, obviously with the newest version and your missing data.
    • Then we send you a USB.
    With a little more effort...
    • We put it in your Dropbox.
    • Then I meet with you and manually install it
    (This is a little more effort because your DropBox probably does not have enough storage for all the data at one time.)