Scientific Handicapping is the title.

thanks for the response Dave. I debug and nothing happens — Chuck

A few things you should understand (if you don't)
1. In order for someone to help you, they have to know the scripting language you are using or be willing to devote time to learning it.

2. If someone does know that language, then they still need the willingness to invest the time to solve YOUR problem.

Respectfully, both of those are big asks.

And the more code there is the bigger the ask.

How are YOUR skills in this language?

WOW!

Welcome to the world of coding where code that doesn't work can only be fixed by someone who knows how to debug that code.

It would appear that would be neither of us.

of course

Video is up.

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@ponyplayer,@Neal Freedman,@Tony Kofalt,@Dave R,@Jim Pommier,@Gillycapper,@PickMaster

I tend to play quite a lot of longer priced horses and like to employ the exacta as a place bet strategy. I will generally wheel these horses front and back with the two betting favorites in the race in the exacta. So being able to potentially eliminate some of these low priced horses from the bottom of the exacta would be advantageous. — Dave Salvini

That's a good strategy, without true BALO information.

BALOs lose about half their wins, but run 2nd an inordinate number of times.

They should definitely be KEYED underneath.

,
For clarity, you CANNOT do this with LIVE ODDS.

It must be accomplished completely without the tote!

And the Morning Line will not be strong enough to accomplish this.

This is why the AI Line is such a huge step forward - because it EXAGGERATES the odds based upon the FACTORS that have been historically predictive of how the public bets.

You, as a former HSH user, know of the object known as the Artificial Morning Line (aML).

As good as that is at pointing to the ultimate favorites, it simply cannot predict HOW STRONG these horses LOOK!
_________________
BTW, many BALOs actually go UP in odds.
While people would see this as a GOOD thing, it's not.

That's simply the whales and smarter players NOT BETTING a horse who looks obvious.

They simply do not win at a price.

There is an exception - BALOs that are above (say) 8/1 or so in the gate can be bet. They will come up a handful of times each month and the $Net on such horses is probably around $6 or so.

Actually caught one a couple of years ago that paid $18, but these days I rarely even look at the tote board because it is such a distraction.

I just have zero interest in the place or show pools.

For that matter, when there is a bonafide projected Low Odds horse - they are either BALOs, meaning BAD BETS, or they are horses to NOT be bet!!!

Yes, I understand what I just said: you either don’t bet them because they are BAD BETS or you don’t bet them because they prevent you from making money.

The difference between the two is that with a BALO you could throw darts in the race and break even, while in the other races the OPTIMAL play would be to just let them beat you.

They rarely pay more than $4.60 and the average price is about $3.95.

IOW, having such a horse in the race is an indication of healthy payoffs on EVERYONE else!

Today’s video is in the link above this post.

I look forward to hearing more of this tomorrow.

No I meant do you split it by meet, or the calendar year — Chuck

Ah...
I split it by whatever makes the planet line up.

For example, some tracks run so few turf races that I have to build a THREE-YEAR PAR!

If the class levels are looking good, then I can make a par using almost everything. That is, Maidens, Allowance, Claiming - only fast tracks - and even mix males and females because they should be adjusted properly.

The software is very sophisticated - not pretty but it helps with the grunt work.

It's done whenever I need to do it.

It's 70% art and 30% science.

Some tracks take 10 minutes and some take an hour.

The AQU09 race on Sunday was EXACTLY the same situation.

1. The race is a chaos 5.
Chaos 5s are best played without handicapping.

2. Fire the Neal and sort.
That puts the winner as the 2nd best GOOD BET in the race - an automatic bet.

In this example, I went down 5 horses - the same as before - using what the system recommeded.

It is ALWAYS the need to handicap the winner that takes us off the big payoffs, DESPITE THE INSTRUCTIONS AGAINST IT.

FG Race10
1. The race is a chaos 5.
Chaos 5s are best played without handicapping.

2. Fire the Neal and sort.
That puts the winner as the 2nd best GOOD BET in the race - an automatic bet.

In this example, I went down 6 horses - one horse beyond the "GOOD BETS."




Special Note: What prevents us from hitting races like this one is the insistence on handicapping the winner instead of simply throwing the appropriate number of longshots up as bets.

Pars are done.
Going to the printer in about an hour.

Next are the exports and tomorrow DET & HSH par upgrades.

Is that the $100 winner that the guys in the Saturday group were talking about?

If so, I think that was a big-time chaos race.

Horses like that are rarely handicappable - but we do catch them once in a while.

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An udderly hilarious featherweight match. — Red Knave

Nicely played.

I'd like to suggest that instead of trying to figure out all of them, you figure out the most common one first.

By far that would be L1s which seem to comprise about 70% of all races.

L2s are next with about 20%.
L0s have about 8%.

When you look at D1s - remember they are a subset of L1s.
D2s are a subset of L2s.

I don't have numbers for the D's.

Definitions:
L1s are races with only 1 horse under 2/1 (using AI Line).
L2s are races with 2 horses under 2/1 (using AI Line).
L3s are races with 3 horses under 2/1 (using AI Line).
Note: These are very rare as they all have to be between 1.90 and 1.99 to 1.
Maybe 1%?


(Brian is working on some new cutting edge stuff that relates to the competitive level of the race using the B-W-Sq.)

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