Comments

  • Researching negatives
    Respectfully, single race examples have only slightly better than zero value.

    The answer must be verified with much larger samples.

    Without a few hundred negative picks made either completely rule-based or before hand, it's all anecdotal.

    That's why I react so negatively when someone speaks of building models in notebooks: in order to do research, one must look across dozens of pages in such a notebook.
  • Researching negatives
    I am doing it the old fashioned way in a notebookConley

    OMG!!!!
  • Researching negatives
    Ranch right now I am keeping track of track biases and specifically looking at poor/bad or "negative" biases that I can see

    I am doing almost 99% of the tracks on North America right now and have data starting from the start of this month if anyone wanted a quick sneak peek of what I do (which is probably nobody)
    Conley

    Are you doing this in a spreadsheet?
  • Researching negatives
    I also flag horses with troubled trips. I figure that a horse should also be forgiven for the occasional troubled trip, but when it keeps happening, maybe it isn't a coincidence.RanchWest

    Please tell me about HOW you do that.

    I'm designing a note-taking & searching process in The Studio, and, not being a note taker myself, I'm a little lost.
  • Researching negatives
    I am currently working on tracking jockey troubled trips. I know that a troubled trip can happen to any jockey at any time. But I am thinking that jockeys that have a lot of troubled trips may not be very good wagers. What do you think?RanchWest

    How are you doing that?
    Comments?
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    I'm trying to figure out how to share this photo. I'll see what I can come up with because the "Image" and "Upload Files" ways aren't working at the moment. User error, most likely.Lawrence

    Before I tell you how please I am to see you here - just pretend I didn't say that - let me tell you the easiest way to upload a file. OH! You figured it out!

    I LOVE what you are doing.

    Let me know how I can help.

    BTW, I will predict that what you find from your spreadsheet work will work but not the way you think.

    I'll guess that you will find that the obvious horses are what have been dubbed BOLOs by the locals. Can't recall at the moment whether it was @RanchWest, @Biniak, or @Steven, but it was definitely one of them

    A BOLO is a BET AGAINST LOW ODDS horse.

    Congratulations on some nice work.

    #BOLO
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    I'm so confused. Fenwick bet down to 7/1???Dustin Korth

    Fenwick finished last, 40 1/2 lengths behind.RanchWest

    Probably just got a bad trip :lol:Dustin Korth

    Hey that was my 10k bet you're making fun of.Biniak

    My condolences. The memorial service will be on Tuesday.RanchWest

    My next line is I was the jockey. So don't say "bad ride", it was just nerves.Biniak

    You guys are hilarious.
    :rofl:
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Maybe we're getting lifetime by scraping PPs rather than data files. Not sure but I'll find out.Dustin Korth

    Thank you.
    It's a feature I've recently added to the new software - not lifetime, but adds to a history file. Probably not in the 1st release.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    My data comes from Brisnet but I'm pretty sure DRF and Equibase also have lifetime.Dustin Korth

    Which file comes with lifetime PPs at BRIS?
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Tell me more if you guys have the time.

    What about if you don't have CAREER and just have last 10?
  • Picking Losers is the Best Whale Killer


    First line in my post.
    (This is a re-release of a blog post from PaceMakesTheRace.com.)Dave Schwartz

    The concepts are still solid.

    BTW, I spent some time researching my current approach and think I have found a way to improve it.

    Needs more races.
  • Completely Different Styles!
    One of the things I like to do is watch handicapping videos. One thing I’ve noticed is that Dave Schwartz and Michael Pizzolla have two totally different styles. Michael says if a race doesn’t have value he doesn’t play it. Dave says he plays them all! no race is unplayable! Here's Pizzolla's Preakness rant. I always give him credit for these because he does them before the race. Who's style would you say your playing style is more like?Mark

    Key point is that all races have a way to play them.

    They can be quantified as:
    1. Bet Against 1.21
    Bet Against a horse projected to be less than 1.22:1
    This race is considered chaotic and there will be no handicapping.
    (Can't have a Chaos Race with less than 7 horses.)

    2. Bet Against Low Odds (BALO)
    Bet Against a horse projected to be less than 3/1
    This race will be a conventional Contender Selection race, after the BALO horse(s) have been removed.

    3. Single 1.21
    Race with a 1.21 horse who deserves to be singled.

    BTW, I used to do quite a few Live Play Sessions but only for HSH users.
    When I release Studio I'll go back to doing them.
  • To Own Your Handicapping Day...


    The "#BALO" is a hashtag which makes it searchable.

    "BALO" means "Bet Against Low Odds."

    How do we find the BA LO horse?RanchWest
  • To Own Your Handicapping Day...
    The video provided 2 solid ways.
  • To Own Your Handicapping Day...


    BALO - I like it!

    [edit]
    Added as a hashtag in the original post.
  • Is there anything New?
    If I could magically tell you the winner of a single race with 100% sureness and give you $100, how do you bet it?Dustin Korth

    Great point. :100:

    I ask this question a little differently: "What is the best way to EXPLOIT what I believe to be true about this race?"

    This is what I refer to as "Leverage Points."

    #LeveragePoints #LevPts
  • CODERS: How to write your own handicapping scripting language?
    I did the same thing with you that I did with everyone else: I changed the setting and forgot that I have to scroll way down the page and hit save.

    Fixed now.
    Sorry.
  • Benter speech
    The whale's rake is much smaller. The track's take is way too much!Biniak

    But combined... it's even worse.