Comments

  • Artificial Intelligence: Questions they should answer
    Really great questions.
    ________________
    I did a little reading on "Agents" in AI". "Each of the 8 Agents has their own approach to the game". Is each approach somewhat predetermined by the AI programming?Jim Pommier

    The goal of the AI engine is to develop a system that allows each agent to become their own person, so to speak.

    Imagine you're going to teach...
    ... a brand new horse player how to handicap. What do you teach him?
    • You teach what you know and believe.
    • This becomes his own personal starting point.
    • He will begin with the factors you gave and proceed from there.
    While he can - and most certainly will - eventually change how he handicaps, his roots will always be in his beginnings.

    Will one Agent look at say Pace Shape while another looks at FTS's? Then each one builds from their experience in their particular approach? One agent may like horse #1, while another may like horses #2 and #3?

    This is a very simplistic way to explain exactly how it works.

    ____________________
    For example-- "Is there a vulnerable favorite in this race? Which horses' figure to improve or digress? Will only some Agents review and respond to the question, while other Agents do not based on their AI approach to handicapping? Thanks.

    Again, precisely right.

    There is one significant difference between HUMAN handicappers and AI AGENTS:
    While humans are dedicated to improvement, there is a natural tendency to want to continue doing what they are doing now.

    To some degree, we just naturally defend our current approach and resist changing it beyond minor improvements.

    Agents are not encumbered by such complications.

    HOWEVER, the will always be trapped (to some degree) relatively near their starting points; their POINT OF ORIGIN.

    ____________________
    I've designed the 8 agents with HANDICAPPING PERSONALITIES that will have VERY GOOD HIGH contender hit rates.

    There is one such agent whose approach will likely have the very highest contender hit rate. However, he will have a difficult time hitting price horses.

    Each agent's tendency will be to stay somewhat close to his roots in contender selection, but his (or her) actual handicapping is completely free form in the sense that they have ALMOST ALL of the 3,000+ factors available to them.
  • Artificial Intelligence: Questions they should answer
    Knowing that there's a vulnerable favorite, I can then pass the race or look at other entriesJim Pommier
    Yes, this is valuable information.

    Also, does the AI take into consideration the trainer/jockey win and ITM percentage, class rating, earnings per start and the actual horse's win and ITM percentage?Jim Pommier

    It considers just about EVERYTHING.

    Of course, it doesn't actually USE everything in every race.

    BTW, there isn't actually ONE AI.

    They are called AGENTS and there are 8 of them.

    Each has their own approach to the game. You can select as many as 5 to be active in any given race.
  • Saratoga 2023
    Yes, @RanchWest - take care.
  • Need some help with NOTE TAKING
    That's a big step towards understanding what people want and could use.
    Thank you.

    I'm trying to design something that allows for almost free-form notes.

    I think that the key is to have them readily available - so you don't have to go looking.
  • Need some help with NOTE TAKING
    Do you keep the notes?
  • Saratoga 2023
    Won 4/1, $10.00
    ytd, B 8 W 26.20, profit 18.20
    RanchWest

    Nice play!
    You've been performing consistently well.

    Any chance of taking you on a percentage basis? :)
  • Saratoga 2023
    Thanks Dave, but I think the term "excellent" is overly generous.William Zayonce

    Winning is a fragile state.
    Anyone who can win consistently - and your picks over time have shown that you do that - is to be respected.

    Even being close to breaking even is an indicator of (at least potential) greatness.

    I salute you.
  • Saratoga 2023

    You really are excellent.
  • Just a question and you can or not out of curiosity Dave
    Got an ETA on that, Dave?RanchWest

    I've got a TARGET DATE but it keeps moving back.
    The website is finished, as is the store. But no content yet.

    Also need to hook the store to the new software to handle subscriptions and provisioning (of software on start up).

    The stumbling block is finishing the software's output. Under the hood is 90% finished, but the output is barely started. The good news is that the output is the easiest part.

    Meanwhile, in the background, the AI engine is doing its thing - developing artificial AGENTS who handicap and give opinions.

    Really some cool stuff coming out of this WHEN I get it together.

    Until then, it's all just vaporware and speculation.
  • Just a question and you can or not out of curiosity Dave
    There is a 200 & 300.
    We lost a streaming site a while back.

    They will be up when the new website & store go up.
  • Just a question and you can or not out of curiosity Dave


    I suppose there are another hundred hours or so.

    What's your specific interest?
  • Just a question and you can or not out of curiosity Dave


    Update on this entire project.
    The AI appears to be training so well that the new factors may well have to wait until a later version.

    Shocked at how good this looks.

    Pushing to make my self-imposed deadline.
    Getting closer.
  • Saratoga 2023
    I'm familiar with the thread.

    Thank you.
  • Just a question and you can or not out of curiosity Dave
    I'm not ready to make screenshots of the new software yet.

    Still working on creating the factors.

    We'll dump some of the old ones - maybe 2,000 or so - and add about 1,000 back.

    Some of them are mind blowers.
    Like one I got from AUS - "Ran like a favorite" (or 2nd choice, 3rd choice, etc).

    Also, classing the races by mix of horses rather than a rigid class system.

    Thus, a $16k claiming race that is loaded with horses who should be able to run much faster, will show as such. Hint: Using high-level factors to make those class distinction. ("High level" means PSR, BRIS Prime Power, etc.)

    Oh, and there are now three factors that are similar to BRIS Prime Power. TWELVE if you use the HSH download!

    The list goes on and on.
  • PP's Question
    Hi Dave, decided to join your Horsestreet blog site and I was just perusing. One of the questions I wanted to ask in terms of the HDW website and it's data is what Past Performance Data do you use. Is it Bris, Equibase, Drf? Also, one of your factors, or can or is this built-in, is horses in cycles tend to show either losing speed on the turn or from 2nd Call to the stretch as negative length loss. I tend to look for horses that have gone 1-2 races whereby this happens particularly if they are chasing and not close to the lead. I have had sucess with these types or will wait to they show improvement in their running.Charles Lucas

    1. Only HDW data.
    Cost is $142 per month for all tracks with results.

    2. Yes, there are several factors that refer to that.
    Things like positions/length lost between calls.

    Those are shown in several formats.
    Last race
    Per race in a graph
    Time-decayed
    Averages
    _______________
    Truth: Our suggested approach to speed already recognizes that the 2nd call (i.e. EP) is not as important as it is made out to be.

    Of the 52% of all winners that are within 1 length at the 2nd call, 44% of those were already on the lead at the 1st call.

    IOW, the 2nd call challengers only account for 8% of all winners and their prices are low.
    ________
    "Do you know what you call a horse who makes a big move on the turn?"
    The odds-on favorite.

    ________
  • Conley-- Congratulations!!
    WOW!
    Congratulations, @Conley!

    Nice article.
  • Saratoga 2023
    TVG and Del Mar this year.Tom

    Sad, isn't it?

    Have a chowder for me.