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Course: How to Be Competitive in the Age of the Whales
  • Dave Schwartz
    415
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    0. Introduction (16:43)
    What has Really made the game so difficult?
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    1. The Toteboard (10:17)
    It's actually worse than you probably think.
    But, from understanding comes answers.
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    2. Early Speed Points (5:20)
    Early Speed Points work differently than we've always thought.
    (And it greatly benefits price horses.)
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    3. Rank Bias Explained (18:51)
    You will look at rankings differently after this.
    (Especially on price horses.)
    (In a good way.)
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    4. Rank Bias and Other Factors (6:31)
    The impact on Speed Ratings and more Early Speed.
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    5. Morning Line as a Handicapping Factor (3:19)
    I know. Sounds laughable.
    But wait until you see the impact.
    (Spend the 3+ minutes.)
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    6. Morning Line & the Toteboard (6:49)
    The relationship between Morning Line and the Toteboard is not what we thought it was.
    This one will shock you.
    (Again, worth the 6+ minutes.)
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    7. Intro to Simpler Handicapping (8:08)
    What if handicapping could be simple again, like it was in the 1980s?
    (It also produces better results than you are probably getting today.)
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    8. Intro to the 5-Column Approach (10:59)
    Explains the concept of the 5 Columns.
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    9. The 5 Columns in Action (58:58)
    This is a long, race-by-race workout of the 5 Column approach.
    Try to remember that this is about YOUR 5 COLUMNS.
    If you reach the point when you're getting, and get tired of watching, just make sure that you watch the Ind03 race (52 minute mark).
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    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    415
    .
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    Boy does this come in handy in this day and age of CAWs
    Chuck Jones Options
  • BobbyB
    0
    In the Rank Bias videos are you saying that the factors only matter with 1st and 2nd favorites?

    If that's true how do you handicap?
    BobbyB Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    ↪BobbyB
    Have you watched the rest of the videos? That's where the juicy stuff is. It needs to be watched several times actually, it's full of meaty stuff
    Chuck Jones Options
  • BobbyB
    0
    ↪BobbyB Have you watched the rest of the videos? That's where the juicy stuff is. It needs to be watched several times actually, it's full of meaty stuff — Chuck Jones

    Yes, I watched them all. What I don't understand is that if the factors we've all been using for years only matter for low odds horses what do we handicap with?

    Did I miss that in the video?
    BobbyB Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    415
    Yes, I watched them all. What I don't understand is that if the factors we've all been using for years only matter for low odds horses what do we handicap with?

    Did I miss that in the video?     — BobbyB

    That's a really great question.
    The answer lies in what we call HANDICAPPING OBJECTS.

    It isn't that the factor ranks don't matter at all, they just don't matter at all. They still do.

    They just don't matter as much as we think they do.

    The answer is MORE FACTORS generated together to produce a NEW FACTOR that CAN separate the other horses.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    As the Amwager players know, they have come out with and ELO score for about everything. Harness, TBred, Aussie, you name it. I remember when they first came out, they were saying this is kind of how the CAWs work, with these ELO scores. Any thoughts on this? I haven't paid much attention to them, but maybe I should, I have no idea.....
    Chuck Jones Options
  • Jim Pommier
    134
    ↪Chuck Jones
    I don't use AmWager. Curious how their ELO scores compare to PSR, cPwr, cRtg or BRIS Prime Power? Specifically ranking the horses in a race. For example, in a 6 horse field, do the horses rank 1 through 6 the same using AW ELO and PSR? Maybe check about 10 races to see any differences and how it performs.
    Jim Pommier Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    Supposedly it's a one number includes everything rating, as opposed to just a pure form rating. Jockey, Trainer, etc all included, so it's more than just a form rating (like Australia) https://www.amwager.com/elo/
    Chuck Jones Options
  • Jim Pommier
    134
    ↪Chuck Jones
    Other ratings like PSR also include other factors like statistical data, pace, running style, jockey, etc. It's not just a form rating. Since both are proprietary, we don't know the exact factors or how they're weighted. Higher is better. Guessing the ELO would work well for selecting contenders.
    Jim Pommier Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    The only reason I'm even curious is Amwager is very professional shop, lot of the big gun rebate players live there, so I doubt they would put out junk. But I've been fooled a million times before....so, ya know
    Chuck Jones Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    415
    The only reason I'm even curious is Amwager is very professional shop, lot of the big gun rebate players live there, so I doubt they would put out junk. But I've been fooled a million times before....so, ya know — Chuck Jones

    I don't think
    ↪Jim Pommier
    was saying they are junk.

    They're just ratings. And everybody at amWager has them.

    Guessing the ELO would work well for selecting contenders. — Jim Pommier
    Actually, it would logically push you to shorter priced horses.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    no, I wondered if they were junk, it was nothing Jim said, lol.
    Chuck Jones Options
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