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Jim Pommier
132Completed a little more modeling. I used Brian's spreadsheet, but I tailored it towards what I wanted. So it's a little different.
L-0: No low odds horses. 11 of 27 winners were BH Rank 1. 9 of the 11 keyed by LP and SR. 6 of those also had Spd. Average win payouts in the L-0's was about $13.60.
L-1: 1 horse <2.91-1. This is the largest category. BH Ranks 1 and 2 were winning at 30.8%. Again, LP, SR and Spd. Also, E was not far behind (also with EP). I was able to adjudicate 24 of the L1 horses. Only 3 won. Average win payouts in the L-1's was about $11.40.
L-2: 2 horses <2.91-1. BH Ranks 1 and 2 won 52% of the time. Was able to adjudicate one of the low odds horses in 18 races-- the other low odds horse won 10 times. Was only able to adjudicate both low odds horses in 2 races-- a high odds horse won both of those races. Average win payouts in the L-2's was about $11.00.
"tTrk" - Trainer at the Track works fairly well as an additional column.
If any questions, please let me know. -
Gillycapper
39Hi Jim,
I have used tTrk and found it to be very useful as an additional column. starting to go through races of about 20 as the standard. BH is a very powerful factor and combined with SR it's super nice. :cool: -
Jim Pommier
132Finished with modeling. Maybe get back to it in the next few weeks just to see if there's any significant changes. I used Brian's spreadsheet, but I tailored it towards what I wanted. So it's a little different.
"L-0: No low odds horses." 12 of 30 winners were BH Rank 1. Again keyed by LP, SR and Spd. The BH Rank 1's are strong contenders. Average win payouts in the L-0's was about $12.58. There were 6 +$20 winners in this category.
"L-1: 1 horse <2.91-1." This is by far the largest category. BH Ranks 1 and 2 were winning at 28.9%. Again, LP, SR and Spd. Also, E and EP not far behind. BH Rank 1's were winning at 28%. Seems a good handicapping strategy would be to ignore the BH Rank 1's, or only include them if they are very strong. Even then, look to adjudicate them if they are ranked low in trainer, jockey and/or condition (or whatever factors you like to use).
"L-2: 2 horses <2.91-1." BH Ranks 1 and 2 won at 53.8% of the time. Again-- LP, SR and Spd work well. Noticed that BH Ranks 2 with E and EP together work well. Also, BH Ranks 1 and 2 won the same number of races at 26% each. Note: 50% of the winners-- tTrk (Trainer at the Track) were Rank 1 or 2.
If any questions, please let me know. -
Gillycapper
39Nice Jim. I did around 20 races where 14 of 20 winners were BH rank 1 with LP, SR and SP in the L-o category.
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Jim Pommier
132Is the 20 races a mix of tracks or only tracks that you play? The modeling I completed used BAQ, GPX, WOX, FLX, MVR and PRX. Curious if you were using different tracks.
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Jim Pommier
132Okay. While modeling, I was wondering if the results would hold up at other tracks. Looks like you're getting similar results using SAX which is good news.
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Dave Schwartz
415↪Jim Pommier Yes. I will start a DMR model once the meet kicks in — Gillycapper
Are you modeling one track at a time?
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