• Dave Schwartz
    303
    h5k0zgj0og68me4i.png
    TDN01 starts with another single-horse 1st tier. As with BTP01, the horse looks almost as strong.

    7ld3b8swy5zx6sao.png
    However, the running styles in this race scream "questionable pace!" If the running styles are questionable, I simply cannot use pace to determine the winner.

    gzuaun3ne8xaaa1p.png
    I resort to the PSR number and get 3 contenders.

    Then I handicap with my "secret object" (hey, I can't share everything here.) and we get this:

    jqlnjy8owh0q2x29.png

    While the big favorite is close enough to be considered tied for rank of 1st, for a low-odds horse I'd demand he be the absolute top horse. If he was like 27% I could leave him in, but he's got to be a BALO. (Bet Against low-odds horse).

    Understand that I went THIS FAR to decide whether or not the #4 was play or BALO. Now that I have discovered this, the choice is simple:

    f5wpiu7vzeoe4y6c.png
    There were only 3 horses who COULD win the race and one is a BALO. That leaves the other 2.

    lj5731f8pr4wj3up.png

    WHAT ARE THE LEVERAGE POINTS?
    Now that we have our win bet, what other plays might we make?
    ________________________
    A Leverage Point is based upon this question:
    "How do I EXPLOIT what I believe to be true?"
    ________________________
    BALOs typically win only about 40% of the races they should win. But a large percentage of those non-wins turn into extra 2nds! This creates several leverage points:
    • 2nd in exactas
    • 2nd & 3rd in trifectas
    • 2nd, 3rd, 4th in supers

    It's kind of ironic how this works.
    _______________
    What about leveraging the 5 & 6 in exactas in the top spot?
    Sure, but with who?

    cym9tv909yyy685q.png
    The answer is to look at field size and take the horses who project to be above natural odds, with a minimum of 8/1. Thus, in a 6-horse field, we'll take anyone at 8/1 or above, giving us 3 horses.

    So now we have
    • 5 & 6 to win
    • Ex (5-6)/4
    • Ex (5-6)/(1-2-3)

    OK, here's another strange one:
    When you have a BALO AND a some Natural Odds Keys, boxing the 2 winners only works if there are no low-odds horses (i.e. below 3/1). Since #5 is projected to be 2.05 to 1, we do not do a 5/6 box.
    __________________________
    7i3smj5s6g4gmjt9.png
    This is a short field, so we wound up keying a lot of horses underneath, but we did hit it.

    We bet $16 and returned $49.80.

    I can hear you again saying, "Big deal. It's only a $49 exacta. Why don't you hit something difficult?"

    My dudes... I am looking for EASY, but the big ones will come.

    __________________________
    LESSON 2: LEVERAGE ALWAYS BEGINS WITH A GOOD QUESTION:
    "How do I EXPLOIT what I KNOW THAT OTHERS DO NOT?"

    This is a new kind of INFORMATIONAL ADVANTAGE.

    Think of it like this.
    You've determined what your Win Bet(s) are.

    In what other bets can you take advantage of what you know that the public likely doesn't?
    ________________________
    To be clear, LEVERAGE POINTS are not a one-size-fits-all thing, but there will be some standard SCENARIOS that will arise.

    I cannot tell you what YOUR leverage points are because your approach to the game is different than mine.


    ________________________
    KEY POINT:
    As you are building your processes, each step in the process ANSWERS A KEY QUESTION!

    Examples:
    • Who are the likely low-odds horses?
      (What I call "1st Tier.")
    • Is there a Bet-Against-Low-Odds horse? (BALO)
    • Who are the likely Early Speed horses based upon Running Style?
    • Do the Early Speed Running Styles indicate that the race will have a predictable pace?
    • Are there likely Early Speed RS horses that fit the model?
    • Which horses figure to qualify on pure ability?

    Each of the answers will change how the race should be handicapped and bet!
    ___
    Note: I am not saying that these are the questions YOU should ask. That is up to you to figure out.
    But the answer is certainly not:
    • Handicap
    • Make a Line
    • Bet the Overlays


    This will take some individual thinking - and possibly some discussion with someone who is getting it.
    ________________________
    I started this thread because strong players do this sort of thing. Maybe not formally, but they SEE THE RACES FROM A DIFFERENT POV.
  • Biniak
    54
    Dave,

    Thank you for the 'Concepts and POV' threads. Awesome of you to share so freely!
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