ky derby:

donald altemose

years past a 9f race run in 1:48+ with a BSR of 105 or higher was next to an automatic bet. today they have a hard time running a 100 BSR. The point is: being lightly raced and thrust into a high pressure race like the derby is disastrous to them. Post derby -the past few winners have dismal records. I just think they don't have the proper "bottom" for long term racing and that's the difference from "then" to now. just saying

PickMaster

I don’t know if Derby winners not training on is actually happening more than in the past. But if it’s true, your belief that it’s due to being them lightly-raced makes sense to me.

Dave Schwartz

I don’t know if Derby winners not training on is actually happening more than in the past. But if it’s true, your belief that it’s due to being them lightly-raced makes sense to me. — PickMaster

With data, it's easy to test. You can use the CAREER STARTS field.

PickMaster

It doesn't answer the question as to how Derby winners perform after the Derby, and if that's changed over the last 50 years or so. Still, why not post it? Here's an IV table of career starts for horses who ran in the last 11 Derbies.

Kentucky Derby.
600-CarStsWIN BETS
Field1 Field2  Starts   Pays    Pct   $Net     IV    PIV     DV     BV  AvPay AvOdds AvPubC
2                   2           0.0  $0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.54  $0.00  10.74   5.50
3                  14      2   14.3  $2.87   2.75   2.38   1.85   0.48 $20.11  12.43   6.79
4                  21      1    4.8  $0.00   0.93   0.82   0.00   0.46  $0.00  12.84   6.71
5                  51      3    5.9  $0.89   1.13   0.96   0.57   0.49 $15.13  12.14   6.63
6                  52      1    1.9  $3.30   0.37   0.43   2.13   0.35$171.62  17.17   7.48
7                  35      3    8.6  $5.23   1.63   1.78   3.37   0.38 $61.00  15.75   7.43
8                  19           0.0  $0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.28  $0.00  21.69   7.74
9                  10           0.0  $0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.34  $0.00  17.65   7.60
10                  6      1   16.7  $1.17   3.28   2.05   0.75   0.64  $7.00   8.93   6.00
11                  1           0.0  $0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.29  $0.00  20.78   8.00
12                  1           0.0  $0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.17  $0.00  35.73   9.00

Total             212     11    5.2  $2.11   1.00   0.97

$NetR=  0.00   IVR=  0.00   PIVR=  0.00 PubChR=  1.64

Dave Schwartz

It does if you look only at Derby races.
Weren't you doing that the other day?

Dave Schwartz

Filter on:
Circ=9
CD
10 fur
May
Sat only
GR=1
Purse>2,000,000 (?? Guessing what it was a decade ago)

Dave Schwartz

Here's a filter you can just copy & paste. Make sure you get everything between the lines.
___________________________________________

,FilterCopy:::,KY Derby , |SPCL| 0.0099.000 0.00 0.00 099990500050000 0999999 0999999 010010010001400 , ,0,0,0, ,0,0,0,0,999999,1,0,84009,9999,1, ,0,0,0,0,0,1,0, ,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, ,0,9 ,0, , ,CD ,0,99, ,1,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,1,1, ,10,10,B,99,99, ,1,1,1, ,0,0,0,0,1,0,0,0,0,0, ,1,1, ,0,1,0,0,1,1, ,0,9999999,9999999,9999999, ,2000000,9999999,9999999,9999999, ,1,1,1,1,1,1, ,0,1, ,0,99,99,99, ,0,99,99,99, ,0,99,99,99,0,99,99,99, ,0,32,0,8,0,8,0,8,0,8, ,4,16,1,4,1,4,1,4,1,4, ,0,200,200,200, ,0,200,200,200,0,0,200,200,200,0,0,200,200,200,0,8,0,8,0,8,0,8,0,8,0,8,0,200,0,200,1,1,1,1,99,200,99,200,0,200,0,999.99,0,99999,0,99999,0,99999,0,99999,0,99999,3,3,11,0,99,0,99,0,99,0,99,0,99,99,99,99,99,99,0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,

___________________________________________

Jim Pommier

Derby winners are 0 - 14 after the Derby-- past 3 years. Have to go back to Mandaloun to find a Derby horse that won races after the Derby. Only two (2) horses have won the derby with 8 or more career starts since 2000. Mind That Bird (8) and California Chrome (10). Several theories are out there. My opinion is breeding and the effects of medication. Horses need to be lightly raced to attempt the 1 1/4 mile Derby or think about the Triple Crown.

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