Has the Kentucky Derby winner already run his last prep?
We have seen some encouraging performances in the derby preps run to date but my gut tells me that the eventual derby winner will come from the preps to be run this upcoming weekend. How does everyone feel about this years derby crop?
I've only taken a very light look so far. If my memory is right, I think Derby winners often have a race about three weeks out. It may not be the best approach, but I usually look at the Derby on the last couple of days before the race.
Here is the "Winning" Profile for the last 4 Derby winners
No layoff line since the last race
were the last 4 winning posts
Beyers were 82 101 91 107 Average Beyer exiting last race was 95 so 90+ Beyers LR best
Either show no regression in L3 (Beyer either stays the same) or drops a few and picks back up in L3
22% Average Jockey win %tage and 26% for Trainer
Last race prep track horse has already had 1 start on that track prior to LR
Shows outside post in LR prep
(6/8 8/11 and 6/7 were shown from L4 winners)
Shows being the favorite in at least 1 of the L3 races
Born in the month of either march or may
Shows at least 1 start in the "Wet"
Shows 1 part of the race not moving positions (Ex 33 44 55 etc)
Either is Bay or Chestnut color
Sire Stud Fee Over $20k
Has at least 1 horse in today's field that has raced with him/her prior to today
Average TF Early 100 Late 91
Average Odds on morning-line 14-1 (County House was 30-1 so it skews the data)
Trainer has at least 1 stat over 20% (does not matter for stat but GrdStk was 24% Avg)
Shows at least 1 workout after LR with a workout over or at 5 Furlongs
Trainer/Jockey combo is over 25%Year not track (26% was the Average)
Shows going wide in at least 1 of the L3 races
Winner was bred in Kentucky
Shows a Career BB of at least over 90 (Average was 99)
Shows Career earnings of over $300k (Average was $575k)
Shows at least 1 weight change in L3 races
Shows at least 1 Itm finish L3 races
There is probably more that I missed but there are at least 25 different angles for the Last 4 winners and yes I did count Mandaloun as being the 2021 Derby winner for stats purposes
Thanks, Conley. Very interesting.
Lol- Conley you are the best!! I love those types of stats although IMO they are not reliable. I remember being touted on a college hoops game once where team A had not lost a road game in an arena whose capacity was less than 15,000 in several years. Well the stat held up as team A won once again.
I prefer angles that match up todays entrants. Such as the last 4 derby winners ranked 1-4 on LP.
Nevertheless I love reading these types of lists. I've had a very bad last 2 days being sick and this list certainly brought back some memories and made me smile
Hopefully there are a few gems among what Conley put together.
For no valid reason, it does bring to mind the sort of thing a local radio guy would say. When this team comes off a win and plays on Monday in an east coast city against a team that has lost two in a row and has not won a Monday game in 4 years... you get the idea. lol
In case I was not clear, I am not in any way trying to be critical of Conley. He put in a lot of work on those stats and I think they are well worth careful consideration. And, as Tony said, certainly a great read.
These are the only ones that matter on the list:
1) No layoff line since the last race *
3) Beyers were 82 101 91 107 Average Beyer exiting last race was 95 so 90+ Beyers LR best *
4) Either show no regression in L3 (Beyer either stays the same) or drops a few and picks back up in L3*
15) Average TF Early 100 Late 91 *
18) Shows at least 1 workout after LR with a workout over or at 5 Furlongs *
23) Shows Career earnings of over $300k (Average was $575k) *
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