What percentage of that final wagering amount do you think might be "whale "money and how much is due to late betting from online ADWs & OTBs ? — William Zayonce
Hope this helps. — Dave Schwartz
I'm wondering how they calculate their bet sizing when they don't know the final pool totals . I would have thought that they'd have a "liability threshold" , a % of the total pool, beyond which they would be at severe risk. Perhaps my assumption that their bet sizes were predicated upon the dollar amounts already in the pools. — William Zayonce
They don't view their liability as the other money in the pool. Their liability is something weird happening. — RanchWest
Thanks for your time Dave . After crunching, and understanding your numbers you've given me my answer. Clearly the track rebate is critical when choosing which one to play. Picking a high rebate track will mean bucking huge off swings by the 56.7% of whale generated "late" money. While at SA they only influence the odds to the tune of 22.2% of the "late" money. — William Zayonce
"Liability" is the risk factor for failure. — William Zayonce
Finding which contenders will likely take the most action is plenty good enough for my purposes. — William Zayonce
I built that engine.
It loses 4-6% per wagered dollar for me.
What about an engine that identifies win candidates in the 40% of races that those top 2 lose? — William Zayonce
I would think it's the same process that identifies false, vulnerable or" play against" choices in the top 2 spots. — William Zayonce