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Improve and Decline Rediscovered
  • Tom
    90
    I sometimes that a break from playing to reset my brain and clear it out.
    I like to go toPA, or Pace and Cap, or Dave's websites and reread old posts. to look at material with newer, more experienced eyes. Sometimes things that didn't hit me then do now.

    Yesterday, I founf a Dave thread from 010 about his development of Improve and Decline and it was interesting, so I spent the rest of the day re-listening to the seminar tapes.

    Boy, did I miss a ot in 2010!

    I was/am very interested in re-testing this material. The Reg Speed Sort idea was a breakthrough tool, imho, but the idea of sheet representations of the speed figures somehow escaped me. I was so intriqed, I was redoing losing races at 3am today.

    I f anyone else is using I/D, I would love get some discussions going.

    Being my seminar is 12 years old, and we now have Percentages and Probabilities update, a couple of ideas come mind.

    1. 30-33 days for a layoff might need to opened up to 45, to cover the sweet spot Dave identified.
    2. With GP now havig a synth track for off turf races, it might be worth looking at hoe grouping synth/turf when the PPs show a good mix.

    Any thoughts?
    Tom Options
  • Tony Kofalt
    403
    Good post Tom. I just checked my library and Improving and Declining must be the only Dave product I didn't purchase. I try to read everything Dave publishes as there are always hidden gems to be found. I hope this thread stays alive as I'd love to hear more.
    Tony Kofalt Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    I haven't found that thread. Can you direct me to it?
    RanchWest Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    Tom, I also read the boards and I check out a lot of what I find. Some of my best calculations come from messages posted publicly In fact, nearly all of my best numbers came either directly or indirectly from message boards. Of course, I do have a few adaptations and a few that I created on my own and some emulations of other sources..
    RanchWest Options
  • Tom
    90
    ↪RanchWest
    http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=75586&highlight=improve+decline

    Ranch, here is the thread
    Tom Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    412
    Wow!

    A trip down memory lane.

    Form Cycle has its own page in HSH. It's in the Pace Module.

    Dick Schmidt used to refer to that page as Those Sheet-Like-Things.

    The concept still works much as it did back over a decade ago, but the prices have changed drastically.

    Basically, today it points to 2 different kinds of horses:
    • In form at 5/2 or below
    • In form at long odds but severely out-classed.

    It is pretty rare to see an out of form horse bet down into the low odds ranges.

    Probably the best use is to confirm longshots that you liked a little anyway.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    I am only half-way through reading the thread, but already my mind is jumping through hoops thinking about form, class and pace scenarios. lol
    RanchWest Options
  • Tom
    90
    One thing I am seeing so far is a good way to just say a race is not worth the rest of the work and move on.
    Tom Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    412
    One thing I am seeing so far is a good way to just say a race is not worth the rest of the work and move on. — Tom

    How do you arrive at that?

    Please tell me it's not about all questionable horses, because those are the BEST races to play.
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • Tom
    90
    Every horse is a D.
    Tom Options
  • Dave Schwartz
    412
    Ah.

    Prices could be high.

    And nobody off a layoff?
    Dave Schwartz Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    I am looking at this, but it may be a while before I have much. With this being Thanksgiving week, I have a busy schedule right now. I have a friend in town from overseas.
    RanchWest Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    One thing I am seeing so far is a good way to just say a race is not worth the rest of the work and move on. — Tom

    Good point, Tom. I find the grades to be helpful. I am still having to do other handicapping, but it is a great way to evaluate form cycle.
    RanchWest Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    Lots of Cs at FG today, sloppy, yet a pretty formful day. I had all 8 winners in my contenders. Yet nobody hit the P6. Highest win pay on the day was $8.80
    RanchWest Options
  • Tom
    90
    I watched the first few cards and am impressed with the racing.
    Frankly, I am pretty tired of Aqu, so the variety of conditions they card is interesting.
    I am starting a SWIW spreadsheet and think I will give FG a good shot this winter.
    Tom Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    ↪Tom


    There was a chaos race at AQU today with a 48/1 winner, coming from next-to-last to win.
    RanchWest Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    ↪Tom
    ↪Tom


    Racing is good at FG and usually gets even better after Christmas.
    RanchWest Options
  • RanchWest
    503
    Had all 8 winners in my 4 contenders again today at FG. Nobody hit the P5 or P6 (again).
    RanchWest Options
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