Chaos

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  • RanchWest
    324
    Have either of you two tried/tested Quirin Speed Point percentage? When it's less than .15 weird happening occur.Biniak

    No, I am not sure I understand. 15 percent of what?

    I look at the top 3 Quirin speed figures because that is what will usually drive the pace. I also look at the Giles high Quirin count.
  • Biniak
    48
    Oh Randy Giles.

    No, add all the QSP together and divide the individual horses by the total. If the highest value is 15% that what I was referring to. For example, Horse A has 7 QSP and the total for the race is 47.

    Did I explain it correctly?
  • RanchWest
    324
    Yes, I believe I understand now. So, your example would qualify because 7 is less than 15% of 47.

    I also have my own number that I call "pressure", but I haven't found a correlation to chaos for it.
  • RanchWest
    324


    I think I see the premise for your number. The whole field is supplying more pressure than the high pressure horse can withstand. I have added that to my program to see if I find merit. Thanks.
  • Biniak
    48
    Excellent!

    BTW it seems to me that there should be another way to measure ES other than QSP. I realize QSP are reliable but have diminished betting value.
  • RanchWest
    324


    It's not the whole pace picture.

    I do a composite rating on the last 4 races degraded using Fibonacci for the BRIS pace ratings -- 2f, 4f, 6f and Late. That with my pressure rating, QSP and %M numbers give me a pretty good picture of pace. Then I also have regular Sartin style pace factors and my own closing points.

    I am a firm believer that looking at anything just one way can give a wrong impression.
  • Tony Kofalt
    284
    Hey Rick- Just for clarification, did you mean less than 15 speed points in the race? Thanks in advance for the clarification.
  • RanchWest
    324
    Hey Rick- Just for clarification, did you mean less than 15 speed points in the race? Thanks in advance for the clarification.Tony Kofalt

    Divide the highest QSP by the total QSP for all horses. If it is less than 15%, the premise is that chaos is possible.
  • Biniak
    48
    Hey Tony,

    Did Ranch's response answer your question? If not, I'll find a BEL race from last weekend.

    In my research, a lot of maiden races and 3-year-olds have less than 15 speed points.
  • Biniak
    48
    I was reading over this thread and recalled a discussion I had a with friend regarding chaos races. My friend noticed less predictable results when handicapping a race where entrants had not run to PAR. I remember doing a brief test about 10 years ago after our discussion. What I did was compare my projected figs to the race PAR. In my case it was the Beyer PAR. Some time has passed so I don't have the actual test data but I do recall seeing more unusual results in those races.
    Has anyone conducted any similar tests?
    Tony Kofalt

    I have tested this with Equibase Pars, without enough occurrences for a conclusive decision. Hopefully we can get other "Think Tankers" to chime in.
  • Dave Schwartz
    202
    I'm not sure if I have much to offer because, to me, "Chaos Race" means something very different than it seems to mean to you guys.

    Not saying you're wrong, but to me it indicates... well, chaos. LOL

    Now, I understand that in the mathematical sense, "chaos" really means that order exists where there seems to be no order.

    But, my opinion is that when you find a CHAOS RACE, you (essentially) don't handicap it because the handicapping won't select the winner.

    My belief being what it is, CHAOS could easily mean HANIDCAPPING WILL FAIL.

    I find TWO INSTANCES that consistently produce CHAOS RACES:
    • Very Low Odds Horse Loses
    • Early Speed Fails
  • RanchWest
    324
    For me, Chaos is when early speed falls apart. Horses known to be closers often win and sometimes at a big price. Most really fast final times are run fast throughout, so when early speed falls apart, a history of high speed ratings is not always required to win. I believe the entire process is predictable.
  • Jack Price
    16
    Dave has a product entitled "Understanding Early Speed".... In one of the later chapters he defines four distinct race shapes based upon "pace pressure" (using Quirin Early Speed Points).... If there is "no discernable pace pressure" or in other words, pace pressure is not predictable, then you have a "chaos" race.... This "process" has served me well and I'll leave it to Dave to elaborate if he so chooses....

    Or, I'm sure he'd be pleased if you purchased this excellent product!

    BTW, I'm not a shill for Dave and I must admit I've purchased most all of his products.... I've both used and discarded many of his ideas; but without exception, I've found handicapping "nuggets" in all of them!
  • Dave Schwartz
    202
    Dave has a product entitled "Understanding Early Speed".... In one of the later chapters he defines four distinct race shapes based upon "pace pressure" (using Quirin Early Speed Points).... If there is "no discernable pace pressure" or in other words, pace pressure is not predictable, then you have a "chaos" race.... This "process" has served me well and I'll leave it to Dave to elaborate if he so chooses....

    Or, I'm sure he'd be pleased if you purchased this excellent product!

    BTW, I'm not a shill for Dave and I must admit I've purchased most all of his products.... I've both used and discarded many of his ideas; but without exception, I've found handicapping "nuggets" in all of them!
    Jack Price

    Just awesome.

    I just happen to have a link right here.
    Understanding Early Speed
  • Tony Kofalt
    284


    Thank you guys! much appreciated
  • Tom
    51
    An idea Pandy wrote about in one of his books was to add the ESPs to the E2 rating in BRIS.
    I tried doing that using the first call, E1, best 2 of last 4 with promising results in evaluating thev early horses in the race shap.
  • RanchWest
    324


    I do a time degradation on the last 4 4f pace ratings. That's good for race shape, but I don't know how that fits into chaos.
  • RanchWest
    324
    Race 4 at CD, a classic chaos race. Formal Order got up at 9/1 off a 5/1 ML and 9/1 PL.
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