• Jim Pommier
    57
    Is there a way to tell what the Chaos rating is other than clicking on AI Race? If not, I'll need to add this step to my process. PRX R8, PRX R10, TDN R1, TDN R5, FLX R8 - all Chaos 5's. All have a No BALO horse with an A rating.
  • Dave Schwartz
    303
    No, that's the only way.

    This is mostly for your clarity...
    remember, Your CORE plus TWO Flips max.
    ______________
    However, you can view this as BALO+CHAOS.
    Thus, you now have the following outcomes possible from the ONE Flip:
    BALO + CHAOS FLIP
    _________________
       BALO   CHAOS
    0  NO     NO
    1  NO     YES
    3  YES    NO
    4  YES    YES
    
    __________________________________
    See how there are FOUR STATES?
    You need a CLEAR STRATEGY for each one!

    This is the key to GETTING CLARITY in your handicapping.
  • Jim Pommier
    57
    02JUL2024. The following were #1: No BALO race / Chaos 5. Several of these races had multiple AI BH's, but only 1 or 2 were BALO's. So there was still 1 or 2 AI BH Mag 1's left in the race. I made a few notes below so everyone can go back and review if they want. I'm not sure what the Clear Strategy would be, but something to think about. The three (3) A+ certainly catch my eye. But, note there were multiple A+'s in the race.

    TDN R1 #3 $26.00 Mag 1 A+
    PRX R5 #3 $55.60 Mag 0 A+
    PRX R7 #1 $16.40 Mag 0 D-
    PRX R8 #9 $5.80 Mag 1 BALO F
    PRX R10 #5 $12.60 Mag 1 B
    FLX R8 #4 $15.40 Mag 0 D

    The following were #4: BALO race / Chaos 5. In these races, any and all AI BH Mag 1's were BALO's.
    PRX R9 #5 $32.20 Mag 0 A+
    IND R1 #3 $5.60 Mag1 BALO C-
  • Dave Schwartz
    303

    :cheer: :cheer:
    This is the kind of stuff that gives you CLARITY about what works and what doesn't.

    I suggest that guys keep what I call a Decision Notebook.
    1. You create a page and at the top of the page you write a meaningful question.
    2. For example, "How good am I at predicting who will be on the lead at the 1st call?"
    3. You line the page with columns such as "My 1st Call," "Actual 1st Call"
    4. After the charts come in, you circle the horses under "My 1st Call" who are also in the "Actual" column.
    5. At the bottom of the page you put your scores and percents.

    Over the decades I've worked with maybe 10 guys who actually did this for any length of time. Pretty close to all of them who stuck with it improved their results.

    Most guys quit by about the 10th race because they didn't like seeing the reality of their numbers.

    REALITY IS KING!
  • Dave Schwartz
    303
    PS: It doesn't have to be about the end result of your handicapping.
    It can literally be about a question you have.

    Example: "Do Non-BALO Mag1s with LATE running styles do worse than those with EARLY Running Styles?"

    Because they are LOW ODDS it will not take a lot of races for you to test this - maybe just 200 to get a good idea.
  • Mark
    14
    Hey Dave! where are the Ira videos?
  • Dave Schwartz
    303
    Seems they are missing.
    Still looking for them.
  • Jim Pommier
    57
    Back to Chaos 5 races. When you click on AI Race it displays Chaos=5 and then Key Call=1st Call, Key Call=Str Call, etc. Is the AI saying that the Key Call displayed is still important even though it's a Chaos=5 race?
  • Dave Schwartz
    303
    Back to Chaos 5 races. When you click on AI Race it displays Chaos=5 and then Key Call=1st Call, Key Call=Str Call, etc. Is the AI saying that the Key Call displayed is still important even though it's a Chaos=5 race?Jim Pommier

    The two are completely different components.
    ___________________________
    Recall that KEY CALL is the RED letter. Since it is NOT GREEN it is NOT AI but computational in nature.
    ___________________________
    This is unlike the CHAOS definition - which is both formulaic and AI based. IOW, the AI built the formula and may even slightly modify it for a given race.
    (Note: Discussing how CHAOS is determined is much like the core AI's Heuristics Engine, a significant part of the entire process. This would be part of the "YES, BUT HOW DOES IT REALLY WORK? question which is a huge part of the trade secrets and cannot be explained.)
    ___________________________
    Once the smoke clears - all bugs fixed and us further down the path of future NECESSARY development - I will find the time to EXPLAIN how AI works to those who are interested.

    Sorry that I cannot provide a clearer answer today.
  • john g
    6
    that would be awesome!!
  • William Zayonce
    41
    I find this whole topic utterly intriguing. As someone who is completely ignorant of computer processes,I'm looking forward to some enlightenment. Meanwhile, some critical thinking and logical extrapolation will have to suffice. I have an abundance of questions which will,hopefully, be answered without need of asking.
  • Dave Schwartz
    303


    Still, you're invited to ask away.

    Plenty of people here have gained plenty of knowledge already.

    Yesterday's Live Play really helped in several ways, I think.
  • Mark
    14
    Dave, Is a video available from yesterday's live play?
  • Dave Schwartz
    303
    No, it was not recorded.
    It was just conversation - with @ponyplayer and @Jim Michalak leading the conversation.

    Was not meant to be recorded.
  • Mark
    14
    Ok thanks!
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