• Tony Kofalt
    284
    Let's take a look at the form of a couple of runners on Thursday, June 16. Evaluating 'how these horses will run' may make the difference between a winning and losing day. It will be fun get your point of view on these horses.
    Race 1- Let Her Inspire U (7-5)- She ran 3 improving races before going to the bench of her 2yo career in Sept 2021. How will she return?
    • Progress in each of her 3 races was a positive sign for her future.
    • She was well bet as the favorite in every lifetime start
    • She wins today if she repeats her last speed figure
    • She returns with lasix today
    • Todd Pletcher excels with this type of layup horse
    Conclusion:
    Her promising career was derailed in Sept by what I can only assume was an injury or bleeding incident. She figures to go postward at even money or less in her return. From a betting perspective I am making her a 'B' contender. I'm using her on my smaller tickets only because there is a price possibility later in the sequence. She certainly can win this but there are enough 'red flags' to prevent her from 'A' status.

    Race 4- Inkblot (10-1)- 'Turf only'. She was abysmal in first 2 races suffering defeats at long odds. I started to see some changes in her subsequent races.
    • In her 3rd start she did pass 5 horses in the stretch run. A first sign of life!
    • She was then rested 5 months and returned on the turf.
    • In that race she once again kicked in late running her top effort.
    • In her last she 'reversed form' and battled for the lead early. Improved speed is a good sign.
    • I expect a mild pace today, one where she can stay close.
    • She figures to go off a double digit odds.
    Conclusion::
    This turned out to be an easy decision for me. I will make Inkblot the only 'A' in this race. I see her as an improving young filly starting at solid odds. This is the type of wagering opportunity we should all look for.

    I look forward to your opinion on these two runners.
  • William Zayonce
    26
    Tony Kofalt
    Although maiden races are not my forte, I took a look at these. I found no reason to disagree with your strategy in race 1. Any of these could win. In race 4 ,I like your reasoning in taking the improving "Inkblot". It won't take much more improvement to outfoot the logical favorite Just a Nyquist. I did, however, give the inside horse, Valentia Island ,a long hard look ,mostly due to the strong connections and rider. She had an acceptable debut while staying close to the leaders in her debut, then a 5 month layoff . She came back in a sprint with a bit of a troubled trip. Now, after a shorter layoff and 5 works in the interim ,I have to think Castellano will have her close to today's pace, if not setting it. Personally, I'd have both "Inkblot" and "Valentia Island" as strong contenders on top with "Just a Nyquist" in close pusuit.
  • Tony Kofalt
    284


    Bill- I like your thoughts on Valentinia Island. I placed her 3rd on my list behind Inkblot and Just A Nyquist. Feels like we see this race the same way. Good luck !!!
  • RanchWest
    324
    Race 1: My automated line has 6-1-3-2-4-5 and I think that is a good line. On paper, the 6 gets the nod over the 1. I rank the firsters fairly close. The problem in wagering is that if the 6 fails, the 1 could run a good race. But if the 6 runs well, then I toss the 1 and go with 2 and 3 as my alternates. I'm inclined to lean toward the 6 returning well.

    Race 4: If they're on turf, my automated line has 4-5-8-11-7. Tough to get a complete fix without knowing the scratches. For the matchups based on BRIS Prime, I've got 1-4-11-13-7-5. I like those Prime rankings. I'll pick 1-4-11 with a longshot on the 9 based on her ability to close. Valencia Island went at auction for 200K and in her 3rd start she's offered up for 40k... concerning. I don't see a lot in the 6, but Clement is good with firsters.
  • Tony Kofalt
    284
    Thanks for the feedback thus far. I love trying these pieces of the puzzle.
  • Jack Price
    16
    Tony, I’ll wade in with the following comments…

    Bel1) In my opinion, #6 looks like a clear winner and has a minimum 50% chance of winning this race…most likely will go off at 3/5 or less. However, they’re all basically “unknowns” and much like your opinion, I would like to try and beat the favorite (especially in these types of lightly raced, state bred races)…but, I would still use the #6 as an “A” along with two others… My initial preference would be the two longest prices on the board… Or, if one of the first timers was being bet at or below their morning line, I might consider… Regardless, I would definitely play against (not use) the #1 who figures to be the likely second choice!
    An interesting trainer tidbit = Schosberg in the last 365 days is 4 for 8 with second time starters… #5 was well bet in her debut and has a bit of an excuse in her first attempt… With a ML of 12/1, I would most likely be using her!
    Anyway, I would wait for a look at the tote board and most likely I’m using three A’s = #6, #5 and a last- minute decision on one of the first timers….

    Bel4 / Turf Only) Sorry, I really can’t make a case for the #2… If she was turning back to a turf sprint off her last effort, I would wholeheartedly support your opinion! I just don’t see her turning the tables on the #4 who figures to improve in her second start for new trainer Atras… Anyway, I’ll certainly be rooting for you and your valiant strategy to single #2!
    If I were playing, I would probably look first to all the MSW droppers as potential “A’s”… #1, #7, #8, #11 and #13 with a first preference = #8... For me, the #4 and #6 would be "C's" at best.

    Tony, best of luck!
    Attachment
    Worksheet_Master_06.16.22 (2M)
  • Jack Price
    16
    Also,
    When playing horizontals, it’s important to remember the math…. Assuming, Tony is playing the early pick5 at Belmont and has found a single that should be a big price (#2 in race 4)…. Let’s assume Tony feels his “single” has a 25% chance of success and in the other four legs Tony feels he has an 80% chance to score.

    On a “caveman ticket”, this means .8 x .8 x .8 x .25 x .8 = .1024

    So, Tony has a 10% chance to hit this ticket or a 9/1 chance…. If he’s correct with his probability estimates and even though it’s hard to know exactly what the pick5 payout might be, he definitely has value at 9/1!

    But, if his actual probability is .5 x .5 x .5 x .15 x .5 = .0094, he has a 1% or 99/1 chance of hitting his ticket….

    Most of us know this, but just wanted to share a friendly reminder on how hard it is to hit the pick5! Most importantly, and even though it’s a best guess, it’s valuable to assign probabilities to each leg and make a forecast for success.

    Not sure why I feel the need to share this; but, oh well....
  • Tom
    51
    Interesting race. Todd is listed as 24% 90 days or more, but EB shows him only 9% 180 days or over.
    The 1 horse was recently scratched from a maiden claimer and the FTS are all negative to my guidelines, but the 4 is close, and has an interesting WO line, nothing for 6 weeks from mid march until early may, then a bullet wo and steady works since then. The 5 is definitely a contender, so I would use 4,5,6 in Race 1.
  • Jim Pommier
    25
    BEL R1 - #6/3/1
    BEL R4 - #11/4/2/1
  • Tom
    51
    R4 I would make 4 an A, 1 a B, and 2,7 as Cs.
    I really like the move with the 1, speed fade in MSW, dropping into MC with a bullet a few days ago, and a race in a sprint with "Eric the Anchor" aboard to darken his form.
  • RanchWest
    324
    In R4, scratch #8, #12, #13. Twinspires is still showing 14 and 15 in, but they are MTO and turf is showing Firm.
  • Biniak
    48
    "Eric the Anchor"Tom

    Very funny!
  • RanchWest
    324
    R1 ran 6-2, with 6 at 1-5.
  • RanchWest
    324
    R2 was interesting. The longest morning line horse went off as the favorite and won. Looked to run well up the stretch and didn't disappoint.
  • RanchWest
    324
    R3, at 12 MTP, the 2 is the favorite. Huh? I like 5-4-1.
  • RanchWest
    324
    I struck out on R3. 2-5.
  • Jack Price
    16
    Tony, that was a bad beat! The #2 ran great and you made a great pick! Great handicapping!
  • RanchWest
    324
    R4: The Clement firster got it paying $17 to win.
  • RanchWest
    324
    Lots of possibles in R5. I'll say 4-5-6-8. 8 seems low priced at 3/5.
  • RanchWest
    324
    Sheesh, I can't pick my nose today.
  • RanchWest
    324
    I'll give it another try. R6: 2-1-5-3
  • RanchWest
    324
    R6; my 4th choice won, should've been stronger in my opinion on that one. No horses are closing any ground.

    R7: 4-5-6-1A
  • RanchWest
    324
    They lulled me into the front end mindset and the 2 comes from off the pace, a horse that figured, paid $41.40.
  • RanchWest
    324
    R8: 7-10-3-9
  • RanchWest
    324
    Made up for the earlier trash. 10-7, 10 at 24-1. Exacta paid 117.00
  • RanchWest
    324
    R9: 10 8 9 7
  • RanchWest
    324
    No bueno, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
  • William Zayonce
    26
    One solid hit like that per day will keep you going. Nice score!
  • RanchWest
    324
    One solid hit like that per day will keep you going. Nice score!William Zayonce

    Just like golf.
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