• Dave Schwartz
    217
    Recommendation
    In our software we actually do not try to show the TOTE ODDS.
    We want to show the EXACT number, such as 2.52 or 2.99.

    It works far better for predicting low odds horses.

    Also, we like to show POOL PERCENTS.
  • Steven
    111
    I need to check a few things with the coding. 1). If the Score falls in between two Odds, which Odds are you defaulting to? For example, Scores 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28 etc. For example, if the Score is 16, is the Odds 6-1 or 7-1? Score 28, 3-1 or 7-2? Seems in Tom's examples he went both ways. I would recommend the lower, 16 = 6-1, and 28 = 7-2.
    2). How are you Scoring multiple ties? For example, 102, 87, 81, 81, 81. [10 - 6 - ? - ? - ?]. For example, 20, 19, 16, 16, 15. [10 - 6 - ? - ? - ?]. Thanks, Jim.


    It looks like I am using 16 = 7-1, 28 = 3-1 so I'm on the higher side.
    I can get this changed to the lower side but please note that this in not high priority right now. I'll let you know when I get to it.

    And....
    102, 87, 81, 81, 81. [10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 4].
    20, 19, 16, 16, 15. [10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 1].
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Sounds good Steven. No rush. I don't have any other bugs or suggestions.
  • Steven
    111
    I think this one got Jim's comments incorporated.
    Attachment
    UOL2.1 (137K)
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Looks good, easy to use. Test drive, simply looking for UOL overlays.
    GPX
    R3 - #4. ML 5-1 / UOL 3.5-1. +Trn/Jockey combo. +Trn 2nd off layoff.
    R5 - #2. 8-1 / 4-1. Surf change AW to Turf. +Jockey change. 2nd off layoff.
    R7 - #4. 5-1 / 2-1. Jockey change. 2nd after claim.
    R10 - #1. 4-1 / 1.8-1. Best Speed. AQU Shipper. MSW to MdClm drop.

    TAM
    R4 - #4. 8-1 / 3-1. 3.5 length winner last out. Back in 13 days. Needs to repeat Speed.
    R5 - #5. 12-1 / 4.5-1. Broke Maiden first out in last. Dirt to Turf, Sprint to Route.
    R7 - #9. 4-1 / 2-1. Best Speed. Ships in from AQU. +Jockey change.
    Let's see if we can catch a few winners. Thanks, Jim.
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Here's another one at TAM after scratches:
    R8 - #3. 8-1 / 4.5-1. +Trn/Jockey combo.
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    I wasn't sure what to expect. Looks like you can work this into your handicapping. Not sure how many $48.20 winners you'll see. I did see where Tom worked some of his picks into Exactas. 8 races-- 2 Winners and 3 Places.
    GPX
    R3 - #4. ML 5-1 / UOL 3.5-1. +Trn/Jockey combo. +Trn 2nd off layoff. 3rd.
    R5 - #2. 8-1 / 4-1. Surf change AW to Turf. +Jockey change. 2nd off layoff. Out.
    R7 - #4. 5-1 / 2-1. Jockey change. 2nd after claim. 2nd - $5.20.
    R10 - #1. 4-1 / 1.8-1. Best Speed. AQU Shipper. MSW to MdClm drop. 2nd - $3.80.

    TAM
    R4 - #4. 8-1 / 3-1. 3.5 length winner last out. Back in 13 days. Needs to repeat Speed. 2nd - $6.20.
    R5 - #5. 12-1 / 4.5-1. Broke Maiden first out in last. Dirt to Turf, Sprint to Route. 1st - $48.20 / $20.60.
    R7 - #9. 4-1 / 2-1. Best Speed. Ships in from AQU. +Jockey change. 1st - $7.40 / $3.60.
    R8 - #3. 8-1 / 4.5-1. +Trn/Jockey combo. Out.
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Let's try a few tracks today 27DEC2021.
    FGX
    R3 - #4. (ML 5-1 / UOL 2-1). #10 (ML 10-1 / UOL 4.5-1).
    R4 - #2 (6 / 2.5).
    R5 - #1 (8 / 5).
    R7 - #2 (8 / 4).
    R9 - #6 (8 / 2.5). #12 (15 / 3.5).
    R10 - #7 (8 / 2.5).

    HAW
    R2 - #3 (6 / 3.5).
    R5 - #1 (10 / 4.5).
    R6 - #10 (8 / 3.5).
    R7 - #6 (8 / 3). #10 (12 / 6).
    R8 - #5 (4.5 / 2).
    R9 - #2 (15 / 7).

    PRX
    R2 - #6 (15 / 8).
    R3 - #9 (5 / 2.5).
    R4 - #4 (4.5 / 2.5).
    R6 - #1 (4.5 / 2). #8 (6 / 3.5).
    R7 - #6 (5 / 1.4).
    R8 - #9 (10 / 3.5).
    R9 - #4 (15 / 7).
    R10 - #6 (6 / 2.5). #5 (6 / 3.0).
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    PRX updates after scratches.
    R3 - #9 (5 / 2.5).
    R4 - #4 (4.5 / 2.5).
    R6 - #1 (4.5 / 2). #8 (6 / 3.5).
    R7 - #6 (5 / 1.4).
    R8 - #9 (10 / 3).
    R10 - #6 (6 / 2.5). #5 (6 / 3).
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    FGX and HAW updates after scratches. FYI. Remember, I'm using the ML. With scratches, real-time odds come into play, and some of the selections are no longer overlays.
    FGX
    R3 - #4. (ML 5-1 / UOL 2-1). #10 (ML 10-1 / UOL 4.5-1).
    R4 - #2 (6 / 2).
    R5 - #1 (8 / 5). #13 (10 / 3.5).
    R7 - #9 (8 / 2.5). #3 (6 / 3).
    R8 - #1 (8 / 3.5).
    R9 - #6 (8 / 2.5). #12 (15 / 3.5).
    R10 - #7 (8 / 2.5).

    HAW
    R1 - #5 (5 / 2.5).
    R2 - #3 (6 / 3).
    R5 - #1 (10 / 4.5).
    R6 - #10 (8 / 3.5).
    R7 - #6 (8 / 3). #10 (12 / 6).
    R8 - #5 (4.5 / 2).
    R9 - #2 (15 / 7).
  • Steven
    111
    Glad someone is using this.

    Here is the latest version of TUOL (TOMS ULTIMATE ODDS LINE). I corrected the heading to be consistant with the version (V2.2 now), cleaned up the interface just a little bit (you may not even notice), updated the instructions and now Tom's PDF is included in the zipped file.
    Attachment
    Toms Ultimate Odds Line (1M)
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Thanks for the updates Steven. Mixed results today. But, just looking for overlays with no other handicapping. 2 Wins and 5 Places. Did catch another $40+ winner. Also, noticed a few selections that were bet down to, or close to the UOL, that would have been thrown out if you were simply looking only for strong overlays.
    FGX
    R3 - #4. (ML 5-1 / UOL 2-1). Out. #10 (ML 10-1 / UOL 4.5-1). Out.
    R4 - #2 (6 / 2).Out.
    R5 - #1 (8 / 5). 2nd - $9.20. #13 (10 / 3.5). Out.
    R7 - #9 (8 / 2.5). Out. #3 (6 / 3).Out.
    R8 - #1 (8 / 3.5).2nd - $5.20.
    R9 - #6 (8 / 2.5). Out. #12 (15 / 3.5). Out.
    R10 - #7 (8 / 2.5). 3rd.

    HAW
    R1 - #5 (5 / 2.5). 1st - $7.80 / $4.20.
    R2 - #3 (6 / 3). 2nd - $5.20.
    R5 - #1 (10 / 4.5). Out.
    R6 - #10 (8 / 3.5). Out.
    R7 - #6 (8 / 3).Out. #10 (12 / 6). Out.
    R8 - #5 (4.5 / 2). 2nd - $3.20.
    R9 - #2 (15 / 7). Out.

    PRX
    R3 - #9 (5 / 2.5). Out.
    R4 - #4 (4.5 / 2.5). Out.
    R6 - #1 (4.5 / 2). Out. #8 (6 / 3.5).Out.
    R7 - #6 (5 / 1.4). Out.
    R8 - #9 (10 / 3). 1st - $47.20 / $15.20.
    R10 - #6 (6 / 2.5). Out. #5 (6 / 3). 2nd - $6.20.
  • Tony Kofalt
    286
    Latest version up and running on my PC. Thanks again Steven. It will be interesting to monitor this puppy in January
  • RanchWest
    377
    Interesting. PRX R8 is the race I didn't have in my Top 4... $47.20.
  • Tom
    57
    The software looks great!
    Very easy to use - easier than adding up everything by hand. LOL
  • Steven
    111
    Great! And thanks!
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Good morning Steven. There appears to be a bug where some UOL's are defaulting to 100-1. I checked a few entries today 12/30 from AQU, GPX and FGX. I tried to find a pattern, but didn't see anything. If you check some of the low ML entries, 3-1, 4-1, etc, you'll see where the UOL's are 100-1. Thanks, Jim.
  • Steven
    111
    I’ve not looked at this yet but the software will only rank the top 5 horses, all others will be 100-1. And that is based on the horses cumulative rank in the 5 categories all as per Tom’s methodology ( ml odds is not a criteria) And then on top of all that, it is not a mathematical odds line.

    I’ll have a look and see if something else is going on.
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Okay, I was not aware of this rule-- "the software will only rank the top 5 horses, all others will be 100-1." I checked several entries, and this appears to be what's happening. The top 6th or 7th low ML entries that I checked are earning points in the 5 categories, but LESS than the top 5, therefore are 100-1. I think you'll see the same. Just had me concerned when I saw it. Thanks, again-- Jim.
  • Steven
    111
    Jim, I may have misinterpreted Tom's instructions so if you think it's worth it, I can change the program so All the horses get an odds line. It's an easy fix so don't worry about creating work.
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Okay, if it's an easy fix.
  • Steven
    111
    Here is Toms Ultimate Odds Line V2.3. All odds are now shown not just the top 5, I updated the instructions to match the new output and also have included Toms Ultimate Odds Line pdf "how to".

    As always, let me know if (when) you find any bugs or if you have questions.
    Attachment
    Toms Ultimate Odds Line V.2.3 (1M)
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Thanks Steven. I'm very busy this week. But I have the new version downloaded and will try and test drive it this weekend or sometime next week. Thanks, Jim.
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    I'm not sure what to make of the results. Below is from yesterday 15JAN2022 at GPX and TAM. I tossed 1 maiden race at TAM since there were several FTS's. I highlighted a couple of overlays. There is at least 1 overlay in almost every race. So I think you need to add additional handicapping and/or use in verticals and horizontals. I know Tom provided a few working examples at the start. Perhaps he can provide a few more.
    GPX
    ML 3 / UOL 4.5
    ML 3.5 / UOL 3.5
    1.2 / 4.5
    15 / 15
    4.5 / 3.5
    1.2 / 1.8
    4 / 2.5
    4 / 4
    2.5 / 2
    3.5 / 3.5
    20 / 56
    TAM
    ML 30 / UOL 22
    ML 2 / UOL 1.6
    3 / 15
    3.5 / 3.5
    4 / 6
    2 / 3.5
    5 / 7
    10 / 4.5
    2 / 1.8
  • Steven
    111
    Well we did substitute trainer win percentage for average class of the last 3 races but you have a good point. Roughly, how did they run?

    I've been at this long enought to realize that a 100% mechanical method is probably not going to do it for most people (ask me how I know), but it could be a good starting place.

    I'm open to adding something to the UOL program as long as it's not a multi-hour type deal so if anyone has any suggestions, let me know.

    And I'm not really sure that a ML 30 / UOL 22 is a legitmate overlay.
  • Jim Pommier
    26
    Thanks Steven. Let me give some thought to any add-ons. I agree with your statement about 100% mechanical methods and angles. Tom did post this-- "hitting over 50% winners in the top 2, 64% in the top 3, and 25% exactas in the top 3." Thanks again for your help.
  • Ramon
    2
    Hi, I'm new to the forum. This is a nice and useful odds app.

    If I may offer a couple of suggestions. In my experience earnings is a good indicator of class. It would be good to be able to change the trainer rating with the earnings rating. Or have a drop-down list and pick from a few factors.

    The last paceline may be a good predictor, but sometimes the best out of the last 6, or the best 2 out of 4, may give a better indication of ability. It would be nice to be able to choose how many pacelines to utilize.

    I may be asking too much from a free app developed in your spare time! Thanks anyways.
  • RanchWest
    377
    An odds line is an odds predictor, not a performance forecast.

    if you want to predict performance, maintain records on the effectiveness of your factors. I am currently profiling 19 factors by route/sprint and surface and track.
  • Dave Schwartz
    217
    An odds line is an odds predictor, not a performance forecast.RanchWest

    I would contend that they are directly related.
    Years ago, two of our players - a data geek & a programmer - banded together to form a partnership.

    The concept was that they would build a model entirely based upon HOW THE PUBLIC BETS.

    The idea was that they'd build this model, tweak/skew the hit rates towards the low odds horses (which represents reality) and produce an accurate win probability for each horse.

    At the time I did not see the value in it. (I was wrong.)

    Those two became a PROFESSIONAL PARTNERSHIP, but it turned out to be short-lived as the data geek was a guy with a real gambling problem. The "programmer" mortgaged his house to take a year off to play and never looked back. (As God is my witness, this is a 100% true story.)

    Sadly, the programmer died very young from throat cancer.

    [Special note for very long-time HSH users who might recall the player: His initials were "TD."]
  • Steven
    111


    Speaking as the UOL programmer*, yes you are asking a bit much for a free app.

    *Programmer only, concept development goes to Tom.
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