• Conley
    402
    Here are the averages for a few stats that I have been following in my spreadsheet
    I do not have the Brisnet PP's for Day #3 but it was also muddy so I will leave it out

    I will also be trying to post track bias notes/stats along with each days par times using Dave's Pars too when I get the chance

    Abbreviations
    PO Post #er
    ODD Odds (Line)
    PTO Post Time Odds
    DSLR Days Since Last Race
    QSP Quirin Speed Pts
    SFLR Speed Figure LR
    SFB2/3 SF Best 2/3
    JW% Jockey Win %
    TW% Trainer Win %
    J/T% Jockey/Trainer Win %
    BPP Brisnet PP
    CC Current Class
    ACL3 Average Class Last 3
    EPLR Early Pace Last Race
    LPLR Late Pace Last Race
    AVGE1 Average E1 Dis/Sur
    AVGE2 Average E2 Dis/Sur
    AVGLATE Average Late Dis/Sur
    TFEP Timeform Early Pace
    TFLP Timeform Late Pace
    BL1C (race) Beaten Lengths 1st Call
    BL2C (race) Beaten Lengths 2nd Call
    Win Payout ($2) Win Payout for $2


    Let me know if you have any questions or comments
    Attachment
    What's Winning At Oaklawn (63K)
  • William Zayonce
    32
    The PDF is a welcome addition! Thanks Conley. Will look forward to see how things average out over the course of the meet. ( I've only played Oaklawn twice before)
  • Conley
    402
    The PDF is a welcome addition! Thanks Conley. Will look forward to see how things average out over the course of the meet. ( I've only played Oaklawn twice before)William Zayonce

    No problem William!

    I am trying to also get some Par Times up for Oaklawn too just 1 quick question for Dave if he can see this:

    Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds

    Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
    And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times?

    Just wanting to know these before I start computing the figures

    Stay tuned folks
  • Conley
    402
    And there is another part in your Par Times book where it shows an example like this

    Par 1:11:50
    Race 1:11:20
    Difference fast by 0:30
    multiply by 5 (lengths per second) fast by 1:50
    add 100 to get +100:00
    speed rating of race 101:50
    subtract horse's lengths behind to get -3:00
    speed rating of horse 98:50

    When it says to multiply by 5 (lengths per second) how do I figure that out? Is it always x5 or where do I get this multiply by number?

    I am really dumbfounded when it comes to things like this so if someone knows the answer (Dave or someone else if able) that would give me a much better understanding on how to compute times on my own
  • Dave Schwartz
    234
    Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds

    Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
    And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times?
    Conley

    If you want to know what the PAR FOR THE RACE would be, then:

    1. Start with the CLASS PAR for the level (i.e. the par number like 103.4 or whatever)
    2. Subtract the Female adj.
    3. Subtract the statebred adjustment.
    (Don't forget the N2L adjustment if applicable)
    This number becomes PAR NUMBER for the race.

    However, as I explained in Percentages & Probabilities, a more powerful approach is to look at the mix of horses in the race and build a STRENGTH RATING for the actual race and use that.

    This way, the level of the race is determined by the actual HORSES rather than the WRITTEN CONDITIONS of the race.
  • Conley
    402
    Ok everyone I have just finished the Pars for Day #1 at Oaklawn and is attached

    1 question: Am I doing this right or do I need to fix something in order to make them "better"
    Attachment
    What's Winning At Oaklawn - 2021 Pars (49K)
  • Steven
    111
    I don't want to derail this thread but Dave..

    However, as I explained in Percentages & Probabilities, a more powerful approach is to look at the mix of horses in the race and build a STRENGTH RATING for the actual race and use that.

    This way, the level of the race is determined by the actual HORSES rather than the WRITTEN CONDITIONS of the race.


    Is this the average of the best three (3) in the race? Seems like I heard this in a workshop but I don't remember it exactly.
  • Dave Schwartz
    234
    Is this the average of the best three (3) in the race? Seems like I heard this in a workshop but I don't remember it exactly.Steven

    It is how ever you choose to look at it, but better would be:

    Best-of-Last-2 in sprints
    Best-2-of-Last-3 in Routes.
  • Conley
    402
    Updated "What's Winning At Oaklawn"
    Last Date on File: 12/10/2021
    Attachment
    What's Winning At Oaklawn - 2021 Avg (64K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    292

    Conley, thank you for your fine work!! Clearly looks like you want to focus on horses on or near the lead (unless I'm misreading something). To me a real bias is underway.
    Also something that may provide more power is to consider using ranks for some of the factors. For example is a 113.2 BPP the highest ranked BPP in the first race? I believe a rank would provide a clearer picture for EP and LP factors as well.
    Thanks again
  • Conley
    402
    Conley, thank you for your fine work!! Clearly looks like you want to focus on horses on or near the lead (unless I'm misreading something). To me a real bias is underway.
    Also something that may provide more power is to consider using ranks for some of the factors. For example is a 113.2 BPP the highest ranked BPP in the first race? I believe a rank would provide a clearer picture for EP and LP factors as well.
    Thanks again
    Tony Kofalt

    Thanks for your kind words, Tony!

    I was thinking that when I started this project but I have found out that sometimes a horse might not have the data available for him/her and could cause some craziness when trying to find that horse for a specific rank

    The way I have done is the averages on what you should be looking for in a horses data like "Look for horses who have a Last race speed figure of 63.85 or higher" "Look for horses who score a Brisnet PP rating of 121.2 or higher"

    I really am a noob when it comes to stuff like this but I hope you and others can take this info and win with it!
  • Steven
    111
    Hey Guys. I don't want to mess up anything you all have got going here but if there is any interest, I can post up my "What's Winning" data for Oaklawn. Either for the meet so far or for all of 2021 including the meet so far.
  • Conley
    402


    Yes please I think others will love it thanks!

    And I think if you can show for this meet would be best
  • Steven
    111
    Will do!
  • Conley
    402
    Updated "What's Winning At Oaklawn"
    Includes all Averages along with Track Bias Notes
    Last Date on File: 12/12/2021
    Attachment
    What's Winning At Oaklawn (1) (83K)
  • William Zayonce
    32
    Conley
    These stats seem to indicate a clear speed bias so far. Thanks for the update!
  • Conley
    402


    You are absolutely correct!

    Each day has favoured speed and it will only progress through the meet (unless a rainy day causes it to stop)
  • Steven
    111
    OPX 12.3.21 thru 12.12.21 all races, all distances and surfaces
    Attachment
    OPX_DEC_2021_ALL (95K)
  • Steven
    111
    OPX 12.3.21 thru 12.12.21 Dirt Sprints
    Attachment
    OPX_FALL_2021_DIRT_SPRINTS (95K)
  • Steven
    111
    OPX 12.3.21 thru 12.12.21 Dirt Routes
    Attachment
    OPX_FALL_2021_DIRT_ROUTES (95K)
  • William Zayonce
    32
    These stats are already showing some promising trends, particularly those involving EP , LP and QES ratings. Fine work
    Steven!
    Would you please provide a recap of your column headings? I'm not familiar with or don't remember many of them.
  • Steven
    111
    I needed to put all of this down in one place anyway.

    Column headers are ranks of:

    ML_20 MORNING LINE ODDS
    PT_21 POST TIME ODDS
    PRIMEP_22 PRIME POWER
    QES_23 QUIRIN EARLY SPEED
    PES_24 PANDOLFO EARLY SPEED LAST RACE ONLY
    EPACE_25 OTHER CALCULATED EARLY PACE, BEST 3 OF LAST 4
    LPACE_26 OTHER CALCULATED LATE PACE, BEST 3 OF LAST 4
    LRS_27 LAST RACE SPEED
    BL2_28 SUM OF BEATEN LENGTHS LAST 4 RACES
    B_365_29 BEST SPEED IN LAST 365 DAYS
    HI_SPD_30 IMPROVE DECLINE BEST SPEED
    LO_SPD_31 IMPROVE DECLINE LOW SPEED
    FW_SPD_32 FW SPEED
    Q_2nd_CALL_33 QUALIFIED SECOND CALL, LIKE FULCRUM BUT LOOKS AT LAST 2 RACES
    SAR_34 SARTIN FPS COMBINATION
    TR/JO_35 TRAINER JOCKEY COMBINES WIN PERCENTAGE
    TRN_36 TRAINER WIN PERCENTAGE
    JOC_37 JOCKEY WIN PERCENTAGE
    TRN_SPEC_38 TRAINER SPECIALITY
    WO_39 HIDDEN WEAPON RATING BASED ON LAST WORKOUT
    TD_APV_40 TIME DELAYED APV
    CURYR_APV_41 CURRENT YEAR APV
    PREYR_APV_42 PREVIOUS YEAR APV
    COMBYR_APV_43 COMBINED YEAR APV
    DIST_APV_44 DISTANCE APV
    TRK_APV_45 TRACK APV
    DIRT_APV_46 DIRT APV
    TURF_APV_47 TURF APV
    ALLW_APV_48 ALL WEATHER APV
    GR%_49 GOOD RACE PERCENTAGE
    QES78_50 TOP Q EARLY SPEED OF 7 OR 8
    QES56_51 TOP Q EARLY SPEED OF 5 OR 6
    QES34_52 TOP Q EARLY SPEED OF 3 OR 4
    E1LR_53 - E1 LAST RACE
    E2LR_54 E2 LAST RACE
    LPLR_55 LATE PACE LAST RACE
    AVG_CLS_L3_56 AVERAGE CLASS LAST 3 RACES
  • Conley
    402
    Updated "What's Winning At Oaklawn"
    Includes all Averages along with Track Bias Notes
    Last Date on File: 12/19/2021

    *Please note: I am only including Fast and Good days in my reports so that is why you see "No Data" on some of the days*
    Attachment
    What's Winning At Oaklawn (2) (90K)
  • Steven
    111
    Sorry guys, things are even more eratic than usually around here. Here is OPX 12.3.2021 to 12.31.2021.

    If you notice such things, there is a new column Q1_LRS1_57. This is sort of a spot play where that looks for the horse with the number 1 Q Speed horse (top ranked regardless of number) that also has the best (top ranked) last race speed number. I'll post up sprints and routes next.
    Attachment
    OPX_FALL_2021_All (96K)
  • Steven
    111
    Dirt Sprints
    Attachment
    OPX_FAll_2021_DIRT_SPRINTS (96K)
  • Steven
    111
    Dirt Routes
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_Dirt_Routes (95K)
  • William Zayonce
    32
    This looks like an interesting addition!
  • Tom
    69
    Steven, should be OP instead of GP?
  • Steven
    111
    I checked. While it says GPX, it is really OPX, but I did change the name and here it is.

    And erratic is spelled erratic.
    Attachment
    OPX_2021_Dirt_Routes (73K)
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