• Future contests?

    Have a min #er per race you can bet per day/week

    You could either have the same style of play as we are now with $20 min each race or have a live bankroll so you play with the $ollars you have accumulated from past races
  • 2022 Saratoga contest, Week 1 thread (all players post here) July 12-July18, 2022

    So just to confirm lets just say I want to do 5 selections tomorrow for Saratoga are you saying I have to make ALL of our selections before the 1st race correct?

    I actually do like Dustin's idea of it being automated maybe we can do it that way or switch it so he has the timestamp then date race #er horse and ML then finish/payout (if the horse wins)
  • 2 potential lone speed horses at Bel on 6-30

    r4; 88/91/83/88
    Projecting the stretch to be the slowest time/split of the race
    r8; 80/83/85/86
    Projecting the start to be the slowest time/split of the race

    In R#4 I was projecting a somewhat fast pace going from the 1/2 to 3/4 and for R#8 I was projecting a slow race to start and then pick up after

    Race 4 was favouring E E/P at the meet but was 50/50 during the week for E and P horses
    Since I thought the pace would be fast at the 1/2 way mark of the race I would eliminate the E and P horses which were #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 but I did keep #2 #3 #5 #6 since I thought they would keep their stamina and also showed strong #ers at the end now with the #1 and #1a I would keep them both because they are late closers and figured they would be around in the end so now I have the contenders of #1/1a #2 #3 #5 #6; Now we narrow down our horses to 3 which I would keep #1/#1a for late closing #2 showing strong #ers at the end #3 showing good #ers but throw out the #5 and #6 for having early speed so our new top 4 are 1-1a-2-3 which the #3 won 1a was 2nd and 2 was 3rd!

    Race 5 was favouring E and P horses 50/50 for the meet but was 100% of P horses during the week so I would eliminate E horses due to myself projecting the P and S horses to favour due to the slow pace upfront so that eliminates the #2 #4 and #8 out of contention; So now lets narrow down the rest of the field! (not in order) Keeping #7 #1 #6 #3 #10 showing strong #ers later on and we will throw out #9 #8 not showing strong #ers late; Now narrowing our contenders to 4 which we will do with the best #ers late which were #7 #6 #1 and #3 throw out #10 just narrowly getting beat by #3 numbers so our Top 4 are now 1-3-6-7 which #1 won #7 was 2nd #3 was 3rd and #6 was 4th!

    I am still learning all of this and sorry for past posting but projecting the pace with my own numbers will soon pay off which it did in both of these races! And showing this as an example not for bragging rights
  • 2022 Race Of The Day Thread

    2022 ROTD Thread

    2022 ROTD Record Top Selection: 1-0-1-0 -2.00
    2022 Exotics Record: 1-1 +60.90

    Day #2
    Gulfstream Park R9 OC $62k/C 5 Furlongs Turf (Temp Rail Distance set at 15 ft)

    :9: Artemus Citylimits 7/2
    This gelding out of Temple City has been racing in New York in the last 3 races and to no surprise did well in those with 2 2nds and 1 3rd place finishes; Ships down to GP today where trainer Mike Maker has done well with shippers hitting at 18%/44%; Has the best last race speed rating and holds a good Best Turf Speed #er in this race and cutting back to 5 Furlongs makes him a threat to win it all

    :1: Quick Tempo 4-1
    Even though 'Tempo has not raced in over 2 months you cannot be mad at what he is trying to accomplish in recent races; Sure the form might look off but if you watch the replays you can see that he is a horse that needs the lead and wants to hold onto it before he runs out of gas! This is the 3rd time Quick Tempo has tried turf in his career but cutting back in distance with the new jockey he could hit the board here today

    :5: The Virginian 9/2
    Was chasing 3 wide in his most recent race where he just got beat by a head to finish 2nd around odds of 5-6 to 1; He shows that he can handle the Gulfstream Turf and trainer Steve Klesaris does good on Turf starters with a win percentage of 16% and an Itm percentage of 44%; Will have a fighting chance to beat them all turning for home

    Win :9:

    Exacta Box :1::5::9:
  • Oaklawn Park Handicapping Info 2021-22

    Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds

    Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
    And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times?

    If you want to know what the PAR FOR THE RACE would be, then:

    1. Start with the CLASS PAR for the level (i.e. the par number like 103.4 or whatever)
    2. Subtract the Female adj.
    3. Subtract the statebred adjustment.
    (Don't forget the N2L adjustment if applicable)
    This number becomes PAR NUMBER for the race.

    However, as I explained in Percentages & Probabilities, a more powerful approach is to look at the mix of horses in the race and build a STRENGTH RATING for the actual race and use that.

    This way, the level of the race is determined by the actual HORSES rather than the WRITTEN CONDITIONS of the race.
  • Oaklawn Park Handicapping Info 2021-22

    The PDF is a welcome addition! Thanks Conley. Will look forward to see how things average out over the course of the meet. ( I've only played Oaklawn twice before)William Zayonce

    No problem William!

    I am trying to also get some Par Times up for Oaklawn too just 1 quick question for Dave if he can see this:

    Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds

    Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
    And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times?

    Just wanting to know these before I start computing the figures

    Stay tuned folks
  • Oaklawn Park Handicapping Info 2021-22

    Here are the averages for a few stats that I have been following in my spreadsheet
    I do not have the Brisnet PP's for Day #3 but it was also muddy so I will leave it out

    I will also be trying to post track bias notes/stats along with each days par times using Dave's Pars too when I get the chance

    PO Post #er
    ODD Odds (Line)
    PTO Post Time Odds
    DSLR Days Since Last Race
    QSP Quirin Speed Pts
    SFLR Speed Figure LR
    SFB2/3 SF Best 2/3
    JW% Jockey Win %
    TW% Trainer Win %
    J/T% Jockey/Trainer Win %
    BPP Brisnet PP
    CC Current Class
    ACL3 Average Class Last 3
    EPLR Early Pace Last Race
    LPLR Late Pace Last Race
    AVGE1 Average E1 Dis/Sur
    AVGE2 Average E2 Dis/Sur
    AVGLATE Average Late Dis/Sur
    TFEP Timeform Early Pace
    TFLP Timeform Late Pace
    BL1C (race) Beaten Lengths 1st Call
    BL2C (race) Beaten Lengths 2nd Call
    Win Payout ($2) Win Payout for $2

    Let me know if you have any questions or comments

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