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  • Jim Michalak
    41
    In light of Dave's series on early speed, what are the early speed favoring tracks and surfaces? thanks.
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    In light of Dave's series on early speed, what are the early speed favoring tracks and surfaces? thanks.Jim Michalak

    I know this may sound basic, but... How would you define a speed-favoring track?

    Is it based upon total wire-to-wire wins or something else?
  • Jim Michalak
    41
    Horse(s) either on the lead or within 1-2 lengths at the first call that win 30% of the time or more.
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    30% is a little light.
    The 1st call leader (as I recall) is like 52% in sprint races.
    IOW, that would be NORMAL.
  • Chuck Jones
    31
    The "definition" is a tough one to me. Cheaper tracks (PEN, CT, MNR, etc) seem to have the most powerful early speed numbers. But, we also know that in cheaper races, with cheaper horses, early speed will dominate the most. Soooo, I'm not sure how you dig into all of that, and separate it out, to know the "true speed"
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    I started to run a query on this question.
    However, my software is designed to easily answer questions about THIS track as opposed to which track(s) are best at something.

    Frankly, it is too much work to produce that answer.
  • Jim Michalak
    41
    Dave: track bias, preferably early is what I was looking for. Thanks.
  • Dave Schwartz
    417

    Everything we do is one track at a time.
    I can do that one track at a time but cannot give you a sorted list without putting in maybe 4 hours of work.
  • Dave Schwartz
    417

    This is excellent work.
    Care to show a screenshot of how you do this work?
    (Dang, I wonder if you can do that here.)
  • Dave Schwartz
    417
    It's nothing special that I do all I do is download past results charts from Equibase then using my own observations for tabbing what horses are what running styles along with 1c/2c beaten lengths plus my mini track bias notes I can complete this in under 1-2 hours tops for 4 daysConley
    1-2 hrs Per track?
  • William Zayonce
    41
    Jim Michalak
    1
    Dave: track bias, preferably early is what I was looking for. Thanks
    I don't have numbers but observation suggests that the tracks measuring less than 1 mile generally favor speed slightly more than the longer tracks. Notable exceptions would be the Aqueduct inner course and Emerald Downs( probably the fastest and most speed favoring 1 mile track on the continent).
  • William Zayonce
    41
    on't have numbers but observation suggests that the tracks measuring less than 1 mile generally favor speed slightly more than the longer tracks. Notable exceptions would be the Aqueduct inner course and Emerald Downs( probably the fastest and most speed favoring 1 mile track on the continent).
    It appears that I've been out of the loop too long! Didn't know that the inner at Aqueduct had been replaced in 2017.
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