• Dave Schwartz
    187
    In this video, I will cover my playing and betting strategy.
    I will apply it to the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

    Key Points
    • 2 Breakthrough Rules for Finding Bet Against Low-Odds Horses
    • How to Know When a Race Will likely Produce Huge Rewards
    • How My Wagering Strategy Works Makes Me Tough to Beat
    • What if You Knew Which Call the Winner Would Come From?
    • 2 Simple Systems to Know Whether the Race Runs Early
    • Here's Why You Don't Have to Bet Longshots to Win

    Click the link below to watch the video.
    (1:58)
    My Playing Strategy Plus Kentucky Derby, 2022
  • Jim Pommier
    22
    Is the video still available? Watched it this morning and getting an error now. Thanks, JIm.
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    <Code>AccessDenied</Code>
    <BucketName>hstreet</BucketName>
    <RequestId>tx000000000000000087c82-00627afc95-13e350d78-us-east-1-iad1</RequestId>
    <HostId>13e350d78-us-east-1-iad1-us-east-1</HostId>
  • RanchWest
    277
    I am getting the same error.
  • Jim Pommier
    22
    Working okay now. Thanks.
  • RanchWest
    277
    Just to clarify, when I make the elimination to closers, I already have a calculation for that, so I look at it as more of a filter than handicapping because I don't have to calculate or evaluate on the spot.
  • Jim Pommier
    22
    Dave, thank you for the video. At least for me, it was very helpful. I have a few questions, if fellow handicappers in the forum could please provide their thoughts.
    1. I use BRIS. From what I've read, horses with a +6, +10, etc Prime Power point advantage win at a very high percentage (of course many times at very low odds like 1-2). How to play? Many do not look vulnerable but still get beat.
    2. How to play small 5 and 6 horse fields where you land on the 8-5 and 2-1. Always separate using jockey/trainer (and other factors), or Dutch? Also, happens in 7+ horse fields, then Dutch?
  • RanchWest
    277
    1. I use BRIS. From what I've read, horses with a +6, +10, etc Prime Power point advantage win at a very high percentage (of course many times at very low odds like 1-2). How to play? Many do not look vulnerable but still get beat.
    2. How to play small 5 and 6 horse fields where you land on the 8-5 and 2-1. Always separate using jockey/trainer (and other factors), or Dutch? Also, happens in 7+ horse fields, then Dutch?
    Jim Pommier

    1. BRIS Prime Power is very strong for finding the best horses in the race. The key is that the best horse doesn't always win. We have to find vulnerable horses when they exist and recognize the real deal when it exists. The factors most people use for vulnerable are actually indicators of the best horse. So, the public stays on the best horse. Generally, the fastest path to a vulnerable horse is the pace scenario. Admittedly, sometimes I pick a little loosely, but I question horses too deep into their form cycle and horses that are not distance specialists. Sometimes those work for me, sometimes they don't.
    2. Most of the winners I see have good speed and/or pace figures unless the pace falls apart. The fact that there is a good jockey or trainer is just a natural correlation, but it isn't a mandatory thing. You'll usually get a better price if there's not a leading jock and/or trainer. I'm not good enough at dutching to address that.

    Maybe we can give this topic a thread of its own in a few days.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    1. I use BRIS. From what I've read, horses with a +6, +10, etc Prime Power point advantage win at a very high percentage (of course many times at very low odds like 1-2). How to play? Many do not look vulnerable but still get beat.
    Yes, 6 LENs wins a lot of races but are so over bet that removes any chance of making money.

    Interestingly, at about 10 lengths the win pct actually starts to got down.

    2. How to play small 5 and 6 horse fields where you land on the 8-5 and 2-1. Always separate using jockey/trainer (and other factors), or Dutch? Also, happens in 7+ horse fields, then Dutch?

    Those races become highly playable when there are THREE horses under 3/1 on the tote board.

    The real leverage point is in exactas.
    In the last study I did that included 3 horses under 3/1, the winning exactas when two of those horses ran 1-2 was almost 40% higher than when there were only 2 such horses.

    This is because nobody in their right mind would ever box 3 horses below 3/1.

    Just imagine... You have (say) 8/5, 2/1, 5/2 and it comes back $18.

    But there is a catch... You simply MUST HAVE a BET AGAINST HORSE.

    The video actually explains what I do. It works for me.
    Like a lot of things I do, I could easily be labeled a crackpot. LOL
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