• Tony Kofalt
    284


    Thank you for walking us through your process Lawrence. Very clever use of combining some software to get strong results. Please keep us updated.
  • Biniak
    48


    That is way cool. Please keep the updates coming. Good luck this weekend!
  • Lawrence
    15
    I will keep you posted.

    I'm always tinkering, but my plan is to get it 90% complete and then post some selections - with an explanation - to give more insight into my process.
  • Lawrence
    15


    I got the time decayed idea from how the RDSS (New Sartin Methodology folks at the Pace & Cap forum) compute their CSR - Composite Speed Rating... not to mention Benter. The CSR documentation is in the attached image. The CSR rating is powerful; my Hastings model shows that I can eliminate a contender that ranks 5th or higher in CSR. In terms of how I use the time decaying approach for class, I've time decayed (1) purse value, (2) odds in past races, and the (3) "race class" number - essentially the speed figure from the race winner - from Dave's "Sim Pace" Excel worksheet that was in the 123 System materials. I forget the exact combination and weight of factors in what I call my "Class TDx" object (I don't have my workbook on this computer).

    The exact combination isn't really the point. What I see as important is that it's a way of considering class that:
    • Other players don't use as it's unique to me
    • Doesn't involve the earnings box (I got this idea from an HTR newsletter; they're chock full of amazing handicapping insight - and model-based statistics - from the mind of Ken Massa)
    • Is proven to work based on the evidence of my model

    It's this contrarian approach that seems to provide the edge.
  • Dave Schwartz
    202
    Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery. :)
    I got them from Benter. ;)

    Here are the time decay factors in HSH.
    pt6jhmvn7z6aasmj.png

    Here are the Composite Factors.
    e4fbxtuskxucxkte.png

    Take a look at Time-Decay Stretch Run and the like.
  • RanchWest
    324
    I got the time decayed idea from how the RDSSLawrence

    Yes, Ted told me how to do the CSR, so I applied the logic to my BRIS file. I also did it with the 2f, 4f, 6f and LT pace figures. I see Dave has the time decay EP and LP... I would think those are very useful numbers. While a high LP number is not mandatory, a poor LP figure is a very suspect horse from what I have seen.
  • RanchWest
    324
    If you just watched R3 at BEL, it was easy to predict that heavily bet Tekila would fold like an ogi, based on the decayed LP figure.
  • Lawrence
    15
    Well, I've been experiencing some ups and downs as I played around with my Tom's UOL-inspired Excel workbook to play Hastings. As it stood as of a couple of days ago, I'd built two WIN bet objects to play - one for sprints and one for routes. (It took me some time to build up a database of at least 20 route races because HST runs only 2 days a week with 7 races per card). I reckon that, seeing as it's a bullring, the differences between the sprints - run around two tight turns - and routes - run around 3 tight turns - would be significant enough that a specialized approach for each distance structure is warranted.

    Once I created the objects (using the "How to Figure Out What Wins" method), I played around with them to see what might work for contender selection. Originally, I settled on a REYNOLDS 3 to choose my contenders. While that gave me only 3 or 4 contenders a race, it was tricky to discriminate between them and I was passing most races because I had too many contenders that constituted too much of the pool.

    I am using the concepts from Roger LeBlanc's book, "The Punter's Tale", to find false favourites and toss out some low-priced horses. The concepts in the book are sound - false faves identified with his methods lose on a very regular basis - but they don't pop up in races that often. So, I put my thinking cap back on.

    I reckoned that the good news is that my contender pool was very accurately chosen. I had 90% or so of the winners in my CONTs. Now, the fields at HST are small so this is no great shakes but...

    Lightning struck when I was thinking about how to capitalize on my good contender selection. Two ideas came to mind:

    1. Go one layer deeper with my Reynolds:. As per one of Dave's seminars, I decided to use my object to create REYNOLDS 4 numbers for low odds horses. This might help me toss some low odds duds.

    2. Use the aMLq process from the 123 System seminar: This should point to low odds horses that are likely to fail and those non-qualifying low-odds horses can serve as play against types.

    Well, lo and behold, now I'm finding more low odds horses to play against and this is allowing me to play more races because there's greater value in more of the races. I haven't tested this against live play yet - HST doesn't run again until Saturday - but I look forward to seeing if this revised approach will bear fruit.

    Here's a screenshot so you can see what I'm up to. This image show my "WIN Value Worksheet" for sprints. I have another for routes.

    Please note that, in the image, each of the contenders is noted as a "WIFE". This means that they meet the criteria for LeBlanc's "Mustachioed Wife" category. In this particular instance, it means that all of these horses have at least 2 losses at this distance structure and class level.

    Back to the coal face to do some more refining of my workbook. I've created a PLACE bet object for both sprints and routes to help with exacta play. I want to see how those did over the past 2 days of racing.

    Cheers,
    Lawrence

    iz3figqyeooxyl3s.png
  • Lawrence
    15
    While you guys are all playing Saratoga, I've got my eye on Hintofalimp at Podunk Downs over here in Vancouver, Canada...and here are my first public selections ever.

    I've handicapped the card of 7 races for Hastings on Saturday, 16 July 2022. Here are my selections accompanied by screenshots of my Excel workbook for the three races that I found some value in:

    HST 16 July 2022 - Race 1
    1 - Pretty Aria = $7 to WIN
    3 - Definite Pleasure = $3 to WIN
    vklrloddt6efkpqg.png

    HST 16 July 2022 - Race 5
    4 - Coulterberry = $10 to WIN
    9y8sysr096z9qtw4.png

    HST 16 July 2022 - Race 7
    1 - Koala = $4 to WIN
    4 - Lizzies Girl = $2 to WIN
    7 - Groovy Girl = $2 to WIN
    1czvk8qlyjmq97b7.png
  • RanchWest
    324
    Good luck, Lawrence!
  • Lawrence
    15
    My results for HST 16 July 2022:

    Race 1:
    1 - Pretty Aria = 1st (+$21)
    3 - Definite Pleasure = 5th (-$3)

    Race 5:
    4 - Coulterberry = 4th (-$10)

    Race 7:
    1 - Koala = 2nd (-$4)
    4 - Lizzies Girl = 4th (-$2)
    7 - Groovy Girl = 5th (-$2)

    Looks like I'm even on the day - $21 in winnings (it was a strong start!) and $21 in losses. So it goes.
  • Lawrence
    15
    Below you will find my selections for Hastings Racecourse on Sunday, 17 July 2022.

    NOTE: The "% value" indicates how playable the race is according to my handicapping; the greater the value percentage, the larger amount of the pool belongs to my non-contenders. Here goes:

    Race 1: 3% value = No Play

    Race 2: 2% value = No Play

    Race 3: 19% value = Marginal Plays
    • 2 - Smart Lad = $2 to WIN
    • 4 - Stay Fantastic = $2 to WIN
    • 7 - At Attention = $2 to WIN

    Race 4: 14% value = No Play

    Race 5: 24% value
    • 3 - My College Fund = $2 to WIN
    • 4 - Slew's Da Boss = $2 to WIN
    • 5 - Parker Point = $3 to WIN

    Race 6: 49% value = CHAOS! I'm taking a big swing b/c the two low-odds horses are aMLq FAILURES. These horses will win on occasion - about 15-20% of the time - but my records indicate they're worth playing against in the long run.
    • 5 - Reprimand = $2 to WIN
    • 6 - Klondike Gentleman = $2 to WIN
    • 7 - Sword Fighter = $2 to WIN
    • 8 - Martello = $2 to WIN
    • 10 - It's In Command = $2 to WIN
    • 11 - European = $2 to WIN

    Race 7: 14% value = No play
  • Lawrence
    15
    My results for HST on Sunday, 17 July 2022 are below. No chaotic black swan in the 6th, unfortunately.

    Race 3:
    • 2 - Smart Lad = (-$2)
    • 4 - Stay Fantastic = (-$2)
    • 7 - At Attention = +$6.80

    Race 5:
    • 3 - My College Fund = (-$2)
    • 4 - Slew's Da Boss = (-$2)
    • 5 - Parker Point = (-$3)
    Note: Non-contender wins the race

    Race 6:
    • 5 - Reprimand = (-$2)
    • 6 - Klondike Gentleman = (-$2)
    • 7 - Sword Fighter = (-$2)
    • 8 - Martello = (-$2)
    • 10 - It's In Command = (-$2)
    • 11 - European = (-$2)
    Note: The 8/5 favourite I had as a play against horse wins the race.

    Overall, I'm down $16.20 for the day. So it goes.
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