Comments

  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    Probably just got a bad trip :lol:
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Maybe we're getting lifetime by scraping PPs rather than data files. Not sure but I'll find out.
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    I mean, I get the Derby winner was 80/1 so a bunch of casual bettors are gonna see his 50/1 morning line and throw a few bucks down...but he's shorter odds than Simplification and Creative Minister. Nearly the same odds as Early Voting. This is insanity lol.
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    I'm so confused. Fenwick bet down to 7/1???
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Someone else set up the data feed. I'll ask and get back to you.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites

    My data comes from Brisnet but I'm pretty sure DRF and Equibase also have lifetime.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites

    Hmmm, I suppose you should stick to defining things the way that make sense to you. But I go lifetime because I think it's less discriminating. Let's say Horse A and Horse B both pop lifetime bests late in their 3-year old season. Horse A races monthly as a 4-year old and builds up to that same running line and triggers a DTOP b/c the last peak is outside 10 races. Horse B races every two months and builds up to the same running line but doesn't trigger a DTOP b/c he's still within 10 races of the last peak. Not sure these two hypothetical runners should be separated as inclusion/exclusion here.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites

    If you only had last 10, I might call it a "Cyclical DTOP" and study. I only know the concept applied to lifetime figs.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites

    Small sample but sounding like it could apply to your metrics pretty affectively!
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites

    If this is a concept you're going to play with, I'll also offer that the Top Final should be a certain amount better than the previous Lifetime Top. (So running barely better than ever before doesn't trigger it).

    Apply this scale to whatever figures you're using to match what Cary did:
    For 6F races, 3 lengths
    For 8F races, 4 lengths
    For 10F races, 5 lengths
    etc
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites

    No hard rule was given, just that the runner should be "in campaign."
    To me, that means 3rd or 4th start without 60 days rest depending on the runner.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites


    Double Pace Top - form cycle pattern from Cary Fotias. It's a running line that features the horse's fastest half mile split of career along with their fastest final figure of career. Often a bounce spot.
  • RS out of Preakness

    It's "Pace makes the race"...not "Pace makes it a fluke."
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites

    I fall into the category of handicappers that have an entire folder of Excel sheets they struggle to keep up on. I have the full list of candidates that qualified for the pattern but need to play major catch-up and put in all the final odds to filter it down to only favorites. After the Preakness, I'll get it done and holler back.
  • Is there anything New?
    I think the majority of missing pieces out there for handicapping data involve the actual betting. There's tons and tons of data on PICKING contenders but not all that much on BETTING contenders.

    If I could magically tell you the winner of a single race with 100% sureness and give you $100, how do you bet it?

    There's win, you can top an exacta or tri to all, you can double to all on either side, etc. I wonder how many handicappers actually possess the skill (or will) to actually analyze what the right decision is given this scenario.

    I couldn't even count the number of times I've heard people comment (especially myself included) that they had the horse...but they just didn't bet it right.
  • Paceline Selection Systems & Methods
    If I may, I'm going to play a little devil's advocate here for the sake of discussion and say when selecting a single representative paceline to predict today's outcome, This may give you the runner's "ability level"...but would seem to ignore the condition and form cycle pattern of the runner when that particular representative paceline was earned...which could have no relationship to the current condition and form cycle pattern...which greatly affects today's "ability level." Thanks guys.
  • Keeneland All-Turf P3 (4/10)
    Ha yeah I was 2 out of 3 also.

    Nice exacta in last to mention the 70/1 at least, although I fumbled the “him”…shoulda been “her”
  • Bet against spot plays?
    Attached, here's a "bad favorite" checklist I picked up somewhere that may be of interest.
    Attachment
    Bad favorites check list (1) (28K)
  • How to Handicap Sports?
    I'm just a casual sports bettor, pretty selective though (couple games per weekend). I have no statistics or tracking but I feel like I've done pretty decent with some of these go-to's you could consider.

    For favorites,
    1. Vegas knows what they're doing. Unranked teams favored over ranked teams are pretty much an automatic bet for me. And even not so much have to be ranked but think..."teams that should be perceived as inferior" being favored over "teams that should be perceived as superior."

    For dogs,
    1. Anytime a team gets the chance to rally around a new leader. Most often it's a back-up QB making his first start.

    2. Facing a team bouncing off a huge win. I can't even count the amount of times in any sport I've seen a team upset #1 in the country only to lose to an unranked the next game.

    Also, I'll add...
    If Team A beat Team B and Team B beat Team C...then Team A should beat Team C, right? Nope, doesn't work that way in horse racing, doesn't work that way in Sports, either.
    At the end of the day, sports are about match-ups in a way that horse racing can be (pace scenario, form cycle, trips, etc).
  • BRIS E1/E2/LP
    I understand the definitions BRIS gives that you posted. I'm not quite understanding their reasoning.

    They're saying variable distance is the reason you use variable lengths for speed figures and since they're measuring fixed distance for pace calls, they can now use fixed lengths.

    However, it's not directly the distance that is the reason for variable length on speed figures, it's the variable velocity caused by the distance.

    It's fine when they say 44 flat could be a 90 figure whether it's a 5F dirt sprint or 1m turf route...but I'm unsure if it's fair to say beaten lengths would be the same all across that scale.

    Wouldn't the measured lengths differ if Horse A at a 90 wanted to "even up" on Horse B at a 92 versus Horse C at a 60 wanting to catch Horse D at 62?