Well, my BRIS data comes in correct as "all weather" as long as the race was originally scheduled for that. The issue is that off-the-turf races come in as dirt and was curious if anyone else noticed this.

With $1.4 million wagered, updated BEL Stakes odds.
1 We the People 6-1
2 Skippylongstocking 9-1
3 Nest 9-2
4 Rich Strike 7-2
5 Creative Minister 7-1
6 Mo Donegal 5-2
7 Golden Glider 13-1
8 Barber Road 8-1

Here's what I came up with
https://predicteform.com/Blog

A lot of missing top 3 YOs but really a pretty good field. Field is absolutely loaded with late speed and you've got a potential pacesetter that is unproven outside easy trips and may not have to prove otherwise here. Interesting race.

Congrats, go get some winners :fire:

Probably just got a bad trip :lol:

Maybe we're getting lifetime by scraping PPs rather than data files. Not sure but I'll find out.

I mean, I get the Derby winner was 80/1 so a bunch of casual bettors are gonna see his 50/1 morning line and throw a few bucks down...but he's shorter odds than Simplification and Creative Minister. Nearly the same odds as Early Voting. This is insanity lol.

I'm so confused. Fenwick bet down to 7/1???

Someone else set up the data feed. I'll ask and get back to you.

My data comes from Brisnet but I'm pretty sure DRF and Equibase also have lifetime.

Hmmm, I suppose you should stick to defining things the way that make sense to you. But I go lifetime because I think it's less discriminating. Let's say Horse A and Horse B both pop lifetime bests late in their 3-year old season. Horse A races monthly as a 4-year old and builds up to that same running line and triggers a DTOP b/c the last peak is outside 10 races. Horse B races every two months and builds up to the same running line but doesn't trigger a DTOP b/c he's still within 10 races of the last peak. Not sure these two hypothetical runners should be separated as inclusion/exclusion here.

If you only had last 10, I might call it a "Cyclical DTOP" and study. I only know the concept applied to lifetime figs.

Small sample but sounding like it could apply to your metrics pretty affectively!

If this is a concept you're going to play with, I'll also offer that the Top Final should be a certain amount better than the previous Lifetime Top. (So running barely better than ever before doesn't trigger it).

Apply this scale to whatever figures you're using to match what Cary did:
For 6F races, 3 lengths
For 8F races, 4 lengths
For 10F races, 5 lengths
etc

No hard rule was given, just that the runner should be "in campaign."
To me, that means 3rd or 4th start without 60 days rest depending on the runner.

Double Pace Top - form cycle pattern from Cary Fotias. It's a running line that features the horse's fastest half mile split of career along with their fastest final figure of career. Often a bounce spot.

It's "Pace makes the race"...not "Pace makes it a fluke."

I fall into the category of handicappers that have an entire folder of Excel sheets they struggle to keep up on. I have the full list of candidates that qualified for the pattern but need to play major catch-up and put in all the final odds to filter it down to only favorites. After the Preakness, I'll get it done and holler back.

I think the majority of missing pieces out there for handicapping data involve the actual betting. There's tons and tons of data on PICKING contenders but not all that much on BETTING contenders.

If I could magically tell you the winner of a single race with 100% sureness and give you $100, how do you bet it?

There's win, you can top an exacta or tri to all, you can double to all on either side, etc. I wonder how many handicappers actually possess the skill (or will) to actually analyze what the right decision is given this scenario.

I couldn't even count the number of times I've heard people comment (especially myself included) that they had the horse...but they just didn't bet it right.