• Jim Pommier
    49
    Does anyone place/show wager? I've been playing around with it and not sure if it can be profitable or not (+ROI). Play only selected races. Horses that rate "very high" are place bets. Horses that rate simply "high" are show bets. Races where the top horse has a mediocre rating, then those races are tossed-- no bet. Races with several first-time starters-- no bet. Narrow it down to 4-5 wagers per racing card. Then take it a step further and maybe add some kind of unit waging? For example, some place contenders qualify for 2 units where others are only 1 unit. The same for show contenders. Use a simple rating system around speed, pace, trainer, etc. I'm mostly landing on the favorite or 2nd favorite. Occasionally a higher odds horse.
    Thanks-- Jim
  • RanchWest
    503
    For me, I prefer a wager that is solid but with a higher return. I had Very Subtle when Groovy had a million plus to show and finished off the board.
  • RanchWest
    503
    Jim, are you making a profit on your place and show wagers?
  • Jim Pommier
    49
    No overall profit. But feel I'm pretty close. Pick a lot of place/show winners, but it's the string of 2-3 losers that's an issue. It's difficult to catch back to positive when the next payouts are so low. Sunday, I experimented with a progressive type of wagering and did very well. But, the last few days, not so good. That's why I was curious of some kind of unit wagering.
    Also, having to help out a lot with my family, I cannot sit and play live all day. Some days have to place wagers and run, etc. Or I'm live and then have to pick up and leave. Not ideal. No wagering yesterday. I think I may have to table until things settle down and I can work on it and keep better record keeping. I'll post again as I move forward.
  • Dave Schwartz
    267


    My belief would be that you need to find a BALO.
    (Bet Against Low Odds horse)

    Not to bet against but to actually bet!

    I think that if you search for BALO and LEVERAGE POINT you will find some explanations of how and why.

    Short version: BALOs win way LESS often than they should but run 2nd way MORE often than they should.
  • Conley
    424
    Here is my betting strategy

    WPS
    Really like a horse with a high% of hitting: Win Bet
    Like a horse but need back up in case it does not win: Win/Place/Show
    10-1+ Longshot: Win/Place
    Like 2 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
    Like 3 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets

    For the Dutch Win Bets I try first to narrow it down to 1 horse but if it is too close to call then I would head on over to Full Card Reports dutching calculator and enter in the info to get the suggested wagering amounts

    I do play Exactas and Superfectas too nothing else like Trifectas or Daily Doubles or Pick 3/4/5/6's unless I feel fully confident in those
  • Dave Schwartz
    267
    WPS
    Really like a horse with a high% of hitting: Win Bet
    Like a horse but need back up in case it does not win: Win/Place/Show
    10-1+ Longshot: Win/Place
    Like 2 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
    Like 3 horses to win here: Dutch Win Bets
    Conley

    What odds do you use to Dutch?
  • Conley
    424
    What odds do you use to Dutch?Dave Schwartz

    I usually like to wait for overlays on the horses I like then plug in the info into this calculator
    Use morning line in the calculator though not live odds
    https://web.archive.org/web/20191031132347/http://www.fullcardreports.com/CAP/dutching_calculator.asp

    Hope that makes sense I couldn't find the link but found it now
  • Dave Schwartz
    267
    Hope that makes sense I couldn't find the link but found it nowConley

    Does make sense.
    Do you find that you are consistently betting the horses in the correct proportions or are you betting less on the winners than you should?
  • Conley
    424
    Do you find that you are consistently betting the horses in the correct proportions or are you betting less on the winners than you should?Dave Schwartz

    Sorry I’m being dumb on this but can you explain this more so I can fully understand thanks.
  • Dave Schwartz
    267
    When you Dutch 2 (or more) horses, the goal is to make the same return no matter which horse wins.

    In my experience, because of late odds changes - which shift the ultimate winner's odds down - the end result is too much on the loser and too little on the winner.
  • Conley
    424
    When you Dutch 2 (or more) horses, the goal is to make the same return no matter which horse wins.

    In my experience, because of late odds changes - which shift the ultimate winner's odds down - the end result is too much on the loser and too little on the winner.
    Dave Schwartz

    I get it now my apologies for not fully understanding now thank you

    Now to answer your question I think I am betting the horses in the correct proportions but rarely do I bet 2 or 3 horses to win
  • RanchWest
    503
    Now to answer your question I think I am betting the horses in the correct proportions but rarely do I bet 2 or 3 horses to winConley

    I remember one day at the track I told a guy I was going to bet two horses to win. He laughed and told me you can't make money betting two horses to win. I laughed and told him that last race I bet three horses and hit a $51 horse.

    It isn't where you start... it is where you end up.
  • Conley
    424
    I remember one day at the track I told a guy I was going to bet two horses to win. He laughed and told me you can't make money betting two horses to win. I laughed and told him that last race I bet three horses and hit a $51 horse.

    It isn't where you start... it is where you end up.
    RanchWest

    There are certain situations like what I was saying above where you can bet 2-3 horses and the situation above seems like a valid reasoning of when you can bet that or not
  • Jim Pommier
    49
    Well, the Place / Show wagering crashed. Or at least it's not for me. The payouts were too small using my handicapping. Also, even a small 2-3 run out is difficult to make back up. Seems you need to be even more restrictive in your selections than I was and also be able to pick a few medium prices. Not easy. It's fun to do and you cash a lot of tickets, but it's just not profitable. At least not for me. Now on to something else.
  • Tony Kofalt
    393
    Hi Jim, thanks for the feedback. I was never able to try place/show betting. It just didn't seem to fit my personality. But let me say this. Regardless of your handicapping or wagering methodology you are going to encounter bad streaks. I am so fortunate to do this professionally and I still have to fight through droughts and losing streaks.
    My point is try to develop a methodology that 'feels' good to you. Then don't be too quick to abandon it. Make small wagers, if any, and consider tweaks you could make. The friends I have in this industry all struggle through some lean weeks and months.
  • Dave Schwartz
    267
    My point is try to develop a methodology that 'feels' good to you. Then don't be too quick to abandon it.Tony Kofalt

    Wonderful advice. :clap: :up:
    It has to fit your style.

    IMHO, one of the reasons you've been able to support yourself as a true professional for the almost 3 decades that I've known you is that you always wear a reality hat.
  • RanchWest
    503
    From the people I have encountered, recreational handicappers frequently look to high percentage plays for their enjoyment. Professionals look for profit. And there are a lot of folks in between.
  • Thomas Keane
    2
    I'm starting to follow horseracing again. I had one spot play method that I used at lower level tracks (CharlesTown, Delta Downs, and Penn) playing only late run closers as defined by James Quinn for sprints and routes. I would look at the horses last 8 races and see how many times it finished in the money while more than 2 3/4 lengths in a sprint, 3 3/4 lengths at 8F, and 4 3/4 lengths at 8.5F and 9F at the second call. If the horse finished in the money at least 4 of the last 8 races I would throw a couple bucks on the horse to place and show. Never tracked the results but remember having some good results with longer odds horses. Will start to chart going forward and see what the results yield.
  • Dustin Korth
    52
    I think there are very very few instances where a Place bet is a good bet.

    Your payout is directly correlated to the other finisher. Since favorites win the most, 2nd favs win the 2nd most, and so on...you are always putting yourself most likely live to the worst payout on your opinion, 2nd most likely to the 2nd worse, and so on. Now, let's say you hate the favorite though?...well in that case you are much more likely to have found an overlay in the Win Pool than you are simply having the previously mentioned Place likelihoods upgraded one spot.

    Logically, place bets just don't make sense to ever make outside a few exceptions where you're identifying weaknesses in the market.
  • Tom
    89
    Mark Cramer once wrote that when testing angles, he wouls look for twice as many place horses as winners to validate his samples.

    Soiunded good to me, I looked at my records and found I hit twice a many places as wins,
    So i afdopted the strategy of betting 1 unit win/3 units on any selections going off at 9-2 or higher.

    Been very happy with it for years now
  • Tony Kofalt
    393


    Tom, I've read some of Mark Cramers work and always felt he offered good logical opinions. I don't recall this topic but I find it interesting to learn. Thanks for sharing it with us!!
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