• RanchWest
    457
    Have you ever considered handicapping through the lens of concepts such as antivolatility, game theory, artificial intelligence, etc.?
  • Tony Kofalt
    322
    Yes. I am interested to see what AI can add to handicapping. In the 90's I was pleasantly surprised to see the results Dave's Neuro Nets yielded in ThoroBrain. Unfortunately, the product line moved in a different direction. I'd love to have another opportunity to see what AI can add to our handicapping tools
  • Dave Schwartz
    256
    ThoroBrain is coming back in this new software.

    You and I will be discussing that on Thursday.
  • RanchWest
    457


    Very good! And I agree.

    But I have also been looking recently at a much different approach... antivolatiity. Looking at what is not predictable and considering how we might use those possibilities. Handicapping always has risks and rewards.
  • RanchWest
    457


    An example:

    Handicapping one leg of a P4. 7 horses. 1 Need-to-lead with 8 Quirin speed points. We determine this horse is the likely winner, but our stats say it is not quite good enough to be a single. We need one more horse. Of the other 6 horses, three have 3 Q points and three have no Q points. Our normal strategy says that in this circumstance, we assume the horses with limited speed will get run off their feet and we should play one of the zero point horses. That may or may not be a valid strategy, but it is just an assumption for this example.

    But what if something unpredictable happens? The NTL horse doesn't get out of the gate or stumbles or the jockey falls off. Now the rest of our premise falls apart. The horses with 3 Q points are now the front runners and one of them will likely win. Again, this is an assumption for the example.

    So, what should our strategy be? Where do we assign our risk avoidance? Do we select a 3-point horse or a 0-point horse or do we add a third selection, escalating the cost of our ticket?

    The idea here is to offer up another way of looking at wagering. Just another thought process.

    I got into this thought process in two ways. Dave has a product on what wins in winter. That doesn't really have anything to do with this antivolatility, but I thought the two play well together. The other was watching some antivolatility videos on YouTube.
  • William Zayonce
    38
    @RanchWest
    It's exciting to see you delving into the realm of "What If". The realm of the "possible" rather than the "probable". It seems that our imagination is the one factor that cannot be quantified..
  • RanchWest
    457
    It's exciting to see you delving into the realm of "What If". The realm of the "possible" rather than the "probable". It seems that our imagination is the one factor that cannot be quantified..William Zayonce

    Thanks. I've been doing horse racing what if's since I first read Quirin. I wrote my first handicapping computer program in 1982. If I can stimulate others to ask "what if", I consider that a good thing.
  • Dave Schwartz
    256
    The All Button

    A viable idea!

    This caused me to add a handful of columns to the AI engine in the new software: the All Button.
  • Tom
    82
    So a ?

    What is the address for the store?
    I can't find a link anywhere.
  • Tom
    82
    D'oh!
    I was using pacemakestherace.STORE.com./
    My Dog, I hope I'm not getting dyslexia!

    Thanks.
  • Dave Schwartz
    256
    My Dog, I hope I'm not getting dyslexia!Tom

    LOL
  • RanchWest
    457
    My Dog, I hope I'm not getting dyslexia!Tom
    Are you tishing me?
  • Conley
    406
    Yes always I have thought to get AI to make me rich lol

    But in all seriousness, I think that AI will most definitely help anyone in this game and there are probably a lot of ways that AI can be used to handicap and find the winners

    AI can also be used to make new handicapping products for the public which I would find fascinating for the possibilities that this can have whether that be past performances or selections etc

    See what the future of AI has in store for us!
  • Tony Kofalt
    322

    Hi Conley-
    In ThoroBrain I found the AI (neural nets) most helpful in separating contenders. The user built the information the neural nets processed via pace line selections which included paceline 'smoothing'. The neural nets did an outstanding job of evaluating the data and presenting the probabilities for each contender.
    There were other AI products on the market at that time. I can't recall the names of the products but they all seemed to fade away.
  • Conley
    406
    That’s pretty sweet actually how ThoroBrain did such a thing

    Thanks Tony
  • RanchWest
    457
    I just watched a video on YouTube that included a part on how Bill Benter hired a person to watch race videos where horses unexpectedly lost so he could figure on how to reduce risk... antifragility, though no reference is made to that term. The video is called How This Man Profited $1 Billion Betting on Hong Kong Horse Races by Economics Explained.
bold
italic
underline
strike
code
quote
ulist
image
url
mention
reveal
youtube
tweet
Add a Comment

Please register to see more

Forum Members always see the latest updates and news first. Sign up today.