• Tony Kofalt
    292
    Unlike most big racing days I had a chance to get an advanced peak at the Belmont Stakes. Admittedly with more homework to do, We The People appears to be a standout to me. I was a little disappointed with the 2-1 ML as I felt that Mo Donegal would be the favorite.
    At this point I leaning to singling We The People in all tickets. A lot can change in 5 days. Let's keep each other updated on our Belmont thoughts
  • Conley
    402
    The 154th Running of The Belmont Stakes field is set:
    Attachment
    2022_Belmont_Stakes_field_615x400_2 (48K)
  • Conley
    402
    I thought that posts 1-6 horses were drawn well but don't disown posts 7-8 as the winning posts last 5 years have been 2 7 8 1 2

    We The People has a excellent rail position and even Rich Strike post 4 is solid

    Will post rest of what I like later in the week (Friday evening + Saturday morning)
  • Dustin Korth
    49
    A lot of missing top 3 YOs but really a pretty good field. Field is absolutely loaded with late speed and you've got a potential pacesetter that is unproven outside easy trips and may not have to prove otherwise here. Interesting race.
  • Tony Kofalt
    292

    At first blush, it appears that We The People may have another comfortable trip. I have some work to do on the race but I don't see a reason that I will be changing my mind
  • Jim Pommier
    29
    I like Mo Donegal. Was 10 wide in the Derby. Will get a better trip. WTP is the only +5 Q (E6), but doesn't have extreme E1/E2 pace numbers. Will he bounce off his ATH speed figure? Certainly can get the lead. But will there be any pace pressure? I think Mo will be a little closer to the pace. Always swings wide, but won't have to go 10 wide. Has solid pace and speed numbers versus the field, and I'm looking for him to improve off the Derby effort.
  • Tony Kofalt
    292
    Can't disagree about Mo. Certainly had excuses in derby. His win 2 back was fantastic. I'd love to play against WTP at 2-1 but I can't construct a scenario where he will be easy to catch. Being a horizontal player, there are a couple of other strong favs in the mandatory payout P5 so I have to beat one or two of them. I do now imagine that I will be using a small spread in the Belmont.
  • Jim Pommier
    29
    I plan on doing the same-- P5. R8 I'll try to beat Arrest Me Red. R10 try and beat Gufo. I plan to use both on my ticket but go 5 to 6 deep with other contenders.
  • Jack Price
    22
    I’ve had “private messages” requesting more information about the “Art verse Science” pdf I shared a few months back…. For some reason, I’m unable to load an attachment on a PM so I thought I’d share a summary file for the Belmont Stakes in this thread (including answers to questions received).

    Generally, if I'm playing "verticals", I'm looking to bet the Level 1 races only…. I use the statistical data as a “pre-handicapping”, starting point only and then, I do a deeper dive using my handicapping experience (the “art”) based on any race of interest.

    The “will advise” reference refers to flagging non-contenders giving a second look to any horse with a “Betting Line” (BL) rank of <=5 and BL Odds <=25.

    I’ve attached a larger sample of my research for any aspirations you may have to doing something similar…. Some of it is a little outdated; but, you’ll get the general idea.

    Best of luck with your future endeavors!

    Jack
    Attachments
    Worksheet_Master_BelmontStakes_06.11.22 (380K)
    MyHandicapping_ARTverseSCIENCE_v03 (1M)
  • RanchWest
    411
    Thanks, Jack. I will look this over later today, as I am sure many others will. I REALLY enjoy insights into how others handicap. I've been at this a long time, but I never feel being above considering the experience of others.
  • Atakante
    2
    A lot to digest here. I have been a Thorograph sheets user for a number of years and it seems they really like Nest in this race drawing a line on her Oaks performance and emphasizing she'll have some weight advantage against the boys. Plus the Curlin factor = bred for the distance. Not to be overlooked...probably the odds will have shortened when the race is off.
  • Ray Wallin
    16
    I love the analysis from both @Dustin Korth and @Jack Price

    I wish I had the time this week to look at the race but a long week of work, prepping to present at a conference next week, and my last hurrah coaching kid's sports (rugby!) started up this week.

    At a quick glance I to like Mo Donegal and Creative Minister, but do see the opportunity for WTP to get loose and not look back. Should be a fun race to watch this year!
  • Biniak
    54
    Thank you Jack!
  • RanchWest
    411


    Very impressive. I think I am not as advanced as you on evaluating the level of races. i probably need to focus more in that regard.
  • Tony Kofalt
    292
    After reviewing the early odds line for the Belmont I decided to follow my first thoughts on the race and make WTP a single on my horizontal wagers. While it is the Belmont Stakes it is just another horse race and just another bet.
  • Jim Pommier
    29
    I wish I could find it again, but someone posted odds based on yesterday's double with the Belmont. Mo was 2-1 and WTP was 2.9-1. The Derby winner Rich was about 6/7-1. So looks like your odds could be a little better than 2-1 on WTP.
  • Conley
    402
    :6: Mo Donegal 5/2

    :2: Skippylongstocking 20-1

    :4: Rich Strike 7/2

    :1: We the People 2-1

    I just hope 'Donegal can get a good trip to take it all plus I really want to see Skippylongstocking get a top 3 finish I included the Derby winner (Rich Strike) and Peter Pan winner (We the People) underneath in my exotic tickets! Good luck to everyone playing this year's Belmont Stakes!
  • Tom
    69
    Key fctor may well the infamous Bel rail bias, which looked strong yesterday.
    Maybe NYRA should move the temporary turf rail to the main track.....


    THANK YOU Jack, for sharing.
  • Dustin Korth
    49
    With $1.4 million wagered, updated BEL Stakes odds.
    1 We the People 6-1
    2 Skippylongstocking 9-1
    3 Nest 9-2
    4 Rich Strike 7-2
    5 Creative Minister 7-1
    6 Mo Donegal 5-2
    7 Golden Glider 13-1
    8 Barber Road 8-1
  • RanchWest
    411
    I look for Mo Donegal to be handy through the first six furlongs and close the deal. Less traffic should benefit him.

    Creative Minister and SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING will provide enough pace for Rich Strike to give a run. He looked extremely fit in the Derby and had a bullet work last. I think he'll make a serious effort. The Belmont is usually not kind to closers, but a fit horse is a fit horse.

    My program's odds line:

    1: 2.7
    2: 4.0
    3: 6.4
    4: 21.8
    5: 17.1
    6: 1.9
    7: 100
    8: 16.1
  • RanchWest
    411
    Mo Donegal ran his race. Nice ride from Irad. Nest ran well... nice horse. The uncoupled entry ran 1-2.
  • Atakante
    2
    Nest had her troubles but what a filly...great effort!
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