• RanchWest
    277
    If you've ever worked on spot plays, you probably know that some just don't work out as well as you hoped. Have you ever looked at those as bet against spot plays?

    It's a concept I worked on a little a long time ago. But at the time I was looking for simple absolute toss outs. Now, I am thinking in terms of vulnerable favorites. Anyone ever work on this type angle?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    I've done quite a bit of work on negative spots against low-odds horses, with quite a bit of success.

    In this age - where the whales dominate our game - these NegSpots have become antithetical in nature.

    Example: (Weekdays only) top jockey + top trainer + low odds = play against.

    But it isn't because they don't win races. They win a carload of them. They just lose so much money that it creates a highly playable race.
  • RanchWest
    277
    But it isn't because they don't win races. They win a carload of them. They just lose so much money that it creates a highly playable race.Dave Schwartz

    Yes, I have one going right now that has hit 38.9% and still losing 17%. And, that wasn't even an intentional play against! I look forward to getting into the intentional ones!
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Losing 17% is just not strong enough.

    The bidding starts at -35%.
    But it won't be a single factor that produces that. It would be a combination of factors.
  • RanchWest
    277
    Yes, my point was that I got half-way there unintentionally. lol
  • RanchWest
    277
    I was also pointing out that hitting a high percentage does not ensure a profit.

    I do have a spot play that has hit 9 of 45 (20%) and returning only 39 cents on the dollar.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    I do have a spot play that has hit 9 of 45 (20%) and returning only 39 cents on the dollar.RanchWest

    Ironically, THAT is what I generally look for in a play-against horse: the overwhelmingly obvious.
  • Colty
    3
    Loving this trhead.

    @RanchWest Keep doing what you're doing and keep telling us about it.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Dave, Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour?
  • RanchWest
    277
    Dave, Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour?Tony Kofalt

    I don't know anything about Pickmaster, but, as Dave said, it takes a lot of factors to have consistent eliminations or inclusions. And, sometimes I use composite data.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Have you tried searching for these scenarios through Pickmaster? If so, do you believe it would be a worthwhile endeavour?Tony Kofalt

    Yes, that is one of the tools.
    We also have one called the OBJECT MASTER that allows you to turn on as many as 300 factors and optimize and object using a pretty cool approach.

    Imagine 300^4 = 8.1 billion permutations - searching for the best object for (say) $net in the #1 rank. You can run something like that against 20,000 races in about 3 hours.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    I don't know anything about Pickmaster, but, as Dave said, it takes a lot of factors to have consistent eliminations or inclusions. And, sometimes I use composite data.RanchWest

    Actually, ultimately, it boils down to a few meaningful objects with the right application.

    Still the game isn't easy.
  • RanchWest
    277
    I'd say that one of my typical spot plays would have about 7 factors.
  • Dustin Korth
    43
    Attached, here's a "bad favorite" checklist I picked up somewhere that may be of interest.
    Attachment
    Bad favorites check list (1) (28K)
  • Tom
    48
    Finally, there is a huge difference between a good horse and a good bet.

    That says more than many handicapping books!
    Thanks for the list.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    That was from Fraser Rawlinson.

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