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RanchWest
503Seems to me that most races are won on three factors:
The pace setup
Speed Ratings
The fit and ready horse
That third one seems to be more art than science for the most part. Or maybe the science is just buried a little deeper.
One thing I have inadequate certainty about is form cycles. It SEEMS to me that a lot of horses win 2nd or 3rd off the layoff. Nowadays, some trainers win first off. But what else can I glean from form cycles? I've been doing some rudimentary looks at spacing between races. I've come up with median days between races. My hope here is to put more acceptance into horses that don't have frequent layoffs or wide spacings between races because they may have long-term infirmities. It's obviously just an assumption, but I think it might be helpful, especially for spotplays. Any thoughts on this?
Any other thoughts on looking for the fit and ready horse? -
Tony Kofalt
403This is a very interesting topic to me. I attempt to identify this type of horse (fit and ready) by assigning a projected fig to each horse during my handicapping process. I can then compare this projected fig to each horse's prior races to determine if they are improving or declining. One of my house rules in projecting figs is to assume that all horses will either improve or decline from their last effort. This process is a bit 'artsy' but makes fit and ready horses easier to identify.
Factors taken into consideration in the projection process are
- Prior speed figures
- Projected and past pace setup
- From cycle
- Trainer, jockey, medication and equipment changes
- Competitive class levels
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RanchWest
503Very interesting, Tony.
Is this an art projection or is there a mechanical element to it?
One thing I've come to is to look at the same basic concept in multiple ways, looking for phoney numbers. Like speed. I have a lot of different speed numbers. And pace... lots of different ways of looking at pace. Same for class. And form. Looking for weakness or superiority. And, I have my program select my pace lines. -
Dave Schwartz
415 -
RanchWest
503"HOW TO SELECT PACE L;INES" would make for a great topic.
Would like to see someone else post it. — Dave Schwartz
Yeah, mine is very complex. -
Dave Schwartz
415
Well, let's get somebody else to start the thread and then we can tell them what we do.
Of course, I don't CURRENTLY use it because I don't "select pacelines," but my system is built into HSH where anyone can see it.
(HSH has a programmable paceline selection mechanism. Well, it has a couple of dozen, actually, and the users can create their own.) -
Tony Kofalt
403
Ranch, I'm gonna call it more artful than mechanical. While a similar group of factors are considered there are no 'rules'. For example, if a horse was recently competitive at a level higher than today is that a positive or a negative when handicapping this race? The answer may differ if we are evaluating a young 3yo versus a battle scarred 9yo. I've tried hard not to box myself into a set of rules.
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