• Dave Schwartz
    364
    There's quite a bit of conversation going on over at PaceAdvantage about Whales.

    Thread: Elite Turf Club

    Here's one about manually creating a BALO.
    Creating a "Bad Favorite" Play

    Since Whales are such an important part of our game, I thought you guys might want to discuss this stuff here. If you have questions or opinions, please feel free to post them here.
  • Jim Pommier
    81
    Yes, I've been watching the conversations on PA.
    1. The business model essentially says, "If you're making money flat, you aren't betting enough and should bet more." The target is to lose about 3.5% per wagered dollar.
    So the Elite Turf Club and the other whales don't really make a profit on wagers, rather their income is generated through rebates? Someone commented "if they have a positive ROI, that's bonus money." So there is no positive ROI, rather they wager large sums of money, and pay the salaries and bills just from rebates?
  • Jim Pommier
    81
    2. Creating bad favorites.

    a. Somewhere you've got your old copy of HSH and some data.
    b. Using Filters and the PickList Manager, you can isolate on a subset of favs.
    c. Then you can use the ObjectMaster (OBM) to build objects that point to losing favs among those isolated on.

    See if I have this right. The deT is using AI to start-- determine the Best Horse(s). Then to determine if the Best Horse is a BALO or not we're using AI's four (4) Green Pace Objects. So at this stage in the process deT is using "pace" versus other factors? So is the deT different than what HSH was doing above?
  • Dave Schwartz
    364
    See if I have this right. The deT is using AI to start-- determine the Best Horse(s). Then to determine if the Best Horse is a BALO or not we're using AI's four (4) Green Pace Objects. So at this stage in the process deT is using "pace" versus other factors? So is the deT different than what HSH was doing above?Jim Pommier

    That answer was meant for Saratoga, who does not have anything within several magnitudes of DET to answer his questions.

    Please forgive if it sounds like I am nitpicking.
    You might have the meaning right, but I need to be sure, lest you or others are confused by my lack of a straightforward answer.

    1) The BALO flip tells you when there is a... well, a BALO or not.
    2) The AI Best Horse flip gives you HIT RATES and/or VALUE.
    3) However, the AI Best Horse also serves a distinct purpose within the BALO, but only as it pertains to the BALO candidates.

    The BALO PROCESS includes:
    1. AI LINE Magnitude=1 to select the BALO Candidates.
    2. Then, the AI BH Mag is used to test the BALO Candidates.
    3. Finally, the 4 Pace Objects are also used to test the BALO Candidates.
    (As we've discussed, there are some rule changes for E and EP objects on turf.)

    y6ddwf9fq6l9si1o.png



    _______________________
    Has this response improved your knowledge?
    (Or possibly made it worse?)
  • Jim Pommier
    81
    Yes, this really helps. Your BALO Process write-up, the 1., 2., 3 puts into words what I was trying to get to.
    Last, as it pertains to 3 below and the 4 Pace Objects. Why use Pace to test, and why not Speed Figures?
    3. Finally, the 4 Pace Objects are also used to test the BALO Candidates.
  • Dave Schwartz
    364
    Last, as it pertains to 3 below and the 4 Pace Objects. Why use Pace to test, and why not Speed Figures?Jim Pommier

    1. Speed Ratings simply are not even remotely close to being as good as the AI Pace Objects.
    2. NHT - NOBODY HAS THIS - (but everybody has speed ratings).
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