• Jim Pommier
    49
    Hello Dave. I was checking to see how it was going with the new artificial intelligence software. Hoping all is going well with the project. I was wondering if you can provide any updates. Thanks.
  • Dave Schwartz
    262
    I'm really doing well with it.
    Hope to start demos by the end of the month.
  • Jim Pommier
    49
    Sounds good. Thanks for the update.
  • Dave Schwartz
    262
    I just finished the most important section in the entire program.

    This is where the user gets to enter THEIR handicapping for each horse.

    DeTERMINATOR is designed to be an INTERACTIVE ADVISOR in the handicapping process. That means you must be able to enter your own opinions, compare them to the AI, and even COLLABORATE with the AI.

    Well, maybe "finished" is the wrong word because I will be writing collaboration functions for several more days.

    But getting the data in was really a big deal.

    Think of it this way... Calculations depend upon probabilities. But the only handicappers I know of who actually work with probabilities are those using a very rigid tool that says, "Horse #1 is 27%."

    Get this...
    Imagine you have an 8-horse field.
    You have strong opinions about the 1,2 and 3 so you use the ODDS column:
    1: 2.0/1
    2: 3.0 /1
    3: 2.5/1

    You think the 4 & 5 are like 4th choices, so you use the CHOICE column.
    4: 4
    5: 4
    (Note: If you entered actual odds for a horse, it will not use the CHOICE column. Instead, it locks your odds in.)

    You think everyone else is just a crazy longshot, so you leave the 6,7,8 blank. The engine will take care of those.

    That's how you get your picks in.
    Then the engine converts the ODDS and CHOICES to percentages.

    Then the fun starts.

    BTW, CHOICES column goes from 1 to 5, but you can also enter an "8."
    if you enter an "8" in the CHOICE it has the AI generate the percentage for that horse based upon what the public opinion SHOULD BE based upon the training process.

    Remember that any horse you enter odds for will never change. Only the others will change - based upon the strengths you entered.

    There are more tools.
  • Jim Pommier
    49
    Interesting, not what I had pictured. Where do the odds or actual odds come from? Is it from the software, live odds or what I think the odds should or will be? Or any of these?
    It looks like I could use only the Choice column if I wanted. For example, the 1 and 2 are my contenders to win. 3 and 4 could possibly place. 5 and 6 maybe 3rd and 4th. 7 and 8 are longshots. Something like the following:
    1: 1
    2: 1
    3: 2
    4: 2
    5: 3
    6: 4
    7: 8 (or blank)
    8: 8 (or blank)
  • Dave Schwartz
    262


    All of that makes logical sense.

    However, the ALL CH choice should really have a TOP HORSE with your odds. (Odds meaning an easy way to enter "hit rate.")

    <This screen is still evolving a bit.>
    o87ollzoo44ckfx8.png

    About this screen...
    HEADINGS OF SECTIONS
    ODDS
    There are currently 3 sources.
    1) Tote Board - (Could be scraped or manually entered)
    2) AdjML - Adjusted Morning Line (Morning Line adjusted to the right Booking Percents for this track.
    3) AI - This was generated by the AI.
    note: Everything green was generated by the AI.

    DATA ENTRY
    This is where you enter your opinion of the horses chances.
    I set 3 horses to have odds (probs) - #2, #7, #3
    The method of my entry was a straight calculation of Pct=1/(odds+1). Doesn't have to be that way.

    Look at #1 - Master of None.
    Think of a "3" under "choice" as "should run like a 3rd choice in this race."

    The AI has a hand it modifying that "In this Race" part.

    See the #8 in the CH column?
    That means, "Please use the AI to tell me what this horse's percent should be."
    Notice it is green indicating the AI's involvement..


    MY HANDICAPPING
    This section is the MATHEMATICAL RESULT of taking the calculating the DATA ENTRY section by using the "CALC" button.


    RPTS HCP
    She the "Show Which Method" at the top?

    By clicking "Rep" it populated that section with the output of REPORTS THAT YOU CREATED and turned on for handicapping.

    (Section should really be called "Which Method")
    Depending upon WHICH METHOD is chosen, that title will change to AI or one of the Agents.
  • Dave Schwartz
    262
    What makes this section of the program so neat is that there are so many ways to get OPINIONS & ADVICE from the AI.

    For example, something that gets displayed this week is THE CHAOS METER, which PREDICTS the CHANCES that the race will be CHAOTIC.

    This is NOT based upon things like field size, how many FTS, etc. In other words, it is not based upon "THERE'S NOT MUCH INFO IN THIS RACE, SO THE PRICE SHOULD BE HIGH."

    It is based upon the likelihood that THE PUBLIC'S HANDICAPPING WON'T WORK or HOW CONFUSED THE PUBLIC WILL BE in this race, and is TOTALLY AI DRIVEN.

    This will rock the world of tournament those who play tournaments, longshot, or focus on multi-race bets.
  • Dave Schwartz
    262
    PS: In Chaos races, the AI often suggests how to handicap the race, when to do NO HANDICAPPING (yes, that's a thing), and sometimes even suggests who to put money on.
  • Jim Pommier
    49
    Thanks for the update. There're several program features that I think I'll enjoy using.
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