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Tony Kofalt
393It's been quiet around here lately so I thought I would chip in a thought on a vertical play for Wednesday June 14th at Penn National Race Course. While scanning the PP's a potential improving horse popped off the page in race 5, a Pa bred MSW going 6f.
That horse was number 10, Bob's our uncle. Bob's a 4yo with only one start, not the type of horse we typically for. In that start Bob went postward at odds of 28-1 and finished 7th vs maiden claimers, So he's raising about one class level today.
Couple of things caught my eye. The first was a bullet work 8 days before his debut and the latter was the short running line included with the PP's. The running line description convinced me to go back and watch the replay. Well, Bob did get sandwiched pretty well at the start but then lodged an eye-catching run down the backside and into the far turn. Bob not only bid too early into the race but was forced vary wide while making that run. The horses that finished second and third in that event are back in this race which should only enhance his ML odds of 15-1. I'm giving this horse a long look tomorrow. While I focus on horizontal plays this may be one to include in your vertical bets.
Please give me your thoughts on Bob and good luck if you go to the windows
Tony K -
Jim Pommier
49Tough call for me. Bob did get cut-off at the start, but he also broke slowly where it looked like the #4 simply broke out into the open lane in front of Bob (but Bob did have to pull up some). Quite a few gate works tells me that they know that he doesn't break from the gate very well. Poor trainer win percentage (2 for 48), plus the jump in class. The trainer also has the #9 in this race. Maybe underneath 3rd or 4th in verticals. Good luck. -
Jack Price
27Tony, I’ll chime in and in case you decide to play “Bob”, I’ll help put him in the winner’s circle… I believe this horse has a better chance of finishing last than winning… Poor trip aside, this potential 30/1+ shot is trained by a conditioner that doesn’t appear to properly spot her horses… Her stats are woeful and it’s hard to find one positive category that she excels at?
I don’t play this track; but, based on my “general” bias notes, it seems that the outside draw might be a positive?
Regardless, I would prefer one of the first-time starters and if I could get 4/1+ on the #3, that would be my very tepid selection.
BOL -
RanchWest
503I'll play devil's advocate. I love the uncoupled angle. Jock on the #10 is the goto jock and has a high ITM %. I think he was entered a week ago, so that might explain the lack of a recent work. Should be forwardly placed, stamina might improve after the poor start last out. Should hit the board. -
Tony Kofalt
393Thanks for the feedback!! That is the nature of price horses, always more than one way to approach them. You guys all make good points! I definitely realize there are reasons to bet against him but the price may be hard to pass by. lol
More than anything I'd like to pick up the action on this board as there are some very intelligent players out here. -
Tony Kofalt
393Well once again I'm reminded that there are some very smart players on this board. Tonight Bob ran an even but very disappointing 5th. I expected him to finish with some gusto and he simply did not. Jim and Jack thanks for your honest assessment and Ranch thank you for input as always. I plan to continue to post some overlaid horses on here. Your input is appreciated and a great learning experience for me!
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Jim Pommier
49Let's try again today. BEL R3 #9 - Provision (ML 10-1). CLM30000nl2, no real standouts. NY bred returns to NY and drops in class. Nice string of works since return to BEL. Three 2nd's out of 5 starts on the turf. Not a fan of the post, but Pro has the tactical speed to get out and stalk on the pace. Franco won on Pro back in December, so he knows the horse. Like his chances to finish in the money and pull the upset if others don't fire their best.
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Jim Pommier
49Bet down to 5-1. Broke slowly and settled down near the back of the pack. Maybe because of the outside post? Thought he would be up closer on the pace. Gained ground around the turn and strong kick in the lane. Nosed out the favorite on the wire. Training double for Weaver on the day.
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Jim Pommier
49Let's try again today. BEL R7 #2 Tommy Gun (ML 10-1). NY Bred ALW. Tommy was claimed back-to-back in his last two races of 2022. Returned for Maker off the long layoff and won by +8 lengths. Has consistent good early speed. Three nice workouts since the last race. Jose takes over for his brother who's on the ML second choice. Question the added furlong, but maybe Maker knows something, or he feels this 7-furlong field came up softer than any 6-furlong races that were available. Tommy should be in contention early and looks to take the lead at the head of the stretch and hold on.
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Jack Price
27NY Bred races can be tricky trying to determine actual class…. I sometimes like to play horses like Tommy moving up and facing better off a MDC score; however, he’s going to face significantly more pace pressure and in my opinion, will have to improve “huge” to keep pace…. I see him wilting at the top of the stretch and fading from contention…. But, at 10/1 plus nothing wrong with taking a shot based on his strong connections.
BOL! -
Tony Kofalt
393Sorry guys I just saw the post. Good idea Jim! At prices lie that you don't need to be right too often! Thanks for posting Jim!!
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Tony Kofalt
393No price bomb here but I do see a mare that my run a lifetime top tomorrow at NY. In race 7, (turf only) I believe Stalla Mars is pointing to a big one. Best of all Clement has the 1 horse who will be bet to favoritism and is beatable in my eyes. Stalla Mars looks a P5 key tomorrow.
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