• Dustin Korth
    49
    Opinions, theories, or proofs on this situation?

    Horse A - you set 4/1 target odds line and goes off 4/1
    Horse B - you set 8/1 target odds line and goes off 8/1

    What's the bet?
  • RanchWest
    457
    The horse doesn't know what his odds are. If either looks like it has a legit shot at winning, it is a good bet. If torn between the two, betting both is an option.

    In today's whale climate, you must have confidence in your odds line because the tote odds can drastically change.
  • Dave Schwartz
    256
    In today's whale climate, you must have confidence in your odds line because the tote odds can drastically change.RanchWest

    Should be WILL CHANGE.
  • Tom
    82
    Both.
  • Dustin Korth
    49
    Seems a paradox though, no? If I bet both, I'm guaranteed one loss and have effectively cut my paying odds to 3/1 and 7/1. So now I have two underlays instead of one overlay.
  • Dave Schwartz
    256
    Seems a paradox though, no? If I bet both, I'm guaranteed one loss and have effectively cut my paying odds to 3/1 and 7/1. So now I have two underlays instead of one overlay.Dustin Korth

    Who you bet does not change who is or isn't an overlay.
  • William Zayonce
    38
    Dustin Korth
    48
    Seems a paradox though, no? If I bet both, I'm guaranteed one loss and have effectively cut my paying odds to 3/1 and 7/1. So now I have two underlays instead of one overlay.
    7h
    Just bet the expected best odds horse !When "dutching" multiple outcomes you're still playing just a single event and must calculate your received odds based on your TOTAL wager .In this instance ,assuming that the final odds remain the same ,your best result is 7/2 if the 8/1 shot wins (or3/2 if the 4/1 wins) and even less if you "weight" your wagers. Is that still an overlay? This amounts to betting to "not lose" rather than betting to win.
  • RanchWest
    457
    It all depends on your confidence level.

    I once saw a horse going off at 5/1 when the HORSE should have been 1/2 at most. An announcement was made that the JOCKEY had never won a race in over 500 mounts and that was the reason for the 5/1 odds. I bet the horse with CONFIDENCE. Why? Because the horse was breaking from the outside post and all the jock had to do was stay out of trouble and the outside post would afford her that opportunity. At the top of the stretch, she had the horse on a slight lead. Twice she tried to whip the horse and both times she pulled the reins and the horse wanted to go sideways. She learned her lesson, got up on the horse's neck and the horse looked like he was shot out of a cannon and won by easy daylight. The horse was never in danger of a troubled trip.
  • Tom
    82
    You betting overlays, not races, not a single event.
    What happens in a single event, a race, means nothing in the long run.
    There is no rewars for your win percentage other than bragging rights.
    What matters is a simple eqation: Retun > Wagered.
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