• RanchWest
    324
    Yesterday, after seeing some online suggestions on computing dutching (and recognizing some errors), i wrote a simple program to assist in dutching.

    While I have sometimes utilized multi-horse flat wagers, I've never really delved into dutching much.

    One of my first experiences in my testing was to hit the winner, only to have a DQ and lose the entire wager. Ugh.

    Does anyone have experience with dutching and have any suggestions? So far, i haven't been very effective with it.
  • Dave Schwartz
    202
    Does anyone have experience with dutching and have any suggestions? So far, i haven't been very effective with it.RanchWest

    Yes, it is the very core of my wagering approach.
  • Steven
    108
    This is a little document I wrote and sold on eBay, many, many, many years ago. I think I charged $6 for it and said the cost was the same as a $2 win, place, show bet so how can you pass this up. At the time it was my approach to dutching but I'm sure there are a couple of more out there. This was written with the pencil and paper handicapper in mind but lends itself easily to spreadsheets.
    Attachment
    How to Dutch and Parlay (102K)
  • Steven
    108
    Thanks!
  • Tony Kofalt
    284


    Well done Steven! Thank you for sharing
  • RanchWest
    324
    Thanks, Steven! Your parlay information is very helpful!
  • RanchWest
    324
    I guess I wasn't very clear on dutching. My program works just fine on allocating the dutch amounts. So, I get that part.

    One question I have... how much profit margin do you usually seek from your dutch? For instance, if you fund the dutch with $20, how much does that need to return for your long-term goals? I know that is a somewhat personally based question, but I would like an opinion. I am thinking that the anticipated profit would need to be at least 50%, but that is just a WAG (guess).

    There is a point at which a properly distributed dutch will return a loss no matter what horse wins. For instance, if we fund $20 and dutch 4 horses at 3/1, even, 2/1, 4/1, the wagers will be 4, 8, 5 and 3. The returns would be $16, $16, $15, $15. Certainly an extremely poor wager.

    From the Kentucky Derby video, I know Dave dutches quite a lot. I'd be interested to know how often the rest of you dutch.

    By the way, if you want my dutching program, PM me your email address. I will send it to any of the regular participants of this group. You just enter the fund amount, number of horses and odds of each and it returns the dutch amount for each and the return for that odds/wager combination. Enter less than 2 horses to exit the program. It is DOS based, but that shouldn't particularly matter. No installation required. Just one executable file.
  • Steven
    108
    It would seem to me (when I say that, it probably means "I don't do this but off the top of my head")...

    There should be some correlation between how many dutches you win and what your percent return should be. Just like you need to win 25% of your races at 3-1 to break even, dutching would require a minimum return to break even so based on some history, you may not dutch a race if it did not return your minimum dollar amount.
  • Dave Schwartz
    202
    My $0.02 worth.

    MY APPROACH TO DUTCHING
    My goal is to spread the money between my plays in a logical fashion.

    Let's say I am betting $30 (which is my base bet in a session).

    $30
    60% Flat    = $18
    40% Dutch   = $12
    

    Since the tote moves so much, the theory of Dutching to work is just not likely to work as planned.
  • RanchWest
    324
    Since the tote moves so much, the theory of Dutching to work is just not likely to work as planned.Dave Schwartz

    What if the allocation was based on an odds line instead of the tote board?

    And, how do you know when the odds don't support what you need to make?
  • Dave Schwartz
    202
    What if the allocation was based on an odds line instead of the tote board?

    And, how do you know when the odds don't support what you need to make?
    RanchWest

    That's precisely what I do now: Create an aML (artificial morning line) and bet into it, but only considering my contenders. It is the contender process that makes it work.
  • RanchWest
    324
    Thanks, Dave. I modified my program to allow a flat %.
  • RanchWest
    324
    I did a little experiment. On today's 3rd through 9th races at BEL, I funded $20 per race with 25% flat bet (on 3 horses) and the rest dutched on the same 3 horses... the top 3 Bris Prime horses based on ELO matchup. I used my odds line (similar to Tom's Ultimate Odds Line) as the basis for dutching. So, with no handicapping, I got 6 of the 7 winners. The total outlay, $20 x 7 was $140. The return was $140.50.

    My only point here is that how you wager is important. I'm sure if I played around with this it would be possible to have better results. But I got a tiny profit with NO handicapping while betting THREE horses per race.
  • RanchWest
    324
    By the way, I offered up my little experiment just as food for thought, not a serious attempt at any sort of system. Just to show that wagering is important.
  • RanchWest
    324
    I like experiments. So, in the 8th at TDN, I set up a 50% flat with the dutching based on my odds line. I liked 1A, 2, 5, 9. The 2 was a 4/5 favorite that I felt might be vulnerable.

    So, the dutched wager amounts were 4 on 1A, 8 on 2, 4 on 5 and 5 on 9.

    The final odds were 24/1 on the 1, 4/5 on the 2, 7/1 on the 5 and 4/1 on the 9. Any but the 2 would return a profit.

    They finished 1A-9-2-5 with the 1A paying $51.20 for a return of $102.40 on the $21 selection.

    My point here is that this is the way that a dutch looks when it turns out really well.

    A better paying but more risky option would have been a dime super, which paid $185.96.
  • Jim Parker
    8
    If there is any Non-HsH users reading these comments, just to let you know in Dave's H9 (HSH) program you have the ability to dutch your wager it will calculate for you the various $ amounts for each horse that you have selected, depending on the Total bet size that you put in and then if you place your bets into a study if you so desire this way you can see your dutching and flat betting results are for your wagers.
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