• Dustin Korth
    43
    Perhaps you data guys can help me with a deeper understanding.

    BRIS states that E1/E2/LP ratings are all fixed at 2 points per length regardless of distance or surface.

    Considering velocities fundamentally vary from gate to wire from surface to surface and from distance to distance...

    What would be the explanation/clarification for why these numbers shouldn't be considered fundamentally flawed?
  • RanchWest
    277
    It gets deeper. In their data files, they have pace at 2 4 6 8 10 furlongs and late and then there's speed. Seems to me that the individual pace figures should give some correlation to the speed figure. But I don't see that it does. I don't feel like I have harmed myself comparing, say, the 4f pace figures among horses. But I don't see it lining up with the speed figure. Thanks for posing this question. Maybe someone has more insight.
  • Conley
    296
    WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BRIS PACE RATINGS AND THE BRIS SPEED RATINGS ?
    Unlike the BRIS Speed Ratings which employ a differing points-per-length scale depending on the race distance, the BRIS Pace Ratings use a fixed scale of 2-points-per-length for all pace calls (2f,4f, etc.) - regardless of the race distance. The fixed 2-points-per-length scale is based on the fact that, regardless of the entire race's distance, the ground covered for any given pace call (2f,4f,etc.) is the same - that is, a 1/4 mile call is equal to two furlongs regardless of whether the entire race is six furlongs or ten furlongs (1 1/4 miles). Since the pace calls being measured are equivalent across differing distances ( a 1/2 mile call in a sprint is the same distance as a 1/2 mile call in a route), the BRIS Pace Ratings use the same 2-points-per-length scaling for all pace calls across all distances.

    HOW CAN I CALCULATE "TURN TIME" USING THE BRIS PACE RATINGS ?
    It's easy! Simply subtract the 1st call Pace Rating (2f Pace Rating for sprints, 4f Pace Rating for most routes) from the 2nd call Pace Rating (4f Pace Rating for sprints, 6f for most routes):

    BRIS Turn Time = E2 Pace Rating - E1 Pace Rating
    or
    BRIS Turn Time (sprint) = 4f Pace Rating - 2f Pace Rating
    or
    BRIS Turn Time (route) = 6f Pace Rating - 4f Pace Rating


    For example:
    BRIS PACE TURN
    E1 E2 ( E2 - E1 ) TIME
    HORSE "A" 90 96 ( 96 - 90) = +6
    HORSE "B" 92 96 ( 96 - 92) = +4
    HORSE "C" 96 96 ( 96 - 96) = +0
    HORSE "D" 100 100 (100 - 100) = +0
    Horse "A" has the fastest turn time (+6) which is one length (2 points) faster than Horse "B" (+4).
    Also, note that HORSE "C" & "D" have the same turn time (+0). Horse "D" (E1=100) ran 2 lengths (4 points) faster up to the 1st call than Horse "C" (E1= 96) but Horse "D" (E2=100) was still 2 lengths faster up to the 2nd call than than Horse "C" (E2= 96). Therefore, Horse "C" and Horse "D" ran the same speed between the first two calls.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Good explanation Conley!!
  • Dustin Korth
    43
    I understand the definitions BRIS gives that you posted. I'm not quite understanding their reasoning.

    They're saying variable distance is the reason you use variable lengths for speed figures and since they're measuring fixed distance for pace calls, they can now use fixed lengths.

    However, it's not directly the distance that is the reason for variable length on speed figures, it's the variable velocity caused by the distance.

    It's fine when they say 44 flat could be a 90 figure whether it's a 5F dirt sprint or 1m turf route...but I'm unsure if it's fair to say beaten lengths would be the same all across that scale.

    Wouldn't the measured lengths differ if Horse A at a 90 wanted to "even up" on Horse B at a 92 versus Horse C at a 60 wanting to catch Horse D at 62?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    However, it's not directly the distance that is the reason for variable length on speed figures, it's the variable velocity caused by the distance.Dustin Korth

    Really an excellent answer. :clap: :clap:

    I avoided wading into this thread because I KNEW someone would say it.
  • Tom
    48
    I have been working on BRIS pace and speed numbers for a while now, and have found some interesting things about them. There is a relationship between pace and speed, that varies by distance.
    I will clean up my data and post some stuff this weekend.
  • Colty
    3

    Have you found anything that looks strong enough to be profitable?
  • Tom
    48
    Sorry to be late, but I wanted to clean up the presentation.
    What I did was graphically display the Bris Pace/Speed Chart using the 3 sample pars
    they used to explain their pace figures. I did a regression on the three vpace figures as they related to the speed figure, and the results were they had 4 different scales that overlapped and added more
    confusion than OJ left DNA.

    I set up a chart to use to convert the pace figures to the speed figure scale. Just find the pace figure(s) and slide over to the SR coulmn to get the equivalent on the speed figure scale/
    I converted the 3 par examples to the new scale to illustrate.

    This peoceedure has a huge impact on calculating turn time if you use that factor in your play.
    It also allows better compare sprint pacelines to routes.

    The attached file is for sprints. I will post one for routes later.

    Tom
    Attachment
    Bris Conversion Pace to Speed (187K)
  • Tom
    48
    And here is the file for routes.
    Attachment
    Bris pace speed Routes (185K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Thank you Tom!! I love the way you attack the races. I enjoy reading your posts paceadvantage as well
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