• Dave Schwartz
    187
    Playing Against Low Odds Horses
    The real key to winning - IMHO - is to begin by determining if there is a BET AGAINST *FAVORITE in the race.

    I'm back to winning - just in the past few days.

    *When I say "favorite," I do not mean the post time tote favorite. My definition of a favorite is any horse that is projected to go off at below 3/1.

    When I say, "Projected," I mean using what I call the "aML." That stands for Artificial Morning Line.

    The low odds horses I don't play are not doing as badly as they have for me historically, but the process is much simpler now.

    Historically, those horses have lost big money. The $net on such horses was $0.89 for like 8 years.

    In my most recent play, I played 57 races. The low-odds horses -- those that actually went off at below 3/1... looked like this:


    ALL UNDER 3/1  (57 races)
    _____________________________
      Odds   Starts     Wins    Pct      $Net
      1.39       34       16   47.1%    $1.66
     <3.00       64       19   29.7%    $1.87
    
     Total       98       35   35.7%    $1.80
    
    
    UNDER 3/1 and NOT BET
    _____________________________
      Odds   Starts     Wins    Pct      $Net
      1.39       24        8   33.3%    $1.25
      3.49       47       10   21.3%    $1.37
    
     Total       71       18   25.4%    $1.33
     
    
    UNDER 3/1 and BET
    _____________________________
      Odds   Starts     Wins    Pct      $Net
      1.39       10        8   80.0%    $2.64
      3.49       17        9   52.9%    $3.26
    
     Total       27       17   63.0%    $3.03
    

    Special note: In this sample of live races, I did NOT mark the actual PLAY AGAINST horses. (Wish I had.)
  • RanchWest
    278
    Is there anything you can share about your bet/not bet decision process?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Is there anything you can share about your bet/not bet decision process?RanchWest

    Not willing at this time.
    I will likely turn it into a workshop for my HSH guys.

    It's like 90 seconds in HSH and 15 minutes with paper & pencil.
  • Conley
    298
    It's like 90 seconds in HSH and 15 minutes with paper & pencil.Dave Schwartz

    Technology gotta love it, Dave!
  • Rich Val
    7
    Playing Against Low Odds Horses
    The real key to winning - IMHO - is to begin by determining if there is a BET AGAINST *FAVORITE in the race.
    Dave Schwartz

    How do you determine if a horse is BET AGAINST?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    How do you determine if a horse is BET AGAINST?Rich Val

    WOW!
    You're actually here!
    Great to hear from you!

    Folks, this is the guy who taught me the 7 Days in Utopia approach!

    ANSWER: Not quite ready to go public with that, but I will DM you.
  • JRand
    6
    I'd like to get on that list as well.

    Can I message you, @Dave Schwartz?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    I'd like to get on that list as well.JRand

    Sorry, but no.

    Read this thread and you will understand.
  • JRand
    6
    OK, thanks.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    @JRand,
    You CAN message me, of course.

    But you CAN'T get the answer in return. :grin:
  • Biniak
    48
    If your intent was to rattle the cages and see who is listening...Amen you accomplished that.

    If your intent was to drive interest in the next product...Amen, Amen you accomplished that as well.

    But as a lifelong non-HSHer (aka non-insider) I would prefer you didn't publish results that cannot be validated (especially for a small sample). Otherwise, it's just like the babble on Fox or the after the fact analysts on CNBC. I won't even mention the other fake news network. Sorry!
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    I would prefer you didn't publish results that cannot be validated (especially for a small sample). Otherwise, it's just like the babble on Fox or the after the fact analysts on CNBC. I won't even mention the other fake news network. Sorry!Biniak

    You can prefer what ever you want, but I doubt you will ever get your preferences fulfilled.

    If all the conversation on a forum is only for VALIDATED RESULTS then the bar is just too high and there will be zero new ideas put forth.

    If I publish anything, it would be based upon SOME STUDY, but it can never be enough to call it rigorous, otherwise, the cost will be so high as to be unaffordable.
  • Tony Kofalt
    277


    Wow Dave- you achieved a $net of $.89 on these favs. To me that is amazing!! Great job
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Wow Dave- you achieved a $net of $.89 on these favs. To me that is amazing!! Great jobTony Kofalt

    That changed last year.

    A lot changed in 2021.

    BTW, the changes can be very abrupt.
    They're driven by the fact that the whales retool every year and bring out their new stuff in January.
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