• Steven
    108
    Here is What's Winning at Gulfstream Park up through the first week of November. This is ALL races and I'll get around to breaking it down by surface and distance later.


    Column headers are ranks of:
    ML_20 MORNING LINE ODDS
    PT_21 POST TIME ODDS
    PRIMEP_22 PRIME POWER
    QES_23 QUIRIN EARLY SPEED
    PES_24 PANDOLFO EARLY SPEED LAST RACE ONLY
    EP_25 EARLY PACE BEST 3 OF LAST 4
    LP_26 LRS_27 LATE PACE BEST 3 OF LAST 4
    BL2_28 SUM OF BEATEN LENGTHS LAST 4 RACES
    B_365_29 BEST SPEED IN LAST 365 DAYS
    HI_SPD_30 IMPROVE DECLINE BEST SPEED
    LO_SPD_31 IMPROVE DECLINE LOW SPEED
    FW_SPD_32 FW SPEED
    Q_2nd_CALL_33 QUALIFIED SECOND CALL, LIKE FULCRUM BUT LOOKS AT LAST 2 RACES
    SAR_34 SARTIN FPS COMBINATION
    TR/JO_35 TRAINER JOCKEY COMBINES WIN PERCENTAGE
    TRN_36 TRAINER WIN PERCENTAGE
    JOC_37 JOCKEY WIN PERCENTAGE
    TRN_SPEC_38 TRAINER SPECIALITY
    WO_39 HIDDEN WEOPON RATING BASED ON LAST WORKOUT
    TD_APV_40 TIME DELAYED APV
    CURYR_APV_41 CURRENT YEAR APV
    PREYR_APV_42 PREVIOUS YEAR APV
    COMBYR_APV_43 COMBINED YEAR APV
    DIST_APV_44 DISTANCE APV
    TRK_APV_45 TRACK APV
    DIRT_APV_46 DIRT APV
    TURF_APV_47 TURF APV
    ALLW_APV_48 ALL WEATHER APV
    GR%_49 GOOD RACE PERCENTAGE
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_ALL.csv (2K)
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    At first glance some good stuff there Steven. It will be cool to see how these hold up after a fe weeks
  • Steven
    108
    Thanks Tony. I'll get them separated out by distance and surface sometime today.
  • Steven
    108
    Gulfstream Dirt Sprints

    QES Quirin Early Speed is showing a positive ROI

    There were 45 horses that paid double digits, $10.00 - $114.80. If you drop the $114.80 (maiden race) horse, the ROI drops to 2.05 and if the drop the second highest payoff $46.40 (claiming race), the ROI drops to 2.01. Drop the third highest payoff of $35.40 (maiden race) and the ROI drops to 1.98.
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_Dirt_Sprints.csv (2K)
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Drop the third highest payoff of $35.40 (maiden race) and the ROI drops to 1.98.Steven

    Still shows how powerful it is.

    • How many races in the sample?
    • Is it ALL SPRINTS?
    • Have you considered breaking races out by ES Point "Shapes?"


    "Shape" means (for example):
    7-8's in the race?
  • Steven
    108
    GPX Dirt Routes
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_Dirt_Route.csv (2K)
  • Steven
    108
    Dave, there are 4613 runners in 627 dirt sprint races from 1/1/2021 to 11/7/2021 and they are not broken out by shapes.

    Interesting idea though and if I can work it in/up without having to stay up late, I'll see what I can do.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    QES Quirin Early Speed is showing a positive ROISteven

    How are you picking the horse(s) to bet?

    Most points?
    A minimum pct?
    Multiple horses?
  • Steven
    108
    Horses are ranked according to early speed points so the best early speed points in the race are ranked 1st, second best in the race is ranked 2nd, third best in the race is ranked 3rd.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187

    So, if you had a race where the horses were:
    • 8
    • 5
    • 3
    • 3
    • 1
    • 1
    • 0

    You'd play the 8?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187


    So that means a top horse "8" and a top horse "3" are all included.

    And THAT means you can easily break out the 3s from the 8s and all the others to see if there are SUBSETS that are more powerful.

    You should have a good time with that.
  • Dave Schwartz
    187


    PS: Exciting, isn't it?
  • Steven
    108
    It really never ends does it?:razz:
  • William Zayonce
    22
    What about races in which the top horse is a 5 or 6 AND also holds a 4 point edge?
    Steven
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Dave, there are 4613 runners in 627 dirt sprint races from 1/1/2021 to 11/7/2021 and they are not broken out by shapes.

    Interesting idea though and if I can work it in/up without having to stay up late, I'll see what I can do.
    Can you break it down to where the top horse is 5 or 6 ? Then break that down to those with 5 or 6 which also have a 4 point edge?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    Can you break it down to where the top horse is 5 or 6 ? Then break that down to those with 5 or 6 which also have a 4 point edge?William Zayonce

    Yes, and please have this on my desk by tomorrow morning.


    Geez, Bill. Maybe clip a couple of c-notes to this request. LOL
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Sorry Dave! Not computer savvy at all. Didn't realize the magnitude of the task suggested. LoL!
  • Steven
    108
    :rofl:
  • Steven
    108
    So that means a top horse "8" and a top horse "3" are all included.

    And THAT means you can easily break out the 3s from the 8s and all the others to see if there are SUBSETS that are more powerful.

    You should have a good time with that.


    I'm not sure I'm understanding "subsets". Are we looking at races where the best early speed number is 7-8, and then races where best early speed number is 5-6, and then races where best early speed number is 3-4 and we're doing this to see if 7-8 races produce more winnners (or more money) than 5-6 races?
  • Dave Schwartz
    187
    I'm not sure I'm understanding "subsets". Are we looking at races where the best early speed number is 7-8, and then races where best early speed number is 5-6, and then races where best early speed number is 3-4 and we're doing this to see if 7-8 races produce more winnners (or more money) than 5-6 races?Steven

    Yes.
    I'd expect that a 5-6 horse would perform better/differently in a field where there were no 7-8s.

    This is overly simplistic - and subsets cut down your sample sizes - demanding far more races. Like a full magnitude more.

    But the info you gather is huge, as are the ensuing improvements.
  • Steven
    108
    GPX Turf Sprints
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_Turf_Sprints.csv (2K)
  • Steven
    108
    And just to cover all bases

    GPX Turf Sprints in PDF
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_Turf_Sprints (88K)
  • Steven
    108
    GPX Dirt Routes in PDF
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_Dirt_Route (89K)
  • Steven
    108
    Annnnnnd....

    GPX Dirt Sprints in PDF
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_Dirt_Sprints (89K)
  • Steven
    108
    GPX Turf Routes
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_Turf_Routes.csv (2K)
  • Steven
    108
    GPX Turf Routes in PDF
    Attachment
    GPX_2021_Turf_Routes (88K)
  • Steven
    108
    Hey Gang! I hate to be the one to tell you this but my QES analysis in all of the above is incorrect. I'll post new data in a bit PLUS, I have QES broken out by QES = 7-8, QES = 5-6 and QES = 3-4. That's how I found my bug in QES.
  • William Zayonce
    22
    Excellent Steven! Thanks for including PDFs! It's very thoughtful of you!
  • Tony Kofalt
    277

    I second that thank you!!! Great stuff Steven!!
  • Tony Kofalt
    277
    Hey Steven,
    I've been looking at your data and have a question. I do see the general flow but there are 3 rows titled 1,4 and 7. Could you please explain at your convenience what each row represents? That will help me understand your sheets fully. Thanks
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