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Tony Kofalt
393As each race or wager is complete I do a quick autopsy to insure I made good decisions regarding handicapping and ticket structure. I've been in a mini slump lately and I think this autopsy process has led me to an idea that may help.
For some reason, probably just a bad habit I fell into, I've left early speed horses off too many tickets. For example, I may use 3 horses in leg 1 of a P4. And all 3 contenders show no early speed. Imagine watching a race and as the field passes the 3/8ths pole your selections are 6th, 7th and last. The odds of winning your wager are not high at that time.
I believe I need to focus more on including the best speed horses. Here is my plan of attack.
!) it is acceptable for all of your contenders to show early speed of lay close to the pace.
2) it is acceptable to include a mix of speed type (early and late) on your tickets
3) it is NOT acceptable to build contenders when none of them figure to press or be involved early.
The exception would be an off the pace 'single'.
I don't know how I let this happen but the post race autopsy gave me the insight to implement a solution.
Any thoughts? -
William Zayonce
40@Tony Kofalt
I think these 3 measures are not only acceptable but necessary, given the inherent uncertainty about how, precisely, a race will play out. However, we must be careful to avoid inclusions merely in the interest of "caution". This is why finding strong "singles" or pairs is vital -
Dave Schwartz
263I believe I need to focus more on including the best speed horses. Here is my plan of attack.
!) it is acceptable for all of your contenders to show early speed of lay close to the pace.
2) it is acceptable to include a mix of speed type (early and late) on your tickets
3) it is NOT acceptable to build contenders when none of them figure to press or be involved early.
The exception would be an off the pace 'single'.
I don't know how I let this happen but the post race autopsy gave me the insight to implement a solution.
Any thoughts? — Tony Kofalt
My research on this - and where I began with the Early Speed Series - is to do something I call SUBSET HANDICAPPING.
You saw a hint of it in the 8-Point Horse post.
That is, asking the question, "What happens if the 8-point horse doesn't win?"
Assuming the Percentages & Probabilities 2022 product does well, I will continue to do more products. My prime focus will definitely be on SUBSET HANDICAPPING.
Teaser:
My belief is that late horses are not typically predictable.
It's more like saying "Late horses win when early horses lose."
Trust me when I say that the impact of that is almost as startling as the 8-point losers. -
William Zayonce
40@Tony Kofalt
It certainly is ! However , I'm certain that my "default" position differs considerably from yours ,which makes it easy to comment.Tough balancing act William -
Tony Kofalt
393
I was never involved in the Sartin methodology but I do remember reading about that contra energy concept. Sounds like you find it viable. If I played exactas that would be interesting -
RanchWest
503Where a race might be contentious, it can be helpful in horizontals, too. For instance, if you total the top 3 Quirin speed points and get about 18, that race could probably run early OR late. So, include both an early and a late in the horizontal. Just a general guideline, of course.
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