Your data is wrong.
Current hit rate on Favs is 37.9%.

It is DOWN from 4th quarter last year, by ~4%.

This is 2026 data.
(5 days behind)

O.K. Thanks. I'll go back and check what might have gone wrong.

Hi Andrew, I was going to say that even if the favorites are down, it wouldn't laffect the number Dave gave us above by much. maybe going from 37.9 down to 37.2.

Hi Andrew, I was going to say that even if the favorites are down, it wouldn't laffect the number Dave gave us above by much. maybe going from 37.9 down to 37.2. — Gillycapper

Actually, looking at the last quarter of 2025, Favs hit 44% - glad to see that has subsided a little.

But the reason for 2026 changes appears to be a single, dominant Whale team having moving their bets from Favs to 2nd choices.

You could argue that the Whale's bets are clearly AI-driven and lack human intervention, such as trips, track bias, angles, and trainer stats. Maybe I should consider taking advantage of that. They win by trying to break even, betting on obvious horses, usually favorites, and subsidizing rebates to make a profit. Unfortunately, a lot of us don't have those resources, and this approach doesn't work for us. They clearly don't handicap races thoroughly and rarely hit a mutual that's considerable. Trying to zig when the whales are zagging is definitely the way to handicap. But this handicapping approach lacks several human elements that I think we should exploit. FYI, Joe Public is just as big as the whales.

Actually, they do not use AI.
The use Iterative Regression.

That's why we've got such an edge.

Hello Dave,

Thanks for the quick response. Is that algorithmic?

Statsitical.

Thanks, Dave

I've always been curious about that. Unfortunately, not something I would understand. BTW, I'm guessing it's 5:00 AM there. Get a life!!

I've always been curious about that. Unfortunately, not something I would understand. BTW, I'm guessing it's 5:00 AM there. Get a life!! — Dio

LOL
In bed at 8:30 and works well.

But "get a life" is a really cool idea.
:wink:

My hunch is that the whales throw in everything, including the kitchen sink, and run a logistic regression model. Their aim is to have (my guess) a 0-2% ROI. But with a 10% rebate, their true ROI is 10-12%. That may not sound like much (my models are way better, but I can't wager 200k per race), but if they play something like 80 races per day at 200k per race, that's a return of $160k PER DAY.

My hunch is that the whales throw in everything, including the kitchen sink, and run a logistic regression model. Their aim is to have (my guess) a 0-2% ROI. But with a 10% rebate, their true ROI is 10-12%. That may not sound like much (my models are way better, but I can't wager 200k per race), but if they play something like 80 races per day at 200k per race, that's a return of $160k PER DAY. — Andrew Kramer

The recognized Whale business model has been LOSE 3.5% per wagered dollar.

There is an old Whale axiom: "If you're making a flat profit, you aren't betting enough."

Then they're going totally off the large rebate they get.

Then they're going totally off the large rebate they get. — Andrew Kramer

Yes, that's how it works.
It's also how I arrived at the idea of using the hedge horses for hit rate knowing I couldn't make a profit.

Thanks, guys, great stuff. No wonder some people believe that whales might bring racing to an end.

So, let me get this straight.

1. Whales win on rebates.
2. ADW's pay for the signal and win on the percentage of takeout.
3. Tracks sell the signal and win on the percentage of takeout.

LOL... there's room for us on this list.

1. Whales win on rebates.
2. ADW's pay for the signal and win on the percentage of takeout.
3. Tracks sell the signal and win on the percentage of takeout.

LOL... there's room for us on this list. — Dio

Dio,

They can't stop us because we've CALIBRATED THEM!

Just make sure that you don't miss this seminar!
https://www.community.horsestreet.com/discussion/1244/get-you-winning-seminar-part-1-march-25/p1

Will do!