A stat I look at is the riders's record by running style. — Tom

From where do you obtain that stat, Tom?

I know that I talked to a trainer at Lone Star who told me that if a jockey didn't try to go to the front end on his horses, they wouldn't be riding for him long.

I am using it from BRIS. It appears to be 365 days.

Well, let's don't leave this one yet. I use the MRCT of the jockeys! For their record on sprints or routes or turf, whatever they're riding in the race.

Hope I didn't come across as terse. Just getting back to this.

I think you have to give prime consideration to the top 3 UOL horses. That should get a lot of winners. Then find your most successful contender process. Unless you feel strongly about one of your other contenders, you know that one of the three UOL low odds horses that is on your contenders list will win a lot of races. Then you have to look at which of these contenders will be aided by the pace setup. My contenders list needs to include both early and late horses. Will the race run early, late or chaos (late)? That's what I am doing.

Running style means so much in building a model. — Rich Val

Thanks, Rich. Do you use the published running style (E,E/P,P, etc.)? Do you model any similar information? I know some people model the %M off of their pace line.

Thanks, Tony. I appreciate your response.

By the way, I was not anticipating any right or wrong answers. Just curious as to the thought processes to get to the pros or cons of bias.

I guess the question is after you have correctly predicted the odds on the top 3 or 4 horses in a race, and knowing the top two odds horses win the lions share of races, what do you do with this? — Gregory Byrnes

Wait.

Tom, thanks for sharing.

When considering speed bias, do you only look at individual horses? Or do you in any way look at the field as a whole?

And, do you take into consideration track circumference and/or the run-up to the (first or only) turn?

What about turf racing? Many people point to a bias against the outside horses. Is that because they are running on grass? Or is it because turf courses have tighter turns? And, do you adjust for odd configurations, such as the downhill races at Santa Anita? What about the "half turns" and chutes configurations?

As with anything, you might want to take some of Benter's claims with a grain of salt.

But, we must be aware that there are whales. They do homework. On computers. The days of the four dots on a program method you learned in 1980 are probably just a fantasy world today. You have to ferret out value differently from the whales unless you have the resources to cover your bases 90 ways from Sunday.

Do whales drive down prices? Certainly! But are there good overlays every day? Yes, there are. This is one of the reasons I look forward to diving into Dave's Percentages and Probabilities. I anticipate that there's a lot of good info in there. Stuff that leads you to the fact that finding perfect horses is a path to disaster. But, which warts can you live with and which ones are disaster? That's what I am seeking.

And, it isn't much of a bet if there's no closing longshots.

At this point, I'd say that this concept finds potential chaos races. Not all fall apart. But many of the ones that do fall apart follow this pattern. One of the caveats is to proceed with caution when there's an obviously solid favorite.

This concept is fairly new, so I have not even gone through one KD with it yet.

That's why the BRIS software is typically so poor. — Dave Schwartz

It's dreadfully simple and not very helpful.

I inadvertently implied that the new product might not be a good deal for non-HSH users and that was certainly not my intent. I was just pointing out that maintaining the same data source would seem to be an especially good thing for people already on that plan as there is the familiarity aspect.

Yes.
That is the only possible business model that works for a software vendor. — Dave Schwartz

Seems that is good news for current HSH users.

So, this uses the same data as HSH?

Not 6th but Top 6. — Dave Schwartz

I continued with

within that 1st to 6th range — RanchWest

.

Flogging that dead horse. lol

If you divided the total by the number of races it could be useful! — Mark

That would give an average SR, but that wasn't the point of the calculation.

Dave's idea is to take the sorted 6th highest figure and look for an 8/1+ horse that is within that 1st to 6th range. I think Steve probably gets it now.