Comments

  • Researching negatives
    But I do make a lot of final decisions based on pace scenario. When a horse doesn't run early and doesn't run late, I look elsewhere. But, again, I will research this zero/zero play. I have included it on my quick cap decision screen.
  • Researching negatives
    Respectfully, single race examples have only slightly better than zero value.Dave Schwartz

    I will be testing the zero/zero play. But being the 4th of 6 (there was 1 scratch) in Composite Speed cannot be good for a 1/4 favorite.
  • Researching negatives
    I saw another negative today. A horse with zero Quirin points and no recent closes went off as the favorite. If the horse doesn't run early and doesn't run late, how is it going to win? This was Bistrita, R5 at FL today, 5/23/22. Went off at 1/4 odds! And, I had her with the 5th best composite speed rating in a 7-horse field. Doesn't even seem possible, though it was the low odds on my automated odds line.RanchWest

    There were 2 horses in that race that had zero Quirin points and no recent closes and in the 6-horse field, neither of the two won. The winner paid $36.20 to win. Bistrita ran second with the $2 exacta paying $85.50. Incredible. A win bet on all 4 of the other horses had high enough odds to ensure a profit.
  • Researching negatives
    OMG!!!!Dave Schwartz

    You probably recall that I told about my friend, the paper handicapper, who referred to himself as a Big Chief Tablet handicapper. :lol:
  • Researching negatives
    Here's my word array:

    aTroubleWords := {"steadied","Jostled","Bobbled","awkward","stumbled","bothered", ;
    "hopped","hit","shuffled","Pinched","hesitated","checked","boxed","squeezed", ;
    "lunged","ducked","lost footing","dwelt","Bumped hard","clipped","slammed", ;
    "blocked","slipped","Took up","Jumped","Reared","Tangle","Threw head", ;
    "Pinballed"}

    I make an abbreviated set of PP's showing only the troubled trip lines. That way I can see how many troubled trips each horse has.
  • Researching negatives
    I saw another negative today. A horse with zero Quirin points and no recent closes went off as the favorite. If the horse doesn't run early and doesn't run late, how is it going to win? This was Bistrita, R5 at FL today, 5/23/22. Went off at 1/4 odds! And, I had her with the 5th best composite speed rating in a 7-horse field. Doesn't even seem possible, though it was the low odds on my automated odds line.
  • Researching negatives
    specifically looking at poor/bad or "negative" biases that I can seeConley

    Yeah, I am thinking that very few people look at the negatives. For biases, the only discussions I recall are against outside posts on the turf. Not even a lot of discussion of outside posts in routes, even when the runup to the first turn is short. Some of the dashes have short runups to the turn, too... I've seen some tracks where a 1-2-3 post tri box on dashes was winning disproportionately, suggesting that the outside posts sucked.
  • Researching negatives
    I also flag horses with troubled trips. I figure that a horse should also be forgiven for the occasional troubled trip, but when it keeps happening, maybe it isn't a coincidence.
  • Researching negatives
    How are you doing that?
    Comments?
    Dave Schwartz

    Yes, based on a list of keywords that appear in the long version of the comments. I realize this is not perfect, but I am thinking that it would be data that is very under-utilized. It took me about an hour or so to set it up and after that it is fairly low maintenance.
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    Thanks, I have Dave's strength calculation from one of his products. I will take a look. My apologies for dragging out my research one post at a time.
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    I may have found an important stat. 5 of 9 horses that were #1 in prime power won. So, ones not #1 in prime power had 2 of 8 as winners. Unfortunately, 2 of the 4 droppers above 6 points were #1 in prime power, but only 1 of those 2 won.
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    Correction, 17 horses qualified, not 19.

    3 at a 4 point drop all lost.
    6 of 9 at a 5 or 6 point drop won.
    3 of 4 at a drop above 6 points lost.
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    LeBlanc IVH "false favourite."Lawrence

    Have you found this to be effective? On Sunday, 5/22/22, I used a BRIS par drop of greater than 3 and and a morning line of less than 3.01. That did not pan out very well on the day. Of 19 horses, there were 7 winners. There was only one dropper of greater than 12 par points and at a drop of 21 that one lost on 23 days rest. 6 of the 7 winners were dropping either 5 or 6 points. There were only 3 losers dropping 5 or 6 points.

    The payoffs ranged from $2.50 to $6.80, so maybe that's just something to live with since 12 of 19 lost.

    Do you have any suggestions as to a way to get this to work better? There was a winner that dropped 12 points. I looked at days away and I didn't locate anything effective. Should I only look at the massive droppers? Or was my sample size just too small?

    Or do you think this is only useful as part of an odds line?
  • Tom's Ulitmate Odds Line - The Software
    Can't recall at the moment whether it was RanchWest, @Biniak, or @Steven, but it was definitely one of them

    A BOLO is a BET AGAINST LOW ODDS horse.
    Dave Schwartz

    I think it was Biniak who dubbed it BA LO.
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    I worked all day yesterday and did not post for the "jinx" when I post early so I had 8-1-5-4 in case anyone wanted to knowConley

    You had the exacta in your top 3. Own your skill.
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    Hey that was my 10k bet you're making fun of.Biniak

    My condolences. The memorial service will be on Tuesday.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Bris has lifetime best SR listed to the right of the Lifetime consistency box. See #3 Thenorthrembers.Biniak

    Yes, but this angle requires the lifetime best 4f pace, too.
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    Probably just got a bad trip :lol:Dustin Korth

    That's hilarious!
  • 2022 Preakness Stakes
    Fenwick finished last, 40 1/2 lengths behind.